All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
UConn Huskies
Seed: 4
Record: 29-8
Conference: Big East
vs.
Miami Hurricanes
Seed: 5
Record: 29-7
Conference: ACC
Date: Saturday, April 1
Time: 8:49 pm Eastern
Location: Houston, TX
Channel: CBS
The two best teams in the tournament are on this side of the bracket.
UConn Miami
Power Ratings
Strength: #2 Strength: #33
Median: #6 Median: #27
Markov: #1 Markov: #13
Pomeroy: #1 Pomeroy: #22
Offense: #3 Offense: #5
Defense: #11 Defense: #104
BPI: #3 BPI: #26
LRMC: #4 LRMC: #41
Other Measures:
SOS: #35 SOS: #64
Tempo (Offense): #239 Tempo (Offense): #113
Consistency: #292 Consistency: #178
2nd half season: #2 2nd half season: #19
NCAA Tournament: #1(#1) NCAA Tournament: #2(#2)
MegaScreen MegaScreen
Winner: NA Winner: NA
Title Game: #6 Title Game: NA
UConn and Miami have played the best basketball of any teams in the tournament, #1 and #2 of the 4 teams left and also #1 and #2 of all tournament teams, period. But it's not very close: UConn has been about 10 points(!) better than the Hurricanes in those four games. And that dominance shows up in the full-season stats, too: UConn is now #2 in Strength while Miami is still just #33. The Huskies are up to #1 in Pomeroy while Miami has yet to crack the top 20. It's #3 to #26 in the BPI. Of course UConn started at #6, #4, and #6 in those ratings, and Miami started at #48, #40, and #36 so the 'Canes have jumped 15, 18, and 10 spots. But they really haven't gained ground on the Huskies. Miami's biggest jump is in our Markov implementation, where they've gone from #31 to #13. UConn is now the #1 team there, up from #4 (the LRMC doesn't update after Selection Sunday).
Miami's offense is now top 5 in Pomeroy but their defense has yet to crack the top 100. Say goodbye to those endless KenPom "factoids" posted on Twitter about how "no team has made the Final Four without a top 25 defense" (or top 50, and usually citing post-tournament figures). Now they'll be "out of 84 Final Four teams, only one has had a defense worse than #100." The relevant number is #133, which is Miami's pre-tournament defensive efficiency ranking, and the worst prior was actually #126 by 2011 VCU. Since VCU's defense ended up #78, it doesn't get cited as being >100 as it should, but Miami might still get both records—worst Selection Sunday and end-of-season defense.
UConn meanwhile has the offense and defense ratings we're accustomed to seeing from a winning 1-seed, not a horrible mis-seeded 4-seed. And of the four teams left, the Huskies are the only ones who made the MegaScreen's cut to be a Runner-up. They got screened out of the Winner's circle due to having no NCAA tournament wins the last 3 times out. That's right—every single winner from 1985 to the present has always won a tournament game in the past three tournaments. If UConn wins it all, that goes out the door. If Miami wins it all, then obviously the Defensive Efficiency screen gets a big adjustment (the winner has never had a worse Selection Sunday Pomeroy defense than #25. That's the case where the #25 is still relevant—for now.
Miami also violates 5 other screens for being runner-up, so if they beat UConn there will be adjustments all over, mostly related to their weak pre-tourney Strength. And the worst defense of a runner-up has been #69 by 2011 Butler—same year VCU set the (previous) low bar for defensive efficiency in the Final Four.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (10): =(1)Alabama+15, =(6)Iowa St.+18, (6)Creighton+9, (2)Marquette+15, (11)Providence+18, =(11)Providence+7, =(13)Iona+24, =(5)Saint Mary's+15, =(8)Arkansas+23, =(3)Gonzaga+28
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (4): =(1)Alabama+15, (6)Creighton+9, =(8)Arkansas+23, =(3)Gonzaga+28
- Wins vs. Final Four (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (6): @(3)Xavier-10, @(11)Providence-12, @(2)Marquette-6, (3)Xavier-3, @(6)Creighton-3, =(2)Marquette-2
- Other losses (2): St. John's-11, @Seton Hall-1
Overview: As mentioned UConn was the best team in the country until late December; they had beaten 1-seed Alabama 82-67and 6-seed Iowa State in Portland and raced to a 14-0 start. But around game 13 they downshifted a gear it seems; the wins over Georgetown (84-73) and Villanova (74-66) at home weren't dominant. Sure enough, losses followed, most but not all to tournament teams. In all they lost 6 of 8 before slowly recovering their mojo. Finally at the end they put together another solid win streak of six games that ended in a 2-point loss to 2-seed Marquette. Have they truly regained their early season form? The first two games of the tournament said yes, and it's impossible to argue after the Arkansas and Gonzaga games, their best efforts of the season period.
6-9 forward Adama Sanogo is the team's leader in points (16.8) and rebounds (7.3). The Huskies are a tall team, who often have every player on the court at 6-5 or over and also have a 7-2 backup center. UConn beat Iona behind Sanogo's 28 points (on 13 of 17 shooting). The Huskies were even more impressive against St. Mary's, winning 70-55 against the tough 5-seed; this time Sanogo had 24 on 11 of 16 shooting. Jordan Hawkins led with 24 including 9 of 9 free throws in the 88-65 blowout of Arkansas. And in case you thought they couldn't beat Gonzaga even worse than Arkansas, you'd be wrong: the Huskies thrashed the Zags 82-54, holding Drew Timme to 12 points while Hawkins had 20.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): =(11)Providence+10, (11)N.C. State+7, (4)Virginia+2, (5)Duke+22, (11)Pittsburgh+2, =(12)Drake+7, =(4)Indiana+16, =(1)Houston+14, =(2)Texas+7
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): =(1)Houston+14, =(2)Texas+7
- Wins vs. Final Four (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =(8)Maryland-18, @(11)N.C. State-OT, @(5)Duke-2, @(11)Pittsburgh-3, =(5)Duke-7
- Other losses (2): @Georgia Tech-6, Florida St.-1
Overview: Miami popped off to a 13-1 start, beating 11-seed Providence in the pre-conference season as well as UCF and Rutgers while losing only to 8-seed Maryland. They beat 11-seed NC State and 4-seed Virginia before a stunning loss to 15-18 Georgia Tech started a 4-4 skid. All those losses were on the road and the Canes marched on, winning 7 straight including an 81-59 win over 5-seed Duke (the only tournament team in that stretch). Then came the FSU debacle, their first home loss, to a 9-23 team, on a last-second heartbreaking shot by their hated rival. It seems to have done something to them.
The Hurricanes didn't play well at all at the very end. It wasn't just the Duke loss in the final game—where they lost Norchad Omier early in the contest—but all of their last four games: the home loss to Florida State, the 2-point home win over 11-seed Pitt, the 2-point win over Wake Forest—all were basically as bad as the Duke loss. Omier ended up playing during the NCAA tournament after all.
Miami's scoring leader is senior guard Isaiah Wong who leads the team with 16.2 points, 3.4 assists and 1.4 steals. Nigel Pack scored 21 in the win over Drake. The Hurricanes then blew away Indiana late, 85-69, behind Wong's 27 points. They topped that by upsetting 1-seed Houston 89-75 as Pack scored 26 points. After beating the 1-seed they took care of the 2-seed as well with a late run that erased a double-digit deficit. Jordan Miller had 27 points with 7 of 7 FG shooting and 13 of 13 from the free throw line.
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Game Analysis: Like I noted above, these teams are playing the best of any two teams in the tournament, but UConn is far and away ahead of Miami. The Huskies are playing as well as any team during the 64+ team era over the first four games. Only Villanova in 2018 won all their games by double digits, and so far the Huskies are playing 7 points better than those Wildcats. They have the potential to be perhaps the best NCAA tournament team of the 64-team era, even if they won't get credit for it due to not facing a top 2 seed the whole time.
But UConn has had trouble with consistency this season. Mostly that's due to a mid-season lull where they lost 6 out of 8 games. It started right when the Big East season started, so maybe teams familiar with the Huskies were able to beat them, or they didn't have the same attitude against familiar opponents that they did against non-conference foes? Whatever the cause, the Huskies were playing pretty bad there for a while. And if a team ever plays bad, that bad play can come back to bite them.
The same could be said of Miami, though, as the Canes suffered some pretty bad losses themselves, right up to the end of the season. They've played great during the tournament and their defense has been a lot better, but like UConn if they fall back to their old habits even just a little, they suddenly aren't very good any more.
So the question is: which team keeps things rolling? Miami never looked like a Final Four team this year, while UConn looked like the #1 team early on. They've been much better than the Canes all season and especially during the tournament. Miami's defensive weakness is their biggest problem, particularly their poor shooting defense.
But Miami has won despite it because of their offense. They shoot the ball very well, rebound well, and shoot 78% from the line. Trouble is, UConn defends both the 2 and 3 point shot very well, and rebounds well on defense. They block shots, too (#25 in the nation). They're a good matchup for Miami's offense.
And the Husky offense is now #3 in efficiency. They're #2 in rebounding while Miami is poor in defensive rebounding. And they shoot 76% themselves. The only advantage Miami has when UConn has the ball is steals, potentially.
Miam's offense has become even better over the tournament, and their defense has improved quite a bit. But in the same span, UConn has improved even more. Both offenses are elite now, but while Miami is trying to make their defense less of a liability, UConn's defense is becoming national title worthy.
Vegas Line:
UConn by 5 1/2
Power rating: spread
UConn by 8.6
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
UConn: 78%
Miami: 22%
Vegas has a pretty slim line for this game compared to our power rating, which has UConn by 8 or 9, and gives the Huskies a 78% chances to win based on game performance comparisons. 4-seed have played 5-seeds a lot, of course, but only once in the Final Four, and the 4-seed won. But in the 2nd round it's a very common matchup: 76 times total, with the 4-seed winning 42 or 55%. That means UConn is far ahead of the normal expectation, which is not surprising given their placing in the various power ratings.
Using just the 4-game sample in the tournament, UConn wins 87.5% of the 16 cross-comparisons, and wins by 10.3 points.
Bottom line: Miami is playing like a Final Four team, but UConn is playing like a team that could win the tournament in any year.
Final prediction: UConn 82, Miami 72
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.