Saturday saw a showdown between the #1 and #2 team in our Overall Power Rating—Purdue and Arizona—and the #1 team won, 92-84, handing Arizona their first loss. Let's see how it affected our NCAA tournament seeding projections:
| Record | Dance Chance | Seed Rank Team Conf Rec Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg Proj Prev 1. Purdue B10 10-1 28-3 30-1 99.0 +2.3 1 1 2. Arizona P12 8-1 28-3 30-1 98.8 +0.3 1 1 3. Houston B12 11-0 27-4 29-2 96.7 +0.8 1 1 4. Connecticut BE 10-1 26-5 29-2 92.0 +3.2 1 2 5. BYU B12 10-1 26-5 29-2 91.9 +2.5 2 1
No big surprise, Purdue moves up to the top overall seed. It was really close, as Arizona still outranks Purdue in Strength, it was more or less a home game for the Boilermakers, and Purdue already had a loss. But the Boilermakers also had wins over 7-seed Gonzaga, 3-seed Tennessee, 3-seed Marquette, and 2-seed Alabama so their résumé is already stacked, and they'll have to stumble pretty badly in the Big Ten to not get a solid seeding.
Houston survived a late scare from 5-seed Texas A&M but the Cougars aren't favored in every game any more—Iowa State and BYU are slim favorites at home. Speaking of BYU, those Cougars lost their 1-seed by a sliver to UConn, who beat Gonzaga soundly after thrashing Arkansas-Pine Bluff. That tops BYU's two dominant home wins over Denver and Georgia State.
| Record | Dance Chance | Seed Rank Team Conf Rec Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg Proj Prev 6. Iowa St. B12 9-2 24-7 27-4 90.4 +4.1 2 2 7. Alabama SEC 6-4 23-8 26-5 87.7 +0.9 2 2 8. Creighton BE 9-2 24-7 27-4 84.9 +3.9 2 3 9. Marquette BE 9-2 23-8 26-5 83.7 +0.9 3 2 10. Tennessee SEC 8-3 23-8 25-6 82.2 +2.0 3 3 11. Florida Atlantic Amer 9-2 26-5 28-3 80.0 +7.5 3 4 12. Clemson ACC 9-1 24-7 27-4 78.3 +0.1 3 3
Creighton moves up to a 2-seed by beating 2-seed Alabama, 85-82, a win that overshadowed their 79-64 loss earlier in the week to UNLV apparently. Ultimately the Jays went 1-1 during the week, which is what they were expected to do but in a different order.
The Tide are only 6-4 but they hold at a 2; they remain high (#6) in Strength, with some of last year's #2 Strength still in the mix, and their losses have been to top teams: to 8-seed Ohio State by 11, 3-seed Clemson by 8, 1-seed Purdue by 6, and now 2-seed Creighton by 3. They're getting closer and closer to a big win—maybe when they face 1-seed Arizona on Wednesday they'll hit paydirt?
Florida Atlantic also gets a shot at Arizona in the coming week. The Owls are up to a 2-seed after adding two more wins. Clemson held their 3-seed despite taking their first loss, on the road at Memphis 79-77.
| Record | Dance Chance | Seed Rank Team Conf Rec Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg Proj Prev 13. Baylor B12 9-1 23-8 25-6 77.5 -1.5 4 3 14. Oklahoma B12 10-0 24-8 22-10 74.9 +8.1 4 6 15. Duke ACC 7-3 23-8 25-6 74.0 +0.7 4 4 16. Colorado St. MWC 10-1 25-6 26-5 73.9 +6.7 4 6 17. Utah St. MWC 11-1 27-6 29-4 72.6 +0.5 5 4 18. Kansas B12 10-1 22-9 24-7 72.3 -2.1 5 4 19. Indiana St. MVC 10-1 27-4 29-2 71.4 -0.5 5 5 20. Texas A&M SEC 7-4 21-10 23-8 69.9 +5.0 5 6 21. Auburn SEC 8-2 23-8 25-6 69.9 +10.4 6 7 22. North Carolina ACC 7-3 21-10 23-8 68.3 -1.0 6 5 23. Illinois B10 8-2 22-9 22-9 68.2 +8.0 6 7 24. Virginia ACC 9-1 23-8 27-4 67.5 -1.1 6 5
Mini-Big Twelve-ACC Challenge: Baylor couldn't quite hold their 3-seed after their first loss, a bad one to Michigan State 88-64; they face fellow 4-seed Duke on Wednesday. Oklahoma remained undefeated and moved up two seeds after an 81-47 win over Green Bay. The Sooners face 6-seed North Carolina in on Wednesday, so between the two games it's a small-scale Big 12/ACC Challenge.
Colorado State also moves up from a 6-seed to a 4-seed following an 86-54 win over Colorado State-Pueblo. Since that result was more than expected, it's almost certain that it's the vestiges of the Rams' poor 2022-2023 season leaving the system are boosting them more than a win over a non-D-I team. CSU was only #97 last year in Strength and so far this year they're #13, which makes them the favorite in the Mountain West (a distinction that has already changed hands several times this season). Utah State helped them there by struggling against Santa Clara and San Francisco, winning by a combined 3 points.
Kansas also fell from a 4 to a 5 after narrowly beating Indiana. Meanwhile Texas A&M moved up despite losing, but it was to 1-seed Houston in Houston, so the Aggies are a 5-seed even though they're only 7-4. They have wins over Ohio State and 2-seed Iowa State to offset their other losses to 3-seed FAU, 6-seed Virginia, and 9-seed Memphis. Auburn ripped USC 91-75 which added over 10% to their tournament odds as a 6-seed.
| Record | Dance Chance | Seed Rank Team Conf Rec Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg Proj Prev 25. Kentucky SEC 8-2 22-9 24-7 67.2 +6.2 7 7 26. New Mexico MWC 10-1 24-7 26-5 66.6 +2.0 7 6 27. Gonzaga WCC 8-3 24-6 26-4 65.9 -4.3 7 5 28. Princeton Ivy 10-1 23-4 26-1 63.3 +3.9 7 8 29. Utah P12 8-2 21-9 22-8 59.9 +2.0 8 8 30. Wisconsin B10 8-3 20-11 23-8 59.6 +2.9 8 9 31. Ohio St. B10 9-2 21-10 24-7 58.9 +7.1 8 10 32. San Diego St. MWC 8-2 22-9 24-7 58.5 +1.5 8 9 33. James Madison SB 10-0 27-3 30-0 58.4 +4.0 9 10 34. Nevada MWC 9-1 23-7 25-5 58.3 +0.4 9 8 35. Memphis Amer 8-2 23-8 27-4 57.8 +6.1 9 10 36. Pittsburgh ACC 8-3 21-10 24-7 56.3 -0.2 9 9
Kentucky beat North Carolina but remained a 7-seed, while Gonzaga dropped 2 seeds after losing big to UConn; a 7-seed would be the Zags' worse seed sing 2016's 11-seed.
Ohio State is the only big upward mover here, as their 67-60 win over UCLA in Atlanta boosts the Buckeyes from a 10-seed to an 8.
| Record | Dance Chance | Seed Rank Team Conf Rec Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg Proj Prev 37. Colorado P12 8-2 22-9 25-6 56.3 -4.2 10 7 38. Dayton A10 8-2 22-8 25-5 54.7 +14.1 10 11 39. Mississippi St. SEC 9-2 21-10 22-9 53.6 +2.1 10 10 40. Cincinnati B12 8-2 20-11 21-10 53.0 -4.5 10 9 41. Michigan St. B10 5-5 19-12 22-9 52.3 +12.9 11 12p 42. Miami FL ACC 8-2 21-10 25-6 50.5 -8.2 11 8 43. TCU B12 8-1 19-11 20-10 48.7 +2.0 11 11 44. Drake MVC 10-1 24-7 26-5 43.4 -3.3 11 11 45. Butler BE 9-2 19-12 19-12 41.2 +4.5 12 46. Florida SEC 7-3 19-12 20-11 41.0 +0.9 12p 12p 47. Iowa B10 6-5 18-13 21-10 40.6 +0.2 12p 12 48. Virginia Tech ACC 8-3 19-12 17-14 40.3 +5.8 12p 49. UC Irvine BW 7-4 24-8 27-5 39.6 +6.1 12 12 50. Washington P12 7-3 20-11 21-10 37.5 -0.5 12p 51. Texas B12 8-2 18-13 17-14 36.2 -4.1 12p 52. Michigan B10 6-5 17-14 21-10 36.2 +0.4 53. Villanova BE 7-4 17-14 17-14 35.8 +1.5 54. Washington St. P12 8-2 20-10 22-8 35.0 -7.9 11 64. Northwestern B10 8-2 18-13 15-16 33.2 -6.2 12p
Colorado is the big loser here, falling from a 7-seed to a 10-seed. Their crime? Beating Northern Colorado 90-68. Seems a bit harsh, but note that Miami also plunged 3 rungs (from an 8-seed to an 11-seed) and that was Colorado's big win. The Canes had a tepid 84-77 home win over La Salle but more than anything it's last year's bias leaving the system. Miami drops, and Colorado is dragged down with them, losing half as much in terms of tournament odds.
On the plus side, Dayton roars up over 14% after beating Cincinnati 82-68, and Michigan State is up around 13% after beating Baylor badly. Neither team made a big jump in seeding, that will have to come in time as Dayton doesn't have a challenging schedule and the Spartans are just 5-5, which is holding them back a bit no matter how well they do in the future.
Three teams enter: Butler, after their projection improved a bit from last week and their loss to Michigan State looks more palatable; Virginia Tech, after a solid win over Vermont (73-51) puts the Hokies on the bubble; and Washington, who needed 2 overtimes to beat Seattle and saw their odds go down a bit, but not as much as the teams that dropped below them.
Dropping underwater are Texas, who beat LSU 96-85 but is seeing last year's bias (where they were #6 in Strength) continue to leave the system; Washington State, who fell 69-61 to Santa Clara; and Northwestern, who dropped a home game to Chicago State last Wednesday. The Wildcats have now beaten the #2 team in Strength (Purdue) and lost to the #306 team.
| Record | Dance Chance | Seed Rank Team Conf Rec Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg Proj Prev 85. Bradley MVC 6-4 19-12 22-9 19.5 -15.9 94. Southern Illinois MVC 6-4 20-11 24-7 15.6 -15.3
Missouri Valley Massacre: The two teams whose odds dropped the most were both from the Missouri Valley Conference. Last week, both Bradley and Southern Illinois were low on the bubble, in fact two weeks ago Bradley was in our seeding. The Braves have lose four straight since then, including a 76-69 loss to Cleveland State at home on Friday. The Salukis lost twice last week, to Austin Peay at home and Wichita State on the road. Both were very close but that didn't matter. Both Bradley and SIU lost a huge chunk of their tourney odds, over 15% each, and both are now 6-4 which is not a great early-season record for an aspiring Missouri Valley at-large selection.
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