A full week of college basketball has been played so naturally it's time to declare some teams hopeless, while others are surely on their way to the Final Four. But seriously the first week is really good for making snap judgements, based on roughly two games apiece, on whether a team has improved from last year or not, and whether they're matching or exceeding their AP pre-season poll ranking.
Post-week 1 NCAA tournament seed projections:
| Record | Dance Chance | Seed Rank Team Conf Rec Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg Proj Prev 1. Connecticut BE 2-0 25-5 30-0 80.7 +4.3 1 1 2. Alabama SEC 2-0 24-6 28-2 80.4 +4.8 1 1 3. Houston B12 2-0 23-6 29-0 79.5 +6.2 1 1 4. Arizona P12 2-0 24-7 29-2 77.4 +17.6 1 2 5. Tennessee SEC 2-0 23-6 28-1 75.4 +8.1 2 2 6. UCLA P12 2-0 24-6 29-1 74.5 +0.3 2 1 7. Gonzaga WCC 1-0 23-5 27-1 72.7 +5.4 2 2 8. Kansas B12 2-0 21-8 26-3 69.2 +9.7 2 3 9. Purdue B10 2-0 21-8 27-2 68.9 +13.1 3 3 10. Texas B12 2-0 22-8 26-4 63.7 -1.7 3 2 11. Creighton BE 2-0 22-8 25-5 63.4 +7.9 3 3 12. Memphis Amer 2-0 22-7 27-2 56.7 +9.8 3 6
Not a lot of change at the top. One of the big questions I had was how long it would take before Alabama and UCLA—teams nowhere near the AP top 10 pre-season—dropped out of the 1-line. So far Alabama has held up, scoring 100+ in both their games, while UCLA dropped a notch to a 2-seed. The Bruins won by 31 and 18, but against two of the worst teams in the country. How far will they eventually fall? Their tournament odds roughly held even, but most projections have them somewhere around a 7-seed, with Alabama maybe a 5. UConn and Houston took care of business, the Huskies winning two games by 40+ each and Houston winning by an average of over 40.
Replacing the Bruins on the top line and taking over as Pac-12 champ is Arizona. Their win over Duke wasn't an upset by last year's Strength rating but it's a good road win to have under your belt and the Wildcats move up from a 2-seed. In the Big Twelve, Kansas and Texas swap seeds as the Jayhawks were just a point shy of 100 in both their games, winning by over 40 points on average, while the Longhorns won by a dismal 30 point average. It was enough to drop Texas's tournament odds and give Kansas a near 10% boost. It seems like 40 point wins is the standard to remain in the top two seeds right now.
Memphis was a big mover, up from a 6-seed to a 3-seed and now favored—over Florida Atlantic—to win the American Athletic. The Tigers were knocked out in the first round by FAU in last year's March Madness, and now they're in the same conference. The Tigers got a solid 70-55 road win over Missouri that prompted their move.
| Record | Dance Chance | Seed Rank Team Conf Rec Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg Proj Prev 13. Arkansas SEC 2-0 21-8 25-4 55.7 +7.1 4 5 14. Saint Mary's WCC 2-1 22-8 27-3 55.5 -3.6 4 3 15. Marquette BE 2-0 20-9 24-5 55.3 +2.0 4 4 16. Miami FL ACC 2-0 23-7 27-3 54.8 +10.6 4 7 17. Duke ACC 1-1 23-8 28-3 54.7 +2.9 5 4 18. Iowa St. B12 3-0 20-9 22-7 53.6 +7.8 5 6 19. Florida Atlantic Amer 1-0 22-8 27-3 53.4 +3.1 5 4 20. Kentucky SEC 2-0 21-10 23-8 51.8 +6.3 5 7 21. Baylor B12 3-0 20-10 20-10 50.5 -2.0 6 4 22. San Diego St. MWC 1-1 21-9 25-5 50.4 +2.0 6 5 23. TCU B12 2-0 20-10 22-8 49.7 0.0 6 5 24. Texas A&M SEC 2-0 19-10 22-7 48.8 +9.9 6 10
In the 4-line St. Mary's was lucky only to drop 1 seed after losing 61-57 at home to Weber State (who gained about 50 places but remains well outside the brackets). There's a lot of basketball left to play however so this is one case where a snap judgement was not made by the algorithm! Nor did Duke fall much for the loss to Arizona, which as I said, was expected.
Miami, however, made a huge climb up three lines from a 7- to a 4-seed. The 41 point win over NJIT was nice but the 88-72 win over UCF was what boosted them (they were expected to win by 27 and 5). The Hurricanes got a lot of love from the human polls where they started almost in the top 10, but a lot less from algorithm-based pre-season rankings. The Hurricanes fared a lot better than the other two Final Four teams in this region, Florida Atlantic and San Diego State, both of whom drop a seed this week. The Owls pretty much met expectations in their only game, but maybe Memphis' surge put those games more in doubt? But SDSU took an unexpected 74-65 loss to BYU, though it was on the road.
And don't sleep on Kentucky or Texas A&M. The Wildcats had two solid wins and are up to a 5-seed, while Texas A&M also had two solids including a win over Ohio State in Columbus. They leap 4 seeds to a 6-seed. Meanwhile Baylor falls two seeds despite a good neutral court win over Auburn...could it be the 15 point win over Gardner-Webb? Or perhaps the 26 point win over non-D-I John Brown? With every other team beating legit D-I schools by 40, that does look a bit sluggish.
| Record | Dance Chance | Seed Rank Team Conf Rec Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg Proj Prev 25. Virginia ACC 2-0 22-8 26-4 48.6 +8.3 7 9 26. Xavier BE 2-0 20-10 24-6 47.7 +0.6 7 6 27. USC P12 2-0 19-11 20-10 47.1 +8.6 7 11 28. Oregon P12 2-0 20-10 22-8 45.2 +5.5 7 10 29. Utah St. MWC 1-1 21-10 28-3 44.6 -1.9 8 6 30. Iowa B10 2-0 19-11 19-11 43.4 +2.5 8 9 31. Utah P12 2-0 17-11 18-10 43.4 +15.2 8 32. Auburn SEC 1-1 19-11 24-6 42.1 +0.3 8 8 33. Pittsburgh ACC 2-0 21-9 23-7 42.0 +11.4 9 34. Michigan B10 2-0 18-11 17-12 41.9 +9.4 9 35. Colorado P12 2-0 19-11 21-9 41.4 +11.2 9 36. Mississippi St. SEC 2-0 19-11 19-11 41.2 +11.1 9
This area is full of crazy moves, as the first returns come in to alter expectations. The 7-line features big upward moves from Virginia (who got a neutral court win over Florida), USC (beat Kansas State on neutral court), and Oregon (beat Georgia...yes, on a neutral court). Neutral court wins are a gift that never stops giving in bracketology.
Utah State and Auburn both lost but the Tigers held their 8-seed while the Aggies dropped 2 lines. Auburn's loss was to Baylor (a neutral court loss isn't as bad as a neutral court win is good), while Utah State fell to Bradley in overtime. Not a terrible road loss, but it's an L that was supposed to be a W. Meanwhile rival Utah jumps into an 8-seed from nowhere, up 15% in odds after beating Eastern Washington by 35 and UC Riverside by 29; these were supposed to be just over 10 point wins each!
Speaking of jumping in out of nowhere, that's all we see on the 9-line. Pittsburgh won by 48 and 29; Michigan beat decent foes Asheville and Youngstown State by 25 and 30; Colorado beat Towson 75-57 and Grambling 95-63; and Mississippi State beat Arizona State 71-56 on a neutral court.
| Record | Dance Chance | Seed Rank Team Conf Rec Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg Proj Prev 37. North Carolina ACC 2-0 19-10 19-10 41.0 +1.7 10 10 38. Nevada MWC 2-0 21-9 25-5 40.7 +6.1 10 39. Utah Valley WAC 2-0 21-9 28-2 39.1 +3.1 10 11 40. Boise St. MWC 2-0 19-10 22-7 38.9 -1.4 10 9 41. Michigan St. B10 1-1 19-12 21-10 37.5 -4.3 11 9 42. Illinois B10 2-0 19-13 18-14 37.3 -4.9 11 8 43. Northwestern B10 2-0 19-11 20-10 37.3 -2.4 11 10 44. N.C. State ACC 2-0 20-10 23-7 36.3 -0.1 11 11p 45. Bradley MVC 2-0 22-8 27-3 36.3 +9.9 12 46. Clemson ACC 3-0 19-12 21-10 36.3 +8.1 12p 47. Rutgers B10 2-1 19-12 20-11 35.1 -8.1 12p 7
The top of the bubble. When does being on the bubble matter? Not after week one, that's for sure. But it's still interesting to look at from a predictive perspective. Note that none of these teams have 50% odds yet due to the possibilities being spread out among so many teams (only 20 teams have pure 0.0% odds!).
The Big Ten took a hit with Michigan State, Illinois, and Northwestern all dropping to 11-seeds. The Spartans lost in overtime to James Madison, while Illinois fell even more despite two wins, one being a too-narrow 64-53 win over Oakland at home. Northwestern joined them, falling from a 10-seed after their win over Binghamton (72-61) was deemed insufficiently strong for a 10-seed, I guess. But the biggest drop from a Big Ten team was Rutgers' fall from a 7-seed to the Last Team In. The Scarlet Knights lost their opener to Princeton 68-61 on a neutral floor and struggle with Bryant at home 66-57.
Nevada is a newcomer on the 10-line after beating Washington on the road 83-76, and Bradley and Clemson joined as 12-seeds. Bradley won overtime games over Utah State and UAB, both of whom were seeded pre-season. Will their close-game luck continue? Maybe not; that's why they're only a 12-seed. Clemson also beat UAB (by a point) and beat Davidson, too (both games on neutral court).
| Record | Dance Chance | Seed Rank Team Conf Rec Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg Proj Prev 49. Indiana B10 2-0 18-12 18-12 35.0 -10.1 7 50. Yale Ivy 2-1 21-8 25-4 35.0 +0.8 12 12 51. Penn St. B10 2-0 18-11 20-9 34.8 -3.1 11p 53. UAB Amer 1-2 21-10 24-7 34.1 -2.8 11p 54. Toledo MAC 2-0 22-8 26-4 33.9 +8.2 12 55. Kansas St. B12 1-1 17-13 20-10 33.7 -9.1 8 58. Oral Roberts Sum 1-1 22-7 24-5 33.4 -1.8 12 12 60. Drake MVC 1-0 22-7 25-4 33.0 +1.7 13 63. James Madison SB 3-0 22-7 26-3 31.6 +5.5 13 64. West Virginia B12 1-1 17-13 19-11 31.3 -18.2 5 67. Charleston CAA 1-1 21-8 25-4 30.8 -3.2 13 12 69. Dayton A10 1-1 19-10 26-3 29.7 +2.8 13 70. Maryland B10 1-2 17-14 17-14 29.6 -13.2 8 73. Liberty CUSA 2-0 20-9 24-5 28.3 -0.4 13 75. Iona MAAC 1-1 22-7 27-2 26.9 -4.3 14 13 76. Kent St. MAC 2-1 20-8 24-4 26.7 -5.1 13 77. Ohio St. B10 1-1 16-14 17-13 26.7 -10.4 11p
A lot of teams fell out of the seedings and lost their conference "lead" to another team. The Big Ten took more hits: Indiana fell from a 7-seed despite two wins (69-63 over Florida Gulf Coast and 72-64 over Army); Maryland fell out from an 8-seed after losing to Davidson and UAB (both 3-point losses on neutral courts); and Ohio State fell off the early "bubble" after a loss to Texas A&M. It was a terrible first week for the Big Ten, a clear indication that the conference will be nowhere as good this year as last year. Even Penn State dipped below water despite two wins.
The Big Twelve took a couple of hits too: Kansas State lost to USC in Las Vegas 82-69, and West Virginia fell out of the seedings all the way from a 5-seed after losing 73-65 at home to Monmouth. It's just one game and shouldn't have that big of an effect, but the problem is that West Virginia plays a very tough schedule and was expected to have around 10 losses. Add one and that's 11, and downgrade them just a bit? Now it looks like 17-13 which is very marginal for a team chasing a bid. Teams only 4 or 5 games ahead of .500 can get punished terribly for an unexpected loss.
UAB also fell off the seed line but just barely. Their 2 losses came in overtime (to Bradley) and by a point to Clemson; they rebounded to beat Maryland. It wasn't what they wanted but the Blazers came out of it looking like a tough out for anyone, and they are favored in all but 5 games going forward.
And Yale held their 12-seed. The Bulldogs played almost exactly to pre-season specs in beating Vassar by 49, losing at Gonzaga by 15, and beating Loyola Marymount by 3. Literally, they were like 2 points off total. Toledo, James Madison, Dayton, and Liberty took over as expected conference champs. Toledo got an assist from James Madison, who beat previous Mac-leader Ken State (and also beat Michigan State), while Dayton took over the Atlantic 10 despite losing to Northwestern.
| Record | Dance Chance | Seed Rank Team Conf Rec Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg Proj Prev 83. Sam Houston St. CUSA 1-2 21-10 25-6 25.2 -7.0 13 86. Marshall SB 1-1 19-10 24-5 24.1 -5.2 14 92. Furman SC 2-0 21-8 23-6 22.7 -2.7 14 14 93. VCU A10 1-1 19-10 25-4 21.9 -10.5 12 100. UC Irvine BW 1-1 20-12 23-9 18.3 -2.4 14 14 103. UMass Lowell AE 2-0 22-7 26-3 17.6 +5.5 14 108. Colgate Pat 1-0 21-10 24-7 16.2 +0.6 15 15 123. Montana St. BSky 1-1 20-11 26-5 12.5 -3.9 15 14 131. Vermont AE 2-0 19-10 23-6 11.6 -2.2 15 145. Radford BSth 2-1 19-11 21-9 9.4 +1.8 15 148. Youngstown St. Horz 0-2 20-11 26-5 9.1 -5.9 15 15 173. Texas A&M Corpus Chris Slnd 1-1 21-10 24-7 6.3 +1.2 16 16p 174. Longwood BSth 1-1 21-11 26-6 6.1 -2.0 16 176. Eastern Kentucky ASun 2-0 18-12 20-10 6.1 -1.0 16 184. Kennesaw St. ASun 1-1 18-12 23-7 5.4 -7.5 15 199. Norfolk St. MEAC 2-0 18-10 20-8 3.9 -1.6 16p 222. North Carolina Central MEAC 1-2 18-11 21-8 2.6 -5.9 16 225. Grambling St. SWAC 1-1 16-13 19-10 2.5 -3.4 16p 16p 247. Fairleigh Dickinson NEC 2-1 19-12 22-9 1.3 -0.5 16p 16p 250. SIU Edwardsville OVC 1-1 17-14 18-13 1.2 -1.5 16p 287. Southeast Missouri St. OVC 0-2 17-14 19-12 0.3 -2.4 16p
Sam Houston State handed the C-USA to Liberty after losing twice (to Utah Valley at home, in OT) and to Oklahoma State. Marshall ceded the lead in the Sun Belt after being upset by Radford, 66-62, and VCU lost the A10 lead with a home loss to McNeese State. Massachusetts-Lowell took over the America East, scoring a solid 81-48 win over Dartmouth.
Radford lost to North Carolina but beat Marshall, enough to take the lead in the Big South from Longwood. Like previous America East leader Vermont, the Lancers didn't have a bad week (lost to St. Bonaventure by 4), but didn't exceed expectations and the tournament odds% for teams in ranked > 100 are going to drop quite a bit each week.
Other conference "takeovers" include Eastern Kentucky over Kennesaw State in the Atlantic Sun after the latter lost to FSU 94-67; Norfolk State over NC Central in the MEAC following two big losses by the Eagles, to Kansas (99-56) and Georgia (64-54, not bad); and Edwardsville over SE Missouri after the Redhawks lost both their games (to Grand Canyon and Butler) while Edwardsville went 1-1 (lost to Dayton, beat non D-I North Park). The Ohio Valley isn't the best conference to say the least.
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