SportsRatings: College Basketball

California escapes from the graveyard

Teams in the Dance Chance that are listed with odds of <0.1% are essentially considered no-hopers, that is, no matter what they do from that point on they're not getting an at-large bid. But occasionally a team with almost zero chance suddenly has a tiny chance again. Here are four teams and how they did it.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/01)
218. Idaho St.                 6-10  14-17   BSky    0.4   +0.4        

225. Pacific                  10-9   12-19   WCC     0.2   +0.2        
226. California                3-13   4-27   P12     0.2   +0.2        

230. Bowling Green             8-7   14-17   MAC     0.1   +0.1

Idaho State was in the graveyard last week but beat Weber State—their 3rd straight win—to climb out and now have a 0.4% of getting an at-large bid. Projected at 14-17 it's still very unlikely and with 10 losses still almost impossible in the Big Sky, but the hope is there after improving from a 10-21 projection last week. The best the Bengals can probably do is stay above water a little longer, unfortunately.

Pacific was projected to be 9-22 last week but now look to be 12-19. That gives them a 0.2% chance of an at-large, and since they're in the West Coast Conference they have a prayer. They beat San Diego and Pepperdine last week, why not Gonzaga in two weeks and St. Mary's in February?

California is a team that might have a measurable chance, but they need to be damn near perfect. They've been in the graveyard for many weeks but after 3 wins in 4 games—including Stanford, 92-70, last Friday—the Bears look to be playing much better than their 0-12 start would suggest and have alleged 0.2% at-large odds. But 13 losses is already cutting it close even if they have that at the end of the season! Projected at 4-27, we don't see their freedom lasting long but who knows?

Finally Bowling Green had almost no chance last week and now has...almost no chance. 0.1% is technically 1 in 1000 but that seems long odds for a MAC team, even with only 7 losses so far. But the Falcons have won four straight, the last two over actual D-I teams and are 2-0 in conference play.

Undoubtedly these teams will be swept up among the growing wave of "<0.1%" teams, and maybe eventually become "0.0" teams meaning they'll be locked into zero chance odds. But for now they're keeping their slim hope alive. You can escape from the graveyard, but in most cases you'll still need to win your conference to go to the Big Dance.

2023 Week 9: Kansas State goes Wild

Week 9 was a wild one so let's get right into it. We'll compare to last week's projection, not the Thursday update, since I didn't review things since then. Plus it makes for more dramatic results.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/01)
  1. Kansas                   14-1   29-2    B12    95.4   +2.6    1    1
  2. Purdue                   15-1   30-1    B10    95.0   +1.8    1    1
  3. Tennessee                13-2   29-2    SEC    94.7   +2.6    1    2
  4. Connecticut              15-2   29-2    BE     94.3   +0.7    1    1

Kansas takes over as the overall #1 seed from UConn, who lost their 2nd game but held on to a 1-seed just barely. The Jayhawks' projection bumped up from 28-3 to 29-2 and that would result in the top seed. Even apparently over a 30-1 Purdue. The Boilermakers lost a game they were supposed to win—Rutgers at home—and then won a game they were supposed to lose—Ohio State on the road—and the upshot was somehow an upgrade from 29-2 to 30-1. It's very unlikely any of these teams will end up with the stellar records shown here, but teams below will have extra losses too. It will come down to conference tournaments in the end.

Tennessee made the move back into the top seed line; big wins over Mississippi State (87-53) and South Carolina (85-42) put them #1 in Strength. 

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/01)
  5. Houston                  16-1   30-1    Amer   93.9   +2.2    2    2
  6. Alabama                  13-2   28-3    SEC    93.6   +2.2    2    2
  7. UCLA                     14-2   28-3    P12    93.2   +2.2    2    2
  8. Arizona                  14-2   28-3    P12    92.8   +0.3    2    1
  9. Gonzaga                  14-3   27-4    WCC    92.4   +1.8    3    3
 10. Rutgers                  11-5   25-6    B10    92.1   +7.0    3    6
 11. Florida Atlantic         14-1   30-1    CUSA   91.7   +2.2    3    3
 12. Texas                    13-2   23-8    B12    91.3   +1.5    3    3

Arizona was looking fantastic until they inexplicably lost at home to Washington State, 75-61. That dropped them out of the top line to the last 2-seed, and made UCLA the new favorite in the Pac-12. The big news among the 3-seeds is Rutgers, who upset Purdue on the road, and that was enough to move them from a 6-seed to a 3-seed, despite the fact that they turned around and lost at home to Iowa.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/01)
 13. Charleston               16-1   30-1    CAA    91.0   +4.1    4    5
 14. Ohio St.                 10-5   24-7    B10    90.6   +0.3    4    3
 15. Kansas St.               14-1   23-8    B12    90.2  +46.8    4   13p
 16. Duke                     12-4   24-7    ACC    89.9   +1.5    4    4
 17. Xavier                   13-3   25-6    BE     89.5   +4.8    5    7
 18. North Carolina           11-5   23-8    ACC    89.1   +1.5    5    5
 19. Virginia                 11-3   24-5    ACC    88.7    0.0    5    4
 20. Saint Mary's             14-4   26-5    WCC    88.4   +6.8    5    7

Charleston now has the longest winning streak in the country at 15, and they're favored to continue it all the way to 30-1 which could put them in line for a 4-seed. Again, we'll believe it when we see it, as every team stubs their toe somewhere. That might come as soon as Wednesday for the Cougars at UNC Wilmington. Meanwhile Ohio State was riding high last week but lost a heartbreaker to Purdue at home and then fell to Maryland on the road, both games they were tagged to probably win. It only cost them a seed as they're still neck and neck with Purdue and Rutgers as the team in the wild Big Ten.

Speaking of wild, how about Kansas State? The quietest 1-loss team suddenly burst onto the scene two weeks ago upsetting West Virginia in overtime, then last week they upset both Texas—116-103—and Baylor in another overtime game. The Wildcats aren't too highly thought of in our Strength power rating, where they are #20, but their résumé is already pretty great now and they zoom from a Last Four In play-in team to a sold 4-seed, gaining almost 50% in their odds of making the tournament.

Two other big movers are Xavier, who continued their recent winning ways, and St. Mary's, who at least for now rates as the best team in the West Coast Conference. Both are up two seeds from last week.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/01)
 21. San Diego St.            12-3   23-7    MWC    88.0   +0.7    6    5
 22. Iowa St.                 12-2   20-10   B12    87.6  +22.7    6   10
 23. Baylor                   10-5   18-13   B12    87.3   +0.7    6    5
 24. Kent St.                 12-3   28-3    MAC    86.9   +3.8    6    7
 25. N.C. State               13-4   24-7    ACC    86.5  +53.6    7    
 26. West Virginia            10-5   20-11   B12    84.8   -1.0    7    6
 27. Arkansas                 12-3   24-7    SEC    83.3   -4.7    7    4
 28. Utah St.                 13-3   25-6    MWC    81.7   -3.7    7    6

Another big mover in the Big Twelve is Iowa State. The Cyclones beat both Oklahoma and TCU on the road last week, improving their outlook to 20-10 which is great for the parity-cursed conference. In the ACC NC State crushed Duke 84-60 at home and followed that with a road win at Virginia Tech, enough to take the Wolfpack from an under-the-bubble team to a 7-seed. Meanwhile Arkansas went the other direction, dropping from a 4-seed after losing to Auburn.

Mountain West, part one: San Diego State drops a seed but takes over as the top team in the Mountain West conference. The Aztecs and Utah State, who also falls a seed, have been mainstays in the seedings while a range of other teams have been mostly stuck on the bubble.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/01)
 29. Creighton                 9-7   22-9    BE     80.2   +7.6    8    9
 30. Marquette                13-4   23-8    BE     78.6   +7.6    8    9
 31. New Mexico               14-2   24-6    MWC    77.0  -12.1    8    4
 32. Indiana                  10-5   20-11   B10    75.5  -10.7    8    6
 33. Nevada                   14-3   23-8    MWC    73.9  +53.1    9    
 34. Oral Roberts             13-3   26-3    Sum    72.3   -3.2    9    8
 35. Illinois                 10-5   20-11   B10    70.8   -6.3    9    8
 36. Boise St.                12-4   23-8    MWC    69.2  +55.9    9    
 37. Colorado                 11-6   18-13   P12    67.6   +4.2   10   10
 38. Sam Houston St.          12-4   26-4    WAC    66.1  -14.0   10    7
 39. UNLV                     12-3   23-7    MWC    64.5  +42.2   10     
 40. Iowa                     10-6   19-12   B10    63.0  +31.6   10     

Mountain West, part two: Last week's MWC auto-bid was New Mexico, but the Lobos fall from a 4-seed to an 8-seed after getting their first loss—to Fresno State and also their 2nd loss, to UNLV. The Rebels ride that win to a 10-seed placement this week, just as Boise State rides their upset over Utah State to a 9-seed and Nevada has two solid wins that improve their outlook from 20-11 to 23-8 and a 9-seed. The teams are up 42%, 56%, and 53% respectively as the MWC looks to have six teams in the Big Dance. That can change quickly, as seen by this week's movement; just 7 days ago, hopes for more than 3 bids were fading fast.

Sam Houston State is still tops in the WAC but they keep falling victim to conference upsets; this time it was Grand Canyon, at home, in overtime, dropping the Bearkats to a 10-seed and making it more and more likely they'll need to win the WAC tournament.

And just when it looked like were out of it, Iowa bounces back with a home win over Indiana and a road win over red-hot Rutgers. Still not back to a 20-win projection, however, they'll have to work hard to stay above the bubble. Speaking of the Hoosiers, two losses this week has turned them into a pedestrian 20-11 8-seed, far from the 1-seed we projected a month ago!

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/01)
 41. TCU                      13-2   18-13   B12    61.4  +27.0   11    
 42. Providence               14-3   22-9    BE     59.8  +40.5   11    
 43. Miami FL                 13-2   21-9    ACC    58.3  -11.2   11    9
 44. Washington St.            7-10  16-15   P12    56.7  +48.3   11    
 45. Virginia Tech            11-5   22-9    ACC    55.1   -2.3   12   11
 46. Auburn                   12-3   22-9    SEC    53.6   -2.3   12   11
 47. Arizona St.              13-3   22-9    P12    52.0   +3.6   12   13
 48. Dayton                   11-5   26-5    A10    50.5   +0.6   12p  12
 49. Oklahoma St.              9-6   16-15   B12    48.9   -2.5   12p  12
 50. Texas Tech               10-5   17-14   B12    47.3  -11.6   13p  11
 51. Utah                     12-5   19-12   P12    47.0  -19.5   13p  10
 52. Maryland                 11-5   20-11   B10    45.4  +15.5        
 53. Mississippi St.          12-3   23-8    SEC    43.8   -3.0        13
 54. Pittsburgh               11-5   22-9    ACC    42.3  +16.9        
 55. UCF                      12-4   24-6    Amer   40.7   +3.3        
 56. Northwestern             12-3   19-12   B10    39.2  +30.4

The Bubble: TCU's ascendence to an 11-seed means 9 of 10 teams in the Big Twelve are currently in the seeding, though three of those (TCU along with Oklahoma State and Texas Tech) are precarious bubble teams with a lot of season left to play. The Horned Frogs upset Baylor to get here, but broke their 11-game winning streak with a loss to Iowa State.

Providence took a big step into an 11-seed after beating UConn last Wednesday; the Friars have now won 9 straight. But the biggest upset was Washington State beating Arizona in Tucson, and it wasn't close at 74-61. The Cougars are clearly the best 10-loss team in the nation and look to barely finish above .500 which would put them somewhere on the bubble, but they'll probably have to do better than 16-15 unless they're planning on winning the Pac-12 tournament.

Utah drops from a comfy 10-seed to the Last Team In after falling to Oregon Saturday, while Mississippi State falls from a 13-seed to one of the First Four Out. The Bulldogs are 12-3 after starting 11-0.

Others hoping for a break include Maryland, who doesn't quite make our seeding despite beating Ohio State on Sunday; Pitt who upset Virginia but lost to Clemson by a point at home; and Northwestern, yet another Big Ten hopeful, upset both Illinois and Indiana this week and it still wasn't quite enough. They have Rutgers at home next, and that would do it.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/01)
 57. Iona                     11-5   26-5    MAAC   37.6  -22.9   13   11
 58. North Texas              13-3   25-6    CUSA   36.0   -2.9        14p
 59. Missouri                 13-2   22-9    SEC    34.5  -20.0        12
 60. Marshall                 13-4   26-5    SB     32.9  -29.1   13   10
 61. Utah Valley              13-4   25-6    WAC    31.3  -10.6        14p
 62. Memphis                  12-4   23-8    Amer   29.8  -15.2        13p
 63. UAB                      12-4   25-6    CUSA   28.2  -24.7        12
 64. James Madison            11-6   25-6    SB     26.6  -51.9         8
 65. Bradley                  11-6   23-8    MVC    25.1  -48.9   13    8
 66. Oregon                    9-7   19-12   P12    23.5   +7.2        
 67. Kentucky                 10-5   19-12   SEC    22.0  -14.0        
 68. Clemson                  13-3   23-8    ACC    20.4  +15.7        
 69. Seton Hall                9-8   15-16   BE     18.8   +8.6        
 70. Liberty                  12-5   26-5    ASun   17.3  -29.2   14   13
 71. USC                      11-4   19-12   P12    15.7   +8.0        
 72. Southern Miss            14-3   25-6    SB     14.1  -53.9         9

Mid-Major massacre: To achieve some of the lofty seedings we give the mid-major champs, they have to be near-perfect in the games they're supposed to win. As the season progresses, upsets invariably happen and unlike the Major conference teams, there's nowhere to "make up" for an upset. For example Iowa got upset a few times which sunk their odds, but they beat some high-ranked teams to get back into it. That opportunity isn't there for a mid-Major.

Iona in the MAAC is a lower bubble team but at this point won't make it as an at-large even if they win out. They lost to Quinnipiac last week and no one else on their schedule is a great win. And although Marshall takes over as Sun Belt favorite, they need to win the league as they fall from a 10-seed to a 13-seed after an upset loss to Georgia Southern. The Herd is now ahead of James Madison who drops from an 8-seed after two crushing home upset losses last week to Texas State and Appalachian State. Bradley falls from an 8-seed after losing to Murray State but is still the front-runner in the Missouri Valley. And Liberty's slim chance for a backup plan at-large were hurt by their loss to Eastern Kentucky. 

Other teams out: North Texas just slips out of the seedings despite two wins, while C-USA mate UAB dropped two games—one to conference leader FAU by two points, the other to lowly FIU in overtime. Utah Valley hoped to give the WAC another team but they slide down despite a 10-game winning streak; apparently the projection is deciding the WAC should be a 1-bid league. Same with the American as Memphis drops out despite beating East Carolina last week.

Missouri's push into the seedings suffered a setback as they lost to Arkansas and barely beat Vandy at home. And Southern Miss couldn't sustain their 9-seed, falling to Louisiana 75-61 and dropping well off the bubble.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/01)
 73. UC Irvine                10-5   27-5    BW     12.6   +0.8   14   14
 96. Youngstown St.           12-5   26-5    Horz    4.2   -0.7   14   15
 97. Montana St.              10-7   24-7    BSky    4.0   +0.9   15   16
116. Furman                   12-5   24-7    SC      3.0   +0.2   15    
121. Longwood                 12-5   24-7    BSth    2.9   -0.5   15   15
125. Colgate                   9-7   24-7    Pat     2.8   +0.0   15   16p
126. SIU Edwardsville         12-5   26-5    OVC     2.8   -0.4   16   16
131. North Carolina Central    7-8   20-8    MEAC    2.6   -0.7   16   15
134. Chattanooga              10-7   22-9    SC      2.6   -1.2        15
148. UMass Lowell             14-3   26-5    AE      2.2   -6.4   16p  14
149. Grambling St.             9-6   23-7    SWAC    2.2   -0.8   16p  16p
168. Texas A&M Corpus Chris   10-6   24-7    Slnd    1.7   +0.2   16p    
200. Nicholls St.              7-8   20-10   Slnd    0.8   -1.0        16p
296. Fairleigh Dickinson      10-8   18-13   NEC    <0.1    0.0   16p    
304. Wagner                    8-7   16-11   NEC    <0.1    0.0        16p

1-bid Conferences: These are the real 1-bidders, the conferences where you can be sure there won't be an at-large in the bunch. In the Southern Conference Furman takes over from Chattanooga after two big wins—97-72 and 70-56 over The Citadel and East Tennessee State. The Mocs meanwhile fell to UNC Greensboro.

Texas A&M Corpus Christi is now the Southland favorite. They played Incarnate Word twice last week, home and away, and won both, 91-61 and 80-71. Nicholls State lost to Northwestern State and is now pretty far behind the Islanders.

It's a lot closer in the Northeast Conference, where Fairleigh Dickinson has a slim edge over Wagner now. Two losses by the Seahawks put them below the Knights, who have won four in a row but still are in the zombie territory of practical zero-chance for an at-large bid regardless of future performance.

Is St. Mary's better than Gonzaga?

Today I noticed that St. Mary's had passed Gonzaga on Kenpom.com, and I wondered—could that be true? Could St. Mary's be a better team than Gonzaga right now?

As of Saturday afternoon St. Mary's is #10 in Pomeroy and Gonzaga #14. This is after Gonzaga struggled past Santa Clara 81-76 and St. Mary's destroyed Portland 85-43.

The latter was more of a catalyst, as the Bulldogs were #14 before their win and the Gaels were #15. It was their big win that moved them up to #10.

That made me wonder how much Kenpom's recency bias had to do with the rating. The big margin itself certainly helped, but Pomeroy diminishes the impact of games that are expected to be blowouts. On the other hand, recent games are counted more heavily, so even if you diminish a big blowout, the fact that the big blowout occurred recently sort of adds it back in—for the time being. Once that game is more in the past it doesn't matter as much, but if you count recent games more heavily, that big blowout is still front and center right now.

So I compared his rankings to the current (as of Saturday, January 7th's games) for the Strength power rating, which doesn't count recent results more heavily:

#   Team                    record    rating
8.  Ohio St.                  10-4     21.00
9.  Rutgers                   11-4     20.69
10. Saint Mary's              14-4     20.51
11. Texas                     13-2     20.21
12. Gonzaga                   14-3     19.94

So in Strength, St. Mary's has passed Gonzaga as of Saturday. 

That made me wonder—has St. Mary's ever been better than Gonzaga? In the Modern Gonzaga era, I mean—the era that started with the 'Zags 1999 Elite Eight run.

The answer is yes, but not very often. Here's a list:

• In 2010, St. Mary's finished #29 in Pomeroy with Gonzaga #44

and that's it. In the last 24 seasons, it's happened once by the end of the year.

And it doesn't mean that St. Mary's will hold their slim lead over Gonzaga this year either. The teams have to play at least twice this season, plus probably a third time in the WCC tournament, so it's still up in the air who ends up the best.

But it's interesting  because Gonzaga was clearly favored to be better again this year after being a top, dominant team last year. We had them #1 pre-season with St. Mary's just #71. Pomeroy started St. Mary's at #47 and Gonzaga #3.

In the end it's an interesting development that's worth watching unfold. It's been a while since we don't know which team is the best team in the West Coast Conference.

Another note: St. Mary's played another game this week prior to the Portland beatdown, beating Academy of Art 84-64. We have no idea how good Academy of Art is, since they are Division II but they don't seem to be a very good D-II team really, and beating them by 20 points is arguably St. Mary's worst performance of the year. But since they haven't played any other D-II teams, this game gets lost in the shuffle and doesn't affect their rating. Pomeroy doesn't count it either.

It's probably just as well to throw that game out, since it's hard to believe St. Mary's took the game seriously, and beating a team by 20 is usually the same as winning by 40. But the fact that they beat Portland—clearly a better team than Academy of Art—by 42, and that game gets counted, suggest that the Gaels sort of get a cherry-picked boost from the game where they really got fired up, while a game where they went through the motions doesn't get counted. Average the two performances together and I don't think St. Mary's makes the jump in the ratings that they made.

It's also worth pointing out that from a résumé standpoint, Gonzaga is far superior. Both teams have a handful of losses, but Gonzaga lost to top teams Texas, Purdue, and Baylor. St. Mary's did lose to Houston, and nearly-undefeated New Mexico,  but also fell to Washington and Colorado State. Their best wins are over San Diego State, Oral Roberts, and North Texas, while the Zags have wins over Alabama, Xavier, Kentucky, and Michigan State. We put Gonzaga #4 in Success with St. Mary's just #56, and ESPN's BPI lists the teams' Strength of Record as #9 and #62 respectively.

Gonzaga and St. Mary's don't play each other until February 4 at St. Mary's, and the return is on February 25th just before the WCC tournament starts.