SportsRatings: College Basketball

Oklahoma State, Pittsburgh will reveal most about the Committee's workings

Two days of action before (and on) Selection Sunday.

Rank Team                      Rec    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(Mar 9)
  1. Kansas                   27-6    B12   100.0    0.0    1    1
  2. Alabama                  27-5    SEC   100.0    0.0    1    1
  3. Purdue                   27-5    B10   100.0    0.0    1    1
  4. Texas                    25-8    B12   100.0    0.0    1    1
  5. UCLA                     29-4    P12   100.0    0.0    2    2
  6. Houston                  30-2    Amer  100.0    0.0    2    2
  7. Gonzaga                  28-5    WCC   100.0    0.0    2    2
  8. Kansas St.               23-9    B12   100.0    0.0    2    2

Texas is looking stronger and stronger and if they beat Kansas today, they will lock up a 1-seed—in the Dance Chance, at least. Other bracketologists are not convinced, and most have Houston a solid 1-seed. Here, UCLA nudges past the Cougars and will get the final 1-seed if Texas falters. Given that UCLA was #8 in the Committee's Top 16 "preview" the Bruins might be left a 2-seed even as Pac-12 champs.

Rank Team                      Rec    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(Mar 9)
  9. Baylor                   22-10   B12   100.0    0.0    3    3
 10. Tennessee                23-10   SEC   100.0    0.0    3    3
 11. Arizona                  27-6    P12   100.0   +0.0    3    4
 12. Indiana                  22-10   B10   100.0   +0.0    3    4
 13. Connecticut              25-8    BE    100.0    0.0    4    3
 14. Marquette                27-6    BE    100.0   +0.0    4    4
 15. TCU                      21-12   B12   100.0   +0.0    4    4
 16. Iowa St.                 19-13   B12   100.0    0.0    4    3
 17. Virginia                 25-6    ACC   100.0   +0.0    5    5
 18. Xavier                   25-8    BE     99.9    0.0    5    5
 19. Duke                     25-8    ACC    99.9    0.0    5    5
 20. San Diego St.            26-6    MWC    99.9   +2.8    5    7

Arizona moves up but the Dance Chance might not have them any higher than a 3-seed even if they beat UCLA. Marquette's win over UConn almost put them ahead of the Huskies, but they'll need to beat Xavier to finally become our top Big East team.

TCU and Iowa State both lost and fell a few rungs but stayed 4-seeds. Realistically there won't be six Big Twelve teams in the top 4 seeds so both should be considered 5-seeds. Virginia can move into a 4-seed by beating Duke. San Diego State, a pre-season 1-seed in our rankings, has their best seeding in quite a while as they head into the Mountain West conference tournament final against Utah State.

Rank Team                      Rec    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(Mar 9)
 41. Oklahoma St.             18-15   B12    63.6   -1.3   11   10
 42. N.C. State               23-10   ACC    61.5   +3.1   11   11
 43. Oral Roberts             30-4    Sum    59.4   -1.2   11   11
 44. USC                      22-10   P12    57.3   +1.0   11p  11p
 45. Nevada                   22-10   MWC    55.2   +3.0   11p  12p
 46. Providence               21-11   BE     53.1   +2.9   12p  12p
 47. Mississippi St.          21-12   SEC    50.9   -3.3   12p  11p
 48. North Carolina           20-13   ACC    48.8   +3.3       
 49. Wisconsin                17-14   B10    46.7   +3.3       
 50. Michigan                 17-15   B10    44.6   -5.2       
 51. New Mexico               22-11   MWC    42.5   +3.4       
 52. Oregon                   19-14   P12    40.4   -0.8       
 53. Clemson                  23-10   ACC    38.3   -9.4       
 54. Pittsburgh               22-11   ACC    36.2   -0.8       
 55. Charleston               31-3    CAA    34.0   +1.4   12   12
 56. Arizona St.              22-12   P12    31.9   -2.8       
 57. UAB                      25-8    CUSA   29.8   +5.8       

Here's where it gets murky. The bubble looked a lot cleaner yesterday but the Last Four In contains some questionable teams, as Mississippi State stayed in despite their loss, and Nevada and Providence are on shaky ground too. Oklahoma State is pretty firmly in by our estimates but at 18-15 they're not regarded well by other Bracketologists who put them in the First Four Out.

Speaking of the First Four Out, North Carolina has nudged to the top of that list as Clemson and Arizona State's threats diminished will tournament losses. And Michigan's threat diminished with an algorithm nudge, let's be honest. Teams with "tight" records like 17-15 or 18-15 need to be accounted for as there is clearly a Committee bias against such teams, regardless of profile. 

But UNC remains well ahead of Pittsburgh, another team that many have in the Last Four In. The Panthers aren't even in the First Four Out here, so it will be interesting to see what the Committee does. When it comes down to the eight teams that cluster around the dividing line, it's no sin to miss a team here and there. But if the Committee puts Pitt in and keeps Oklahoma State out, it's definitely a bias our algorithm doesn't account for. Pitt's best argument over Oklahoma State is overall record and in-conference finish. Viewed against North Carolina, Pitt they has two bad losses while UNC has none, but they did much better in the ACC and beat the Tar Heels twice—something our formula doesn't consider but the Committee would definitely look at if choosing one or the other to make the Dance. 

Rank Team                      Rec    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(Mar 9)
 64. Vanderbilt               20-13   SEC    15.0   +1.8       
 ...
 74. Ohio St.                 16-18   B10     0.2   -0.1       

And finally, here are the Cinderellas of the conference tournament season. Vanderbilt has a decent overall record and a 15% chance of making the tournament, while Ohio State's odds haven't budged at all despite their Big Ten run. Their 16-18 record is the reason, as they can't even finish .500 without winning the tournament in which case the at-large bid becomes moot.

Vandy would be 21-14 if they beat Texas A&M and lose in the SEC final; that probably won't be enough to make the tournament, or even have a really good chance. Their tournament so far has consisted of beating woeful LSU and upsetting Kentucky, so it's not really amazing just yet. But the finish to their season has been remarkable, with 10 wins and only one loss (to woeful LSU). It looks like Vandy will be in the NIT, while for Ohio State it's NCAA or bust (though bust could mean the CBI I guess)

Dance Chance: 1-seed down to 6 candidates; Bubble fairly stable

Three days of basketball left in 2023 before the Selection Committee makes its picks, and the 1-seeds are almost a done deal. It's down to the top six teams in the Dance Chance and who wins their conference tournaments. 

Rank Team                      Rec    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(Mar 8)
  1. Kansas                   26-6    B12   100.0    0.0    1    1
  2. Alabama                  26-5    SEC   100.0    0.0    1    1
  3. Texas                    24-8    B12   100.0    0.0    1    1
  4. Purdue                   26-5    B10   100.0    0.0    1    1
  5. Houston                  29-2    Amer  100.0    0.0    2    2
  6. UCLA                     28-4    P12   100.0    0.0    2    2
  7. Gonzaga                  28-5    WCC   100.0    0.0    2    2
  8. Kansas St.               23-9    B12   100.0    0.0    2    2

Kansas is almost a lock for the top 1-seed, though Alabama will get it if they win the SEC and Kansas loses. Either way, those two teams are going to be 1-seeds.

After that it gets complicated as Texas can get a 1-seed if they win the Big Twelve. If they don't, and if Purdue doesn't win the Big Ten, Houston and UCLA are waiting in the wings. UCLA probably moves ahead of Houston if both win out, so if only one spot is available the Cougars might be left out in the cold. The Dance Chances is probably over-ranking Big Twelve teams so Texas might stay a 1-seed even if they lose in the Big Twelve final, but in that scenario the Longhorns are definitely a 2-seed. Gonzaga and Kansas State have no chance to move up even if everyone above them loses.

Now on to the bubble:

Rank Team                      Rec    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(Mar 8)
 40. Oklahoma St.             18-15   B12    64.9   -2.0   10   10
 41. Memphis                  23-8    Amer   62.7   +2.2   11   11
 42. Oral Roberts             30-4    Sum    60.6   +6.4   11   11
 43. N.C. State               23-10   ACC    58.4   -4.2   11   11
 44. USC                      22-10   P12    56.3   -2.1   11p  11p
 45. Mississippi St.          21-11   SEC    54.2   +4.4   11p   
 46. Nevada                   22-10   MWC    52.2   -4.0   12p  11p
 47. Providence               21-11   BE     50.2   -1.9   12p  12p

Here is our current state after Thursday's games. The good news for the Last Four In is that most of them lost and are still above water! USC fell to Arizona State, Nevada lost in overtime to San José State, and Providence lost to UConn, but all three stayed in the seeding. The last two are pretty precarious, but there aren't many that many below-water teams threatening as we shall see.

Mississippi State is the only below-water team that made it back above the line after beating Florida in overtime. They're probably taking a loss today but it's against Alabama so they probably stay above water. Still, for teams hoping to sneak in they're the only hope for a fall among the Last Four In, an interesting situation.

Oklahoma State is a wild card. The Dance Chance has them pretty solidly "in" even after their loss to Texas put them at 18-15, not a historically great win-loss record. But the Big Twelve gets a lot of slack in the Dance Chance and the Selection Committee will at least somewhat follow through. We'll have to see how they handle these kinds of teams this year.

Rank Team                      Rec    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(Mar 8)
 48. Michigan                 17-15   B10    49.8   -0.4        12p
 49. Clemson                  23-9    ACC    47.7  +12.9       
 50. North Carolina           20-13   ACC    45.5   -2.1       
 51. Wisconsin                17-14   B10    43.4   +2.2       
 52. Oregon                   19-13   P12    41.2   +2.2       
 53. New Mexico               22-11   MWC    39.1   -4.3       
 54. Pittsburgh               22-11   ACC    36.9   -8.6       
 55. Arizona St.              22-11   P12    34.8   +4.3       

Michigan lost to Rutgers and they dropped out of the seedings—but only to the First Team Out surprisingly. They would normally have fallen farther but very few teams in their vicinity won yesterday—almost the entire bubble lost games on Thursday. Again, we don't know how much hope Michigan really has at 17-15 but with nearly everyone else losing they still have hope. Wisconsin even slid up a bit into the Last Four Out because so many contenders lost.

North Carolina also barely budged despite the loss to Virginia, for the same reason: who is going to be ahead of them since everyone lost? One likely team is Pittsburgh, whom the Dance Chance really doesn't seem to like. Most bracketologists think Pitt held on in the Last Four In, so it's kind of surprising to see them below our First Four Out but the magnitude of the Duke loss hurt them. They even fell below New Mexico, a Mountain West team who lost to Utah State and has an identical 22-11 record to Pitt's. But then again, the Mountain West is actually a tougher conference than the ACC this year.

Who still has hope to move up? Clemson beat NC State 80-54 and rocketed back into contention, and they'll probably get in if they can beat Virginia today as they would be 24-9 in that case. The Tigers are a threat to the other ACC bubble teams—not only to keep North Carolina out in our projection, but in the Bracket Matrix they could force out Pittsburgh. In the end it's likely that one of these three ACC bubble teams gets in, but only one.

Also winning and moving up, albeit in a more subdued way, was Oregon who topped Washington State and now faces UCLA, a win that would move the Ducks into the seedings. Also in the Pac-12 Arizona State beat USC and now comes the real prize, a game against Arizona. If both these upsets happen the Pac-12 would go from two solid teams in (UCLA, Arizona) and one shaky (USC), to five teams in. But only the Pac-12 winner would be guaranteed to stay in, and they might knock USC out depending on how solid the Trojans are with the Committee. The Bracket Matrix is confident USC is in, however.

Bubble Watch: Is Pittsburgh in trouble? The Dance Chance says yes

Pittsburgh lost to Duke 96-69 in the ACC tournament, leaving the Panthers 22-11 and maybe in danger of not making the NCAA tournament.

Pitt won their first ACC tournament game yesterday over Georgia Tech, 89-81 but beating the Yellow Jackets didn't help the Panthers' cause much according to the Dance Chance, where they were jumped over by fellow ACC team North Carolina. Still below the waterline, the loss to Duke will sink their odds further.

Here was the Dance Chance as of this morning:

Rank Team                      Rec    Conf  %Odds   Seed   Result
 46. Providence               21-10   BE     52.1    12p   L UConn 73-66
 47. Michigan                 17-14   B10    50.2    12p   L Rutgers 62-50
 48. Mississippi St.          20-11   SEC    49.8          W Florida 69-68 OT
 49. North Carolina           20-12   ACC    47.6            vs. Virginia
 50. Pittsburgh               22-10   ACC    45.5          L Duke 96-69

Pitt's loss certainly doesn't help but a loss to Duke isn't terrible, and some of the teams above them lost, too, which could help.

The last two teams in both fell. Providence lost to Connecticut 73-66, and Michigan's hopes were dashed by Rutgers 62-50.

Mississippi State fared better, winning in overtime against Florida to keep their dream alive. North Carolina faces Virginia tonight.

Based on the results so far, here is a preview of tomorrow's Dance Chance:

46. Providence                21-11     12p
47. Mississippi St.           20-11     12p
48. North Carolina            20-12    
49. Michigan                  17-15    
50. New Mexico                22-10    
51. Wisconsin                 17-14    
52. Oregon                    18-13    
53. Pittsburgh                22-11    

Providence likely stays where they are despite their loss, so Pitt isn't helped there, and Mississippi State moves into the Last Team In slot.

North Carolina, yet to play as of this writing, is the First Team Out and needs to beat Virginia to move into the seedings. Michigan falls out, but a loss by UNC would put the Wolverines near 50/50 territory, if the Selection Committee isn't turned off by their 17-15 record.

Pittsburgh will likely fall to around #53 in our S-curve, dropping below several teams:

• New Mexico hasn't played yet (they face Utah State late tonight) but faces an uphill battle as the #5 Mtn West team. 
• Wisconsin lost yesterday and is done but is still ahead of the Panthers.
• Oregon is leading Washington State as I write this and a win presumably keeps them ahead of Pitt, too

Despite the loss for Pitt there are some hopeful signs:

• Even if they end up at #53, that implies at least a 40% chance of being selected
• The Panthers rank high in the ACC regular season and have a solid 22-11 record, things that come into play when choosing the final few teams
• The Dance Chance ranks Pitt quite a bit lower than most bracketologists, who had Pitt as an 11-seed this morning. The loss to Duke might drop them to a play-in team in the consensus, but most will have the Panthers "in" rather than out

The bottom line: Pitt can't count on a bid, but given their overall record they probably have an advantage over most of the teams they'll be competing with for the final at-large bids. There are so many Big Ten teams already that Michigan and Wisconsin, who have poor overall records, are probably behind Pitt in the pecking order in reality. New Mexico is in the same boat (or worse) as the #5 Mountain West team. Oregon's overall record is poor, too.

That leaves Pitt competing with North Carolina, Mississippi State, and Providence for a bid. If North Carolina loses to Virginia they're probably out, and the Panthers beat the Tar Heels twice. Mississippi State faces Alabama next and a loss their would drop their stock slightly, and Providence is roughly neck and neck with the Panthers by most estimates.

In other words, it's going to be tight for the Panthers. It's not as bad, most likely, as the Dance Chance shows, but they're a bubble team right on the line. With their solid record, and handful of good wins, and high ACC rank the Panthers will probably squeeze in. But it's no gimme.

Bubble Watch: Oklahoma State, North Carolina, ASU score wins; Wisconsin, Texas Tech lose

March 8th (2023) and the bubble teams have started to play in conference tournaments. Here's how it went:

Rank Team                      Rec    Conf  %Odds   Seed   Result
 39. Oklahoma St.             17-14   B12    66.8    10   W Oklahoma 57-49
 40. Penn St.                 19-12   B10    64.7    10     ---
 41. Memphis                  23-8    Amer   62.6    11     ---
 42. USC                      22-9    P12    60.5    11     ---
 43. N.C. State               22-9    ACC    58.5    11p  W VA Tech 97-77
 44. Oral Roberts             30-4    Sum    56.3    11     ---
 45. Nevada                   22-9    MWC    54.2    11p    ---
 46. Providence               21-10   BE     52.3    12p    ---
 47. Michigan                 17-14   B10    50.5    12p    ---

Top of the bubble: These teams are all in—for now, and that could easily change over the next few days. Only two teams in this range played tonight and both of them won. Oklahoma State got the most important win because it puts them at 18-15, ever closer to an "acceptable" record for the Selection Committee. And it's not a bad win either; any win the Big Twelve is a good win. Next up for them is Texas, which wouldn't be a bad loss so if 18-15 is good enough, the Cowboys are probably in. Most other bracketologists have the Cowboys right on the borderline at this point. Beat Texas and they're in, however.

NC State scored a decent win that should help them stay in the field. Lose to Clemson and they're probably back down to the play-in area, but they'll want to beat the Tigers to make sure it doesn't get too dicey, as Clemson (see below) might squeeze in ahead of them in that case.

Rank Team                      Rec    Conf  %Odds   Seed   Result
 48. Mississippi St.          20-11   SEC    49.7           ---
 49. Wisconsin                17-13   B10    47.6         L Ohio St 65-57
 50. Pittsburgh               21-10   ACC    45.4         W GA Tech 89-81
 51. New Mexico               21-10   MWC    43.3         W Wyoming 87-76
 52. North Carolina           19-12   ACC    41.2         W Boston Coll 85-61
 53. Texas Tech               16-15   B12    39.0         L West Virginia 78-62
 54. Oregon                   18-13   P12    36.9           ---
 55. Charleston               31-3    CAA    34.8    12     ---
 56. Sam Houston St.          24-6    WAC    32.6    12     ---
 57. Clemson                  22-9    ACC    30.5          

Bottom of the bubble: Five teams played in the immediate area below the cut-line, and three of the five won. Pittsburgh, New Mexico, and North Carolina all scored minor wins that will only help them slightly, but every bit counts.

Pittsburgh is in good shape with most bracketologists and at this point people will assume they're in the field. I'm not so sure, and a loss to Duke might put them in peril. A win over the Blue Devils probably ices their bid. Conference-mate North Carolina beat Boston College impressively which is good, but they still might need to beat Virginia to get above the cut-line. Lose that and it's very close, probably no cigar for the defending national runner-up. New Mexico might have the toughest task of the three, as the Lobos' win over Wyoming doesn't move them up much and while next opponent Utah State would be a solid win, if they lose after that they're probably out as the #5 MWC team.

Wisconsin did all those teams a favor by getting out of the way. The Badgers fell to a resurgent Ohio State and are now 17-14, probably ending their at-large bid quest unless they get really lucky with the Committee somehow. And Texas Tech's quest to become a potential 9th Big Twelve team ended, too, as the Red Raiders are now 16-16 and barely NIT-worthy. 

Rank Team                      Rec    Conf  %Odds   Seed   Result
 58. Arizona St.              20-11   P12    28.4         W Oregon St 63-57
 ...
 61. Seton Hall               17-14   BE     22.0         L DePaul 66-65       
 ...
 64. Virginia Tech            19-13   ACC    15.6         L NC State 97-77
 65. Utah                     17-14   P12    13.4         L Stanford 73-62
 ...
 69. Washington St.           16-15   P12     4.9         W Cal 69-52

Below the bubble: These teams can't really be said to be on the bubble and with so many of them losing, they won't get there. There was mixed news from the Pac-12, where Utah's slim odds will plummet after a loss to lowly Stanford. But Arizona State is in fairly decent shape after beating Oregon State—not a great win, but they face USC next, not Arizona or UCLA, so a second win is a solid possibility. That would at least put them in position with 22 wins, and if they lose to Arizona afterwards they might stay above the waterline. Washington State's odds were very long going into the tournament at 16-15, but they beat Cal and it's a start. They take on bubble team Oregon next and they have a good shot there, too. After that they'd have to beat UCLA to be 19-15, and the Cougars would have at least measurable Dance odds at 19-16 if they played say, Arizona close in the finals. There's still hope! But don't expect their 5% odds to go above, say, 10%.

Seton Hall bit the dust with a very bad loss to DePaul, putting the Pirates at 17-15 and surely deflating their already slim odds of making the Dance. And as mentioned above, Virginia Tech lost to NC State by 20 points, not the performance a borderline candidate wants let alone one well underwater. Realistically both these teams would have needed a minimum of two wins, and maybe three, to get an at-large bid.

2023 March 6 Dance Chance: Big Twelve tournament is the wild card

The Big Twelve is the nation's best conference, and with six teams in our top 4 seeds something's gotta give. Within 7 days all but one team will suffer an additional loss. The conference is pretty much assured one 1-seed and might get a 2nd one, and might end up with the overall 1-seed. Eight teams are "in" right now but they've got a shot at 9. Only Oklahoma—who demolished consensus 1-seed Alabama 93-69 a month ago—is a no-hoper ironically.

Rank Team                      Rec    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(2/26)
  1. Kansas                   25-6    B12   100.0    0.0    1    1
  2. Alabama                  26-5    SEC   100.0    0.0    1    1
  3. Purdue                   26-5    B10   100.0    0.0    1    2
  4. Texas                    23-8    B12   100.0    0.0    1    1
  5. Houston                  29-2    Amer  100.0    0.0    2    1
  6. UCLA                     27-4    P12   100.0    0.0    2    2
  7. Kansas St.               23-8    B12   100.0    0.0    2    2
  8. Gonzaga                  26-5    WCC   100.0   +0.1    2    3

The 1-seed situation keeps getting clearer, with Kansas and Alabama still certain 1-seeds despite both losing last week, and pretty certain to remain 1-seeds even if they lose right away in their conference tournaments. Whichever one wins their tourney will be the overall 1-seed, and if neither does, that will go to Purdue if they win the Big 10. The Boilermakers' 1-seed isn't a sure thing if they bow out early, however.

The fight for the remaining 1-seed(s) comes down to Texas, Houston, and UCLA. Texas will get a 1-seed if they win the Big Twelve tournament; otherwise they probably fall to a 2 while Houston and UCLA wage a very even battle for the last 1-seed. Both need conference tournament crowns to get there, and if Purdue falters too they might both make it. Kansas State is a long shot even if they win the Big Twelve tourney but that might mean beating Texas and Kansas both, so if Houston and UCLA falter the Wildcats could be there.

Gonzaga is at their peak as a 2-seed; they can only fall to a 3-seed if they don't win the WCC tournament.

Rank Team                      Rec    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(2/26)
  9. Baylor                   22-9    B12   100.0    0.0    3    2
 10. Tennessee                22-9    SEC    99.9    0.0    3    3
 11. Connecticut              24-7    BE     99.9    0.0    3    3
 12. Arizona                  25-6    P12    99.9    0.0    3    4
 13. Marquette                25-6    BE     99.9    0.0    4    4
 14. Iowa St.                 18-12   B12    99.9   +0.0    4    4
 15. Indiana                  21-10   B10    99.9    0.0    4    3
 16. TCU                      20-11   B12    99.9    0.0    4    4
 17. Xavier                   23-8    BE     99.9   +1.5    5    5

Baylor was upset by Iowa State which dropped the Bears to a 3-seed and kept the Cyclones at a 4-seed. TCU also held a 4-seed—the lowest one—after upsetting Texas but then losing to Oklahoma. The wild and wooly Big Twelve tournament will sort all this out. Baylor plays Iowa State again on Thursday while TCU faces Kansas State.

The Big East tournament is another interesting one. UConn and Marquette are the favorites even thought UConn is just the conference 4-seed. The Huskies face Providence on Thursday while the Golden Eagles take on the winner between Butler and St. John's. If they both win they'll face each other in the semi-finals on Friday. Xavier faces the DePaul/Seton Hall winner on the lower bracket.

Rank Team                      Rec    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(2/26)
 18. Saint Mary's             25-6    WCC    99.9   +0.7    5    5
 19. Virginia                 23-6    ACC    99.7   +0.2    5    5
 20. West Virginia            18-13   B12    99.4  +15.9    5    8
 21. Illinois                 20-11   B10    99.0   +1.3    6    6
 22. San Diego St.            24-6    MWC    98.6   +1.6    6    6
 23. Northwestern             21-10   B10    96.4   +3.4    6    7
 24. Florida Atlantic         28-3    CUSA   94.5   -2.9    6    6
 25. Duke                     23-8    ACC    92.5  +10.9    7    8
 26. Maryland                 20-11   B10    90.6   -8.3    7    5

West Virginia had a great week, beating Iowa State on the road and Kansas State at home and moving from an 8-seed to a 5-seed in the process. The Mountaineers also made sure they can have no more than 14 losses, which given their schedule pretty much guarantees them a bid no matter what happens in the Big Twelve tournament where they face Texas Tech in the opening round Wednesday.

Maryland had the opposite, losing road games to Ohio State and Penn State. The Terps fall from a 5-seed to a 7-seed ahead of the Big Ten tournament where they will face the Minnesota-Nebraska winner, followed by Indiana. If they win that, they'll potentially face either Northwestern or Illinois, both 6-seeds currently.

Rank Team                      Rec    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(2/26)
 27. Creighton                20-11   BE     88.6   -2.5    7    7
 28. Texas A&M                23-8    SEC    86.7  +16.5    7   10
 29. Miami FL                 24-6    ACC    84.7  -11.3    8    7
 30. Michigan St.             19-11   B10    82.8   +3.1    8    9
 31. Kentucky                 21-10   SEC    80.8   -6.5    8    8
 32. Rutgers                  18-13   B10    78.9  -19.2    8    6
 33. Iowa                     19-12   B10    76.9   +4.8    9   10
 34. Boise St.                23-8    MWC    75.0   -0.9    9    9
 35. Arkansas                 19-12   SEC    73.0  -16.2    9    7
 36. Utah St.                 24-7    MWC    71.1   +2.8    9   10
 37. Auburn                   20-11   SEC    69.1  +11.1   10   11p
 38. Missouri                 23-8    SEC    67.2   -6.8   10    9

Texas A&M had a stellar week beating Ole Miss on the road then defending their home court by conquering 1-seed Alabama 67-61, bumping the Aggies up three seeds in the Dance Chance to a 7-seed and also securing the #2 seed in the SEC tournament. On Friday they'll face the winner of Arkansas vs. Auburn. The Razorback lost to Tennessee by 18 and fell to Kentucky at home this week, falling to a 9-seed, while Auburn jumped out of the bubble's quicksand with a home win over Tennessee. Fellow 10-seed Missouri might have the toughest draw in the SEC tournament, likely facing Tennessee and if they win that one, Alabama. That's their reward for being the SEC's #4 seed?

In the Big Ten, Rutgers continued to fall this week, losing to Minnesota on the road and Northwestern at home. It doesn't get any better as they'll face a very desperate Michigan team in the Big Ten tournament and if they win that, they get Purdue. Iowa had jumped several seeds by beating Indiana but gave most of it back by losing at home to Nebraska; the Hawkeyes take on the Ohio State-Wisconsin winner and if they get past that, they'll face Michigan State. The Spartans secured the #4 seed double-bye in the tournament with two wins last week.

The Mountain West tournament will be action-packed as well, with five teams still alive for a bid. Boise State is in good shape and Utah State is starting to get more recognition from bracketologists, too. Both teams will get byes, with the Broncos taking on the UNLV/Air Force winner and the Aggies facing either New Mexico—who desperately needs the wins—or Wyoming. 

Rank Team                     Rec    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(2/26)
 39. Oklahoma St.             17-14   B12    65.2  +17.9   10    
 40. Penn St.                 19-12   B10    63.3  +17.9   10    
 41. Memphis                  23-8    Amer   61.3  +11.4   11     
 42. USC                      22-9    P12    59.4   -7.0   11   10
 43. N.C. State               22-9    ACC    57.4   -2.9   11p  11p
 44. Nevada                   22-9    MWC    55.5  -22.3   11p   9
 45. Providence               21-10   BE     53.5  -31.9   11p   8
 46. Oral Roberts             28-4    Sum    51.6   +2.0   12   12
 47. Michigan                 17-14   B10    50.1   +1.2   11p     
 48. Mississippi St.          20-11   SEC    49.6  -13.0        11
 49. New Mexico               21-10   MWC    47.6   -0.8       
 50. Wisconsin                17-13   B10    45.7   +2.2       
 51. Pittsburgh               21-10   ACC    43.7  -11.6        11p
 52. North Carolina           19-12   ACC    41.8  -10.0        11p
 53. Texas Tech               16-15   B12    39.8  -24.7        11

Oklahoma State jumps into the seeding by knock Texas Tech out of them, courtesy of a 71-68 road victory over the Red Raiders. The two teams essentially flipped scripts, as now it's the Cowboys who are a reasonably healthy 17-14 while Tech is 16-15. It's hard to know how the Selection Committee will handle these "borderline" Big Twelve teams with killer schedules but lots of losses. Let's just say neither team wants a first-round loss in the Big Twelve tournament, where both play in the first round on Wednesday: Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma, and Texas Tech vs. West Virginia. If they win they face Kansas and Texas, respectively; will one win be enough? For Oklahoma State, probably; for Texas Tech, probably not.

Other important bubble developments: Memphis went from First Team Out to a fairly solid 11-seed after almost beating Houston, something that does get the Committee's attention (5 of their 8 losses are to Houston or Alabama, or went to overtime). Penn State beat Northwestern on the road and Maryland at home and went from off-the-chart to a 10-seed. Fellow Big Ten team Michigan sneaked into the Last Team In position despite two losses last week—but they took both Illinois and Indiana into overtime, on the road, before losing. Again, that's something the Committee looks at when deciding on the very last teams. It doesn't make Michigan's road any easier, though, as they won't get in if they don't beat Rutgers on Thursday, and they might have to follow it up with a win over Purdue too. Wisconsin is in the First Four Out and needs to beat Ohio State, then Iowa, if they want to reasonably secure an 11-seed play-in bid.

Both Providence and Nevada saw their very-solid bids turn to bubble material last week. The Friars lost two games at home while the Wolf Pack fell to both Wyoming and UNLV. It's not looking great for Providence who risk falling out of the seeding if they don't beat Connecticut on Thursday (the Friars are 1-1 against the Huskies this year). Nevada faces San José State first and then probably San Diego State; will one win be enough? And speaking of Mountain West bubble teams, New Mexico is hanging on in the First Four Out; the Lobos need to beat Wyoming for sure, and probably Utah State to get back in, and to really secure things would have to reach the finals on Saturday.

The real bubble drama is in the ACC while Pittsburgh and North Carolina are fighting for their lives. UNC failed to get the home win over Duke that they needed and now they need ACC tournament wins. The first one should be easy—hopefully—as the Tar Heels will face the Boston College-Louisville winner. After that it will be Virginia, and that would probably do it—but it would still be tight. Pittsburgh has a similarly easy first game, facing the Georgia Tech-Florida State winner, but then it's Duke. Again, two wins and their in, and we have them lower than almost anyone else. When they were tied for first place they were an easier call, but they ended up in a 3-way tie for 3rd place in the ACC.

Rank Team                      Rec    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(2/26)
 54. Oregon                   18-13   P12    37.9   -3.7       
 55. Sam Houston St.          24-6    WAC    35.9   +0.0   12   12
 56. Clemson                  22-9    ACC    34.0    0.0       
 57. Charleston               29-3    CAA    32.0   -7.7   12   12
 58. Arizona St.              20-11   P12    30.1   -7.7       
 59. Drake                    27-7    MVC    28.1   +5.5   12   13
 60. North Texas              25-6    CUSA   26.2   -0.2       
 61. Seton Hall               17-14   BE     24.2   -4.1       
 62. UAB                      23-8    CUSA   22.3   -9.8       
 63. Utah Valley              24-7    WAC    20.3  +16.7       
 64. Virginia Tech            18-13   ACC    18.4   -0.4       
 65. Utah                     17-14   P12    16.5   -8.1       
 66. Kent St.                 25-6    MAC    14.5  -15.7   13   12
 67. Vanderbilt               18-13   SEC    12.6  +11.5       
 68. Cincinnati               20-11   Amer   10.6   +3.2       
 69. Washington St.           16-15   P12     8.7   -6.4       
 70. Colorado                 16-15   P12     6.7  -10.2       

These bubble teams (other than Drake, who secured an auto-bid in the Missouri Valley) really need to make something happen in their conference tournaments. The Pac-12 is a wide-open opportunity for the five teams listed here, as only three Pac-12 teams are in the seedings and there should be no hurdles to getting a fourth team in. Oregon, who is in decent shape, will probably end up facing Washington State, who is in woeful shape. With 15 losses the Cougars have no room for error and almost no room for success short of winning the whole tournament. Same with Colorado, needs to beat Washington—and then UCLA—to revive their near-dead hopes. Utah faces Stanford and then Arizona. Arizona State has the least-ugly win-loss record and a good path—they face Oregon State and then USC before they would run into Arizona.

Clemson and Virginia Tech needs in the ACC tourney, and while the Tigers are in better shape right now, they also have a double-bye in the tournament so they won't play until Thursday—when their opponent might be the Hokies. Virginia Tech just has to beat Notre Dame and then N.C. State, both reasonable propositions. If they beat the Tigers they'll be 21-13 and back in the thick of things. Meanwhile Clemson might need three wins as well—which means they'd have to win the tournament.

It's hard to see exactly how North Texas and UAB can improve their current position much without winning the C-USA tournament. They should both get a win on Thursday which helps a bit, and then on Friday they'll face each other. The winner—who will have either 25 or 27 wins on the season—would be in the final, probably against Florida Atlantic. Will they be in position to get an at-large bid with a loss? Probably close, but no cigar.

Rank Team                      Rec    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(2/26)
 71. VCU                      24-7    A10     4.8   -8.4   13   13
 75. Liberty                  26-8    ASun    0.8   -8.5        13
 79. Yale                     20-7    Ivy     0.7   -0.7   13   14
 81. Marshall                 24-8    SB      0.7   -1.0        13
 86. Iona                     24-7    MAAC    0.6   -0.8   13   14
 92. Louisiana                25-7    SB      0.5   -0.6   14    
 93. Furman                   26-7    SC      0.5   -0.7   14   14
100. UC Irvine                22-10   BW      0.4   -0.4   14   14
107. Montana St.              23-9    BSky    0.2   -0.2   14    
114. Colgate                  25-8    Pat    <0.1   -0.3   15   15
117. Youngstown St.           24-8    Horz   <0.1   -0.3   15   15
120. Kennesaw St.             26-8    ASun   <0.1   -0.1   15    
125. Eastern Washington       22-10   BSky   <0.1   -0.5        15
129. Vermont                  21-10   AE     <0.1    0.0   15   15
138. UNC Asheville            27-7    BSth   <0.1    0.0   16   16
150. Grambling St.            22-8    SWAC   <0.1    0.0   16   16p
153. North Carolina Central   17-11   MEAC   <0.1    0.0   16p  16
157. Northwestern St.         21-10   Slnd   <0.1    0.0   16p  16p
195. SIU Edwardsville         19-14   OVC    <0.1    0.0        16p
221. Southeast Missouri St.   19-16   OVC     0.0    ---   16p    
264. Fairleigh Dickinson      19-14   NEC     0.0    ---   16p    
298. Wagner                   15-13   NEC     0.0    ---        16p

Five teams are already in the Big Dance. We mentioned Drake above; Kennesaw State upset Liberty to take the Atlantic Sun auto-bid; favorite UNC Asheville made it official in the Big South; Southeast Missouri State had to win four games to take the Ohio Valley crown, but they did; and Fairleigh Dickinson didn't even need to win their conference tournament—the final is Tuesday night—because opponent Merrimack isn't eligible for the conference crown or NCAA bid. 

In other developments, Marshall was the favorite in the Sun Belt but they lost to Texas State, who lost to Louisiana who plays in the final tonight. Montana State beat Eastern Washington on Monday, won their first Big Sky tournament game on Sunday, and has several to go but is the current favorite.