A belated looks at week 7. Not too late because week 8 has been quiet until today (Thursday) with very few scheduled games. Anyway, last week's Dance Chance looks like this:
| Record | Dance Chance | Seed Rank Team Conf Rec Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg Proj Prev 1. Purdue B10 11-1 28-3 30-1 99.7 +0.7 1 1 2. Arizona P12 9-2 28-3 29-2 99.5 +0.7 1 1 3. Houston B12 12-0 27-4 29-2 98.1 +1.4 1 1 4. BYU B12 11-1 26-5 29-2 94.7 +2.8 1 2 5. Iowa St. B12 10-2 24-7 27-4 91.7 +1.3 2 2 6. Florida Atlantic Amer 10-2 27-4 29-2 90.4 +10.4 2 3 7. Alabama SEC 7-5 23-8 26-5 90.3 +2.6 2 2 8. Connecticut BE 11-2 24-7 27-4 88.7 -3.3 2 1
A switch in the top seeds sees UConn drop out and BYU move in; this isn't the Cougars' doing—they beat Bellarmine 101-59 but so they didn't falter or anything—but UConn lost pretty bad to Seton Hall (85-70) and fell to the lowest 2-seed. #1 overall Purdue stayed there with a 100-57 blowout of Jacksonville, but the real action was with Arizona. The Wildcats had a wild week, beating 2-seed Alabama 87-74 before heading to Las Vegas where they were upset by Florida Atlantic in two overtimes! The upshot of all this was 1) Arizona holding their #1 spot (even advancing their tournament odds 0.7%); 2) Alabama holding on to their 2-seed; and 3) Florida Atlantic moving up from a 3-seed to a 2-seed.
Alabama is only 7-5 but they're favored by the Strength power rating in every game going forward, and projected to finish around 23-8. The Tide recovered with a 111-67 blowout of Eastern Kentucky. Rounding out the 1-seeds is Houston, one of three undefeated teams left; they beat Texas State 72-37 in their only game last week. Rounding out the 2-seeds is Iowa State; the Cyclones topped Eastern Illinois 80-48. This gives the Big 12 three teams out of the top 5, and two 1-seeds, probably not a realistic finish after the conference tournaments so all three will be vying for one spot, most likely.
| Record | Dance Chance | Seed Rank Team Conf Rec Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg Proj Prev 9. Creighton BE 9-3 23-8 26-5 82.8 -2.1 3 2 10. Duke ACC 8-3 24-7 27-4 82.6 +8.6 3 4 11. Tennessee SEC 9-3 22-9 24-7 82.3 +0.1 3 3 12. Clemson ACC 10-1 24-7 28-3 82.1 +3.8 3 3 13. Marquette BE 10-3 22-9 26-5 81.3 -2.4 4 3 14. Colorado St. MWC 11-1 25-6 26-5 79.8 +5.9 4 4 15. Baylor B12 10-2 22-9 24-7 79.1 +1.6 4 4 16. North Carolina ACC 8-3 22-9 24-7 77.9 +9.6 4 6
In the 3-4 seeds we find Duke and Baylor; the Blue Devils beat the Bears 78-70 in New York which helped Duke move up a seed while Baylor remained a 4-seed after beating Mississippi Valley 107-48 (lots of rebound blowouts last week it seems). Also a 4-seed, North Carolina moves up from a 6-seed after handing Oklahoma their first loss 81-69 in Charlotte. The teams swapped seeds as the Sooners dropped to a 6-seed. Taken together, these two games make up the closest thing to an ACC/Big Twelve Challenge we're gonna get until the Big Dance, and the ACC swept it, perhaps drawing the conferences a bit closer together. The Big Twelve is seen as the strongest, and the ACC one of the weakest of the power conferences, so the result is interesting. However, note that Duke and UNC are the favorites to win the ACC while Baylor and Oklahoma are around fifth-best in the Big 12.
Creighton dropped a conference clash to Villanova in overtime and dropped a seed as a result. Marquette also lost a conference game—to Providence, 72-57—and fell to a 4-seed. Add in UConn and it's already tough sledding for the top teams in the Big East.
| Record | Dance Chance | Seed Rank Team Conf Rec Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg Proj Prev 17. Illinois B10 9-2 22-9 24-7 75.4 +7.2 5 6 18. Kentucky SEC 9-2 23-8 24-7 74.2 +7.0 5 7 19. Kansas B12 11-1 22-9 24-7 72.9 +0.6 5 5 20. New Mexico MWC 11-1 25-6 26-5 72.9 +6.3 5 7 21. Texas A&M SEC 8-4 21-10 24-7 72.4 +2.5 6 5 22. Utah St. MWC 12-1 27-6 29-4 72.3 -0.3 6 5 23. Auburn SEC 9-2 23-8 25-6 71.5 +1.6 6 6 24. Oklahoma B12 10-1 23-9 22-10 70.3 -4.6 6 4 25. Indiana St. MVC 11-1 26-5 29-2 69.0 -2.4 7 5 26. Nevada MWC 12-1 25-7 27-5 68.3 +10.0 7 9 27. Utah P12 9-2 21-9 24-6 65.6 +5.7 7 8 28. Memphis Amer 10-2 24-7 26-5 65.3 +7.5 7 9
Kentucky moved up a few seeds after beating Louisville 95-76, a result pretty much expected. The Wildcats were the top 7-seed so the move wasn't really that dramatic though it is interesting that they moved ahead of Kansas who beat them earlier this year (Kansas has to deal with their Big 12 schedule, much harder than Kentucky's SEC slate). Joining UK in the jump from a 7-seed was New Mexico, now 11-1 after a solid win over UC Irvine. The Lobos moved from the #2 7-seed to the bottom 5-seed so their move wasn't dramatic either.
Along with Oklahoma, Indiana State falls a few seeds. They decline from a 5- to a 7-seed which might be called a shift to a more realistic scenario; the Sycamores beat Tennessee State 90-69, not a strong result for a home game against the #240 team in Strength, so their future outlook was compromised a bit. But two other mid-Major programs pick up the slack and jump from 9-seeds to 7-seeds. Nevada won the Diamond Head Classic with three wins which puts them at 11-1 (only loss: Drake) while Memphis handled Major-conference foes Virginia and Vanderbilt. The Cavaliers were a 6-seed last week. But this week....
| Record | Dance Chance | Seed Rank Team Conf Rec Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg Proj Prev 29. Princeton Ivy 11-1 24-3 26-1 64.0 +0.7 8 7 30. Ohio St. B10 10-2 22-9 24-7 63.8 +4.9 8 8 31. Gonzaga WCC 9-3 24-6 26-4 63.5 -2.4 8 7 32. Wisconsin B10 9-3 20-11 23-8 62.6 +3.0 8 8 33. Dayton A10 9-2 23-7 27-3 62.0 +7.3 9 10 34. San Diego St. MWC 10-2 22-9 24-7 61.8 +3.3 9 8 35. Colorado P12 9-2 23-8 26-5 61.0 +4.7 9 10 36. James Madison SB 12-0 28-2 30-0 59.9 +1.5 9 9 37. Virginia ACC 9-2 22-9 27-4 59.4 -8.1 10 6 38. Mississippi St. SEC 10-2 21-10 22-9 59.3 +5.7 10 10 39. Michigan St. B10 7-5 20-11 23-8 59.2 +6.9 10 11 40. Pittsburgh ACC 9-3 21-10 23-8 58.3 +2.0 10 9
Virginia falls all the way to a 10-seed with the 77-54 home loss to Memphis; their other loss—to Wisconsin—was by 24 points. Other than the Cavaliers there's not much movement here. The two biggest percentage gainers are 9-seed Dayton and 10-seed Michigan State, and both beat Oakland last week, 91-67 and 79-62 respectively. This region also includes the 2nd undefeated team, James Madison, and the Dukes hold their 9-seed after beating Coppin State (87-58) and Morgan State (89-75) last week.
| Record | Dance Chance | Seed Rank Team Conf Rec Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg Proj Prev 41. Villanova BE 9-4 19-12 18-13 55.2 +19.4 11 42. Florida SEC 9-3 20-11 21-10 52.7 +11.7 11 12p 43. Miami FL ACC 9-2 21-10 22-9 51.3 +0.8 11 11 44. Cincinnati B12 10-2 20-11 21-10 46.8 -6.2 11 10 45. TCU B12 10-2 20-12 21-11 45.6 -3.1 12 11 46. Providence BE 11-2 20-11 19-12 45.1 +11.6 12p 47. Virginia Tech ACC 9-3 19-12 18-13 42.6 +2.3 12p 12p 48. Saint Mary's WCC 8-6 21-10 22-9 41.7 +7.9 12p 49. Butler BE 10-3 19-12 19-12 39.5 -1.7 12p 12 50. San Francisco WCC 10-4 23-8 24-7 38.2 +9.4 51. Iowa B10 7-5 18-13 20-11 38.0 -2.6 12p 52. Drake MVC 11-2 23-8 26-5 37.6 -5.8 11 53. Grand Canyon WAC 10-1 25-6 30-1 37.3 +3.5 12 13 54. UC Irvine BW 7-5 24-8 27-5 37.0 -2.6 13 12 55. Northwestern B10 9-2 18-13 16-15 36.4 +3.2 56. St. John's BE 8-4 18-13 17-14 36.2 +8.3 57. Washington P12 8-3 20-11 20-11 36.1 -1.4 12p
New teams on the bubble include Villanova (winners over 3-seed Creighton in overtime, and DePaul by 36, and by far the biggest mover this week at +19.4%), and Providence (who beat 4-seed Marquette by 15 and Butler in overtime). This gives the Big East six teams in the current projection, though the last three (including Last-Team-In Butler) are precarious at this juncture.
St. Mary's also gets back into the mix at 8-6 despite losing last week at home to Missouri State. Their prior wins over New Mexico (who won the Diamond Head Classic) and Colorado State (both teams are now 11-1) gave them a big boost and the rest of the schedule isn't tough; they're expected to beat almost everyone not named Gonzaga from here on out. The latest loss doesn't instill confidence, though. In fact, WCC-conference mate (and current First-Team-Out) San Francisco has roughly the same tournament odds as the Gaels. They're 10-4 and have the same easy schedule going forward. It might come down to head-to-head between the two teams, which they split right now.
Falling out of the seedings are two Iowa teams, Iowa (that was easy) and Drake. The Hawkeyes beat UMBC 103-81 which isn't a great win over the #332 team in Strength, and it was enough to dip them out of their play-in spot. The Bulldogs lost, however, to UAB, enough to dump them out from their 11-seed, even though it was on the road and in overtime, mid-Majors don't get the benefit of the doubt from the Selection Committee.
Washington didn't lose either but their 73-66 win over Eastern Washington was apparently the last straw. In the long run they can turn things around as they already have a win over Gonzaga and their only losses are to top MWC teams Nevada, San Diego State, and Colorado State. Our projection puts them at 12-8 in the Pac-12, which makes them come up short.
| Record | Dance Chance | Seed Rank Team Conf Rec Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg Proj Prev 59. SMU Amer 9-4 21-10 23-8 34.9 +12.5 73. Mississippi SEC 12-0 19-12 17-14 25.2 +4.1 129. Toledo MAC 6-6 18-12 21-9 4.7 -11.6 133. UCLA P12 5-6 14-17 16-15 4.5 -16.3 207. Quinnipiac MAAC 9-3 18-13 17-14 0.1 +0.1 208. Austin Peay ASun 7-7 17-14 16-15 0.1 +0.1 242. Notre Dame ACC 5-7 9-22 5-26 0.0 -0.1
Other noteworthy teams include SMU, who jumped the most of any team percentage-wise this week (other than Villanova). The Mustangs beat Houston Christian 89-53 and Murray State 92-65; nothing like a couple blowouts to bring your Strength rating up and improve your outlook. Which they did, going from a projected 20-11 to 21-10, and from 21 to 23 in games they're favored in. They went from less than 1 in 4 odds to better than 1 in 3. The worst loser this week were Toledo and UCLA, both declining by double digits. The Rockets lost to West Virginia on the road, but the real killer was losing by 26 points to Vermont at home. UCLA fell even harder, losing at home to Cal-Northridge and Maryland. The Bruins are 5-6 and have less than a 5% chance of making the tournament after starting as a projected 1-seed (based solely, of course, on last year's performance without any modification). We knew UCLA would fall but probably not quite this far.
Mississippi is the final of the three undefeated teams left, and even at 12-0 they're not very close to being a projected tournament team. The problem is their #93 Strength rating, which means they're only favored to win three games going forward, and with varience probably get 5 wins to finish 19-12. One of the games they should win is Bryant, but after that they might only win two SEC games. We'll see if that happens, as the Rebels have already beaten some decent teams—9-3 NC State, 10-2 Memphis, and 8-3 UCF. This is why they're #3 in Success, and #15 Overall in our power ratings. But Strength is best for looking to the future, and the future isn't bright. They're roughly in the same spot LSU was last year when the Tigers started 12-1 before going 2-16 in the SEC. The Tigers did upset Arkansas as part of their early win streak so I think the Rebels might upset Tennessee before their inevitable slide.
Quinnipiac and Austin Peay come back from their dead, so to speak, adding 0.1% odds after being at near-zero last week. The Bobcats beat Holy Cross by 20 on the road, then beat Lafayette at home by 18. Can they keep it up? Austin Peay evened their record with an upset of Ohio that was apparently enough to keep their 1 in 1000 hopes alive. Notre Dame, however, went the other direction, going from 0.1% odds to absolute 0.0% after losing at home to The Citadel 65-45. Even a recovered win over Marist wasn't enough—and it didn't help they only won that by 4 points. The Irish join Louisville, also of the ACC, in the 0.0% department. Other Major-conference schools who are judged 100% out of luck include Georgetown and DePaul of the Big East, and Vanderbilt of the SEC. So far no Big Ten, Big Twelve, or Pac-12 teams are similarly hopeless.
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