All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Connecticut Huskies
Seed: 4
Record: 30-8
Conference: Big East
vs.
San Diego State Aztecs
Seed: 5
Record: 32-6
Conference: Mountain West
Date: Monday, April 3
Time: 9:20 pm Eastern
Location: Houston, TX
Channel: CBS
Since 1985, only one 4-seed (Arizona) has won it all, and no 5-seed has.
Connecticut San Diego State
Power Ratings
Strength: #2 Strength: #19
Median: #6 Median: #17
Markov: #1 Markov: #13
Pomeroy: #1 Pomeroy: #14
Offense: #3 Offense: #68
Defense: #8 Defense: #4
BPI: #3 BPI: #15
LRMC: #4 LRMC: #17
Other Measures:
SOS: #32 SOS: #50
Tempo (Offense): #245 Tempo (Offense): #172
Consistency: #284 Consistency: #54
NCAA Tournament: #1(#1) NCAA Tournament: #2(#8)
MegaScreen MegaScreen
Winner: NA Winner: NA
Title Game: #10 Title Game: NA
4-seed UConn ranks like a 1-seed, now #1 in Pomeroy, #2 in Strength, #3 in BPI, and #4 in LRMC (which doesn't update). 5-seed San Diego State still basically ranks like a 5-seed in the teens in every power rating. They're very close when UConn as the ball, the #3 offense vs. #4 defense, but on the other side of the court UConn's top 10 defense faces SDSU's poor offense, which at #68 is actually down from #67 at the beginning of the tourney.
UConn has easily played the best basketball of any team in the tournament, winning every game by double digits. San Diego State is of course #2 of the 2 teams left but over a 5-game sample they're well behind the Huskies.
As we noted in earlier reviews, the MegaScreen had UConn (at the start) having a decent shot at making the title game, especially for a 4-seed, but they were screened out as a potential winner from the fact that they didn't have a win in the last three tournaments. If they win they'll be the first team to do that in the 64+ team era (I didn't check the rest).
San Diego State wasn't in the mix for the title game and as for being the winner, they were screened out in four areas: their Strength+Potential was too low, their offensive efficiency of #67 was too low (worst was #57), their offense ranking + their defensive ranking of 77 was too low (worst was 69) and like UConn they also had no wins in the last 3 tournaments.
So no matter who wins, the 37-tournament-old standard that you must have a win over the last 3 tournaments is out the door. Both teams had 2 appearances in the last 3 tournaments so that will become the new minimum standard to meet. This was a very unusual year and the MegaScreen was clearly too picky!
- Wins vs. tournament teams (11): =(1)Alabama+15, =(6)Iowa St.+18, (6)Creighton+9, (2)Marquette+15, (11)Providence+18, =(11)Providence+7, =(13)Iona+24, =(5)Saint Mary's+15, =(8)Arkansas+23, =(3)Gonzaga+28, =(5)Miami FL+13
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (5): =(1)Alabama+15, (6)Creighton+9, =(8)Arkansas+23, =(3)Gonzaga+28, =(5)Miami FL+13
- Wins vs. Final Four (1): =(5)Miami FL+13
- Losses to tournament teams (6): @(3)Xavier-10, @(11)Providence-12, @(2)Marquette-6, (3)Xavier-3, @(6)Creighton-3, =(2)Marquette-2
- Other losses (2): St. John's-11, @Seton Hall-1
Overview: As mentioned UConn was the best team in the country until late December; they had beaten 1-seed Alabama 82-67 and 6-seed Iowa State in Portland and raced to a 14-0 start. But around game 13 they downshifted a gear it seems; the wins over Georgetown (84-73) and Villanova (74-66) at home weren't dominant. Sure enough, losses followed, most but not all to tournament teams. In all they lost 6 of 8 before slowly recovering their mojo. Finally at the end they put together another solid win streak of six games that ended in a 2-point loss to 2-seed Marquette. Have they truly regained their early season form? The first two games of the tournament said yes, and it's impossible to argue after the Arkansas and Gonzaga games, their best efforts of the season period.
6-9 forward Adama Sanogo is the team's leader in points (16.8) and rebounds (7.3). The Huskies are a tall team, who often have every player on the court at 6-5 or over and also have a 7-2 backup center. UConn beat Iona behind Sanogo's 28 points (on 13 of 17 shooting). The Huskies were even more impressive against St. Mary's, winning 70-55 against the tough 5-seed; this time Sanogo had 24 on 11 of 16 shooting. Jordan Hawkins led with 24 including 9 of 9 free throws in the 88-65 blowout of Arkansas. And in case you thought they couldn't beat Gonzaga even worse than Arkansas, you'd be wrong: the Huskies thrashed the Zags 82-54, holding Drew Timme to 12 points while Hawkins had 20. They played their worst game of the tournament so far against Miami but still won by 13 points; Sanogo had 21.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (11): (14)Kennesaw St.+34, (11)Nevada+9, (10)Utah St.+10, (10)Boise St.+20, @(10)Utah St.+2, =(10)Utah St.+5, =(12)Charleston+6, =(13)Furman+23, =(1)Alabama+7, =(6)Creighton+1, =(9)Florida Atlantic+1
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (3): =(1)Alabama+7, =(6)Creighton+1, =(9)Florida Atlantic+1
- Wins vs. Final Four (1): =(9)Florida Atlantic+1
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =(2)Arizona-17, =(8)Arkansas-OT, =(5)Saint Mary's-7, @(11)Nevada-9, @(10)Boise St.-6
- Other losses (1): New Mexico-9
Overview: San Diego State had a challenging pre-conference season, beating BYU, Stanford, and Ohio State but losing to tournament teams Arizona (2-seed), Arkansas (8-seed, in overtime), and Saint Mary's (5). They went 5-2 against the qualifiers from the Mountain West in a year when that league was essentially the 7th Major conference. The Aztecs never won more than six games in a row so it's easy to overlook that they finished the regular season 20-3. Now at the Elite Eight they've finally won 7 in a row.
The Aztecs spread scoring out very evenly over 9 players; only guard Matt Bradley averages in double figures (12.9) and against Charleston he indeed was the only Aztec in double figures, leading with 17 points. There were even nine players who scored, so they couldn't have lived up to their billing any better. Against Furman Micah Parrish led with 16 while point guard Darion Trammell had 21 points in the huge upset of 1-seed Alabama. Lamont Butler had 18 as the Aztecs made the Final Four by beating Creighton, holding the Bluejays to 56 points. Matt Bradley had 21 vs. FAU but it was Lamont Butler whose last-second shot gave them the 72-71 win to put the Aztecs in the finals.
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Game Analysis: The big, obvious difference here is in offensive efficiency, where UConn is top ten and San Diego State is #68 but has somehow got by on their great defensive play. That and the fact that UConn is in general playing like one of the best tournament teams ever.
The Aztec offense doesn't have much to work with against UConn, who defends the 2 and the 3 equally well while SDSU shoots both poorly. The Aztecs won't have a rebounding advantage here either. UConn does foul on D quite a bit so SDSU will score a lot of their points from the line where they shoot a mediocre 72.4%.
They'll have to win it with defense, by getting steals and shutting down UConn from the 3-point line. Trouble is the Aztec D isn't really elite against 2-point shots and UConn shoots the 2 very well. The Huskies rebound great on offense (#2 in the nation) so that's another problem. Turnovers is the only hope for the Aztecs, really, to get enough stops and give them the additional opportunities on offense that they will desperately need.
Vegas Line:
Connecticut by 7 1/2
Power rating: spread
Connecticut by 7
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Connecticut: 68.4%
San Diego St: 31.6%
Vegas has the Huskies by a slightly wider spread which is unusual, but if you look at recent play (during the tournament) it's no wonder. For the full season UConn wins 68% of the game comparisons but of the last 5 games UConn win a staggering 92% and is playing 13 1/2 points better than San Diego State.
Bottom line: San Diego State's offensive woes finally catch up to them.
Final prediction: Connecticut 70, San Diego State 57
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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