Texas just throttled Kansas 76-56 to win the toughest conference in the nation, and they're probably going to settle for a 2-seed. That's the consensus anyway, and I don't see any pushback from that at all, so it's likely a done deal if everything else goes to script. Is there any scenario where they Longhorns are a 1-seed? Let's speculate.
Rank Team Rec Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(Mar 10) 1. Kansas 27-7 B12 100.0 0.0 1 1 2. Texas 26-8 B12 100.0 0.0 1 1 3. Purdue 28-5 B10 100.0 0.0 1 1 4. Alabama 28-5 SEC 100.0 0.0 1 1 5. Houston 31-2 Amer 100.0 0.0 2 2 6. UCLA 29-5 P12 100.0 0.0 2 2
The Dance Chance is definitely high on the Big Twelve, keeping Kansas as the overall 1-seed while Texas is right behind them at #2! So there's no way things change here based on today's games. UCLA's loss knocked them out of contention, while Purdue and Alabama will hold their 1-seeds with a win. Houston is a consensus 1-seed with everyone else but languishes as the top 2-seed here. If Purdue, Alabama, and Houston win, our order stays the same. Is there any way things are brought into alignment with the consensus?
If Purdue loses, the consensus might drop the Boilermakers to a 2-seed, leaving an opening for Texas. But the Dance Chance would stubbornly keep Purdue as the last 1-seed.
If Alabama loses, the consensus keeps the Tide as a 1-seed, as they are a candidate for the overall 1-seed. And the Dance Chance would keep the Tide as the final 1-seed.
The question is what happens with a Houston loss. Obviously in the Dance Chance the Cougars remain a 2-seed. But would they be knocked down to a 2-seed? And if so, does Texas replace them on the top line? Or would it still be Arizona or UCLA?
The choosing of 1-seeds is where many "systems" breaks down because matters of very human "choice" come into play, like how much to value a conference championship, and recent play. There's a tendency to want to spread the 1-seeds out among the conferences, too, unless there are teams that have very few losses in the same conference.
Rank Team Rec Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(Mar 10) 7. Gonzaga 28-5 WCC 100.0 0.0 2 2 8. Kansas St. 23-9 B12 100.0 0.0 2 2 9. Baylor 22-10 B12 100.0 0.0 3 3 10. Arizona 28-6 P12 100.0 0.0 3 3 11. Marquette 28-6 BE 100.0 0.0 3 4 12. Tennessee 23-10 SEC 100.0 0.0 3 3 13. Connecticut 25-8 BE 100.0 0.0 4 4 14. Indiana 22-11 B10 100.0 0.0 4 3 15. TCU 21-12 B12 100.0 0.0 4 4 16. Iowa St. 19-13 B12 100.0 0.0 4 4 17. Duke 26-8 ACC 100.0 +0.0 5 5 18. Virginia 25-7 ACC 100.0 0.0 5 5
Gonzaga gets a lot of love from the Dance Chance too that they won't get from the Selection Committee, at least according to other bracketologists. We think the Zags deserve a 2-seed, though having K-State and Baylor both on the 2-line does seem excessive. Arizona and Marquette probably deserve 2-seeds more than the Big Twelve squads.
The same goes for the teams on the 4-line: TCU and Iowa State, who should be 5-seeds while Duke and Virginia might be 4-seeds. The Cavaliers would have made it with a win but instead both ACC teams stayed below the Big Twelve darlings.
Rank Team Rec Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(Mar 10) 19. Xavier 25-9 BE 100.0 +0.0 5 5 20. San Diego St. 27-6 MWC 100.0 +0.0 5 5 21. Florida Atlantic 31-3 CUSA 100.0 +0.0 6 6 22. Saint Mary's 26-7 WCC 100.0 +0.0 6 6 23. Northwestern 21-11 B10 99.9 0.0 6 6 24. Texas A&M 25-8 SEC 99.8 +4.5 6 7 25. Illinois 20-12 B10 97.6 +0.2 7 7 26. West Virginia 19-14 B12 95.5 -4.1 7 6 27. Maryland 21-12 B10 93.4 +0.2 7 7 28. Rutgers 19-14 B10 91.3 +0.2 7 7 29. Penn St. 22-12 B10 89.2 +10.8 8 9
Two teams in this range could really shake things up. Texas A&M is already a 6-seed and could move higher with an upset of Alabama in the SEC tournament final. And 8-seed Penn State—only a 9- or 10-seed by consensus—could make a 7-seed if they beat Purdue.
Another team to note here is Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights are very solidly "in" the tournament according to the Dance Chance, but many people have them in the Last Four In! We're betting that the Knights make it, maybe not as a 7-seed but at least a solid 10-seed. We'll find out soon.
Rank Team Rec Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(Mar 10) 30. Miami FL 25-7 ACC 87.0 +0.2 8 8 31. Michigan St. 19-12 B10 84.9 +0.2 8 8 32. Creighton 21-12 BE 82.8 -6.2 8 8 33. Iowa 19-13 B10 80.7 +4.4 9 9 34. Utah St. 26-8 MWC 78.6 -4.1 9 8 35. Kentucky 21-11 SEC 76.4 +2.3 9 9 36. Missouri 24-9 SEC 74.3 -6.2 9 9 37. Arkansas 20-13 SEC 72.2 +0.1 10 10 38. Boise St. 24-9 MWC 70.1 +0.1 10 10 39. Memphis 25-8 Amer 68.0 +2.2 10 10 40. Auburn 20-12 SEC 65.8 -2.0 10 10
These teams are all in the tournament by consensus but at this level there could be some surprises. It would be a pretty big surprise, but nothing's certain. Utah State for a long time wasn't in most people's brackets or even on their radar, but they've been a stalwart of the Dance Chance all season.
Memphis has a lot of upside and very little downside playing Houston today. At worst they fall to an 11-seed and at best with an upset win they climb to around an 8-seed.
Rank Team Rec Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(Mar 10) 41. N.C. State 23-10 ACC 63.7 +2.2 11 11 42. Oral Roberts 30-4 Sum 61.6 +2.2 11 11 43. USC 22-10 P12 59.5 +2.2 11 11p 44. Oklahoma St. 18-15 B12 57.4 -6.2 11p 11 45. Nevada 22-10 MWC 55.2 +0.1 11p 11p 46. Providence 21-11 BE 53.1 +0.1 12p 12p 47. Mississippi St. 21-12 SEC 51.0 +0.1 12p 12p 48. North Carolina 20-13 ACC 48.9 +0.1 49. Oregon 19-14 P12 46.8 +6.4 50. Clemson 23-10 ACC 44.6 +6.4 51. New Mexico 22-11 MWC 42.5 +0.0 52. Pittsburgh 22-11 ACC 40.4 +4.2 53. Arizona St. 22-12 P12 38.3 +6.4 ... 66. Vanderbilt 20-14 SEC 10.7 -4.3
Here's where all the doubt creeps in, and it makes sense: the bubble is the only area of contention. I've tweaked the algorithm a bit more going into today as teams with poor records were still vastly overvalued. Now the bubble consists of all the teams that are realistically in play for a bid, even if the Dance Chance doesn't quite agree with the consensus. Here are the teams in question:
- Rutgers, as mentioned before. We think the Knights are solidly in, and that the consensus is wrong to doubt them
- NC State, Providence, and Mississippi State: The consensus has these teams in but there is some doubt. The Dance Chance's confidence in NC State is pretty high but as seen above, Providence and Mississippi State are right on the borderline so confidence is low
- Oklahoma State and Nevada: Consensus has these teams in the First Four Out, while the Dance Chance has them in the Last Four In. That's a pretty close call, and not really much of a disagreement
- Pittsburgh and Arizona State: Consensus has these teams in the Last Four in; the Dance Chance has them out, and even outside the First Four Out
The last two teams are the major disagreement between the other bracketologists and the Dance Chance. Pitt and Arizona State just don't rate very well here. Personally I think Pitt has a pretty good chance, while Arizona State would have to benefit from "there has to be a 4th Pac-12 team" sentiment. Oregon even ranks higher here, though their record might turn off the Committee.
Another puzzler for me is the talk about Vanderbilt. By any measure they fall short—way short—as seen above. But they've played exceptionally well lately which is why there's some talk about them getting a bid. The Committee has always said over the years (and decades!) that "last ten games" is not a factor, and the full season is viewed equally. If Vanderbilt gets in, that is explicitly not the case! The same goes in reverse for Rutgers, who played poorly down the stretch.
So basically, the Dance Chance says Rutgers has only a 10% chance of missing the Dance, while Vandy has only a 10% chance of making it. The other teams in question are well within reasonable probabilities of making or missing the cut.
Rank Team Rec Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(Mar 10) 54. Charleston 31-3 CAA 36.2 +2.1 12 12 56. Drake 27-7 MVC 31.9 +4.2 12 12 59. Kent St. 28-6 MAC 25.6 +6.3 12 12 65. VCU 26-7 A10 12.8 +4.1 13 13 70. Yale 21-7 Ivy 2.2 +2.1 13 13 73. Dayton 22-11 A10 0.1 -0.1 75. Iona 27-7 MAAC 0.1 -0.1 13 13 80. Louisiana 26-7 SB 0.1 0.0 13 13 81. Furman 27-7 SC 0.1 0.0 14 14 93. Grand Canyon 24-11 WAC 0.1 +0.0 14 94. Southern Utah 22-12 WAC 0.1 -0.1 14 103. Montana St. 25-9 BSky <0.1 0.0 14 14 105. UC Santa Barbara 27-7 BW <0.1 0.0 14 14 108. Colgate 26-8 Pat <0.1 0.0 15 15 110. Princeton 20-8 Ivy <0.1 0.0 113. Kennesaw St. 26-8 ASun <0.1 0.0 15 15 114. Vermont 23-10 AE <0.1 0.0 15 15 130. UNC Asheville 27-7 BSth 0.0 --- 15 15 143. Grambling St. 24-9 SWAC 0.0 --- 16 144. Northern Kentucky 22-12 Horz 0.0 --- 16 16 151. Norfolk St. 22-11 MEAC 0.0 --- 16p 153. Texas A&M Corpus Chris 23-10 Slnd 0.0 --- 16 16p 156. Howard 22-12 MEAC 0.0 --- 16p 222. Southeast Missouri St. 19-16 OVC 0.0 --- 16p 16p 264. Fairleigh Dickinson 19-15 NEC 0.0 --- 16p 16p 289. Texas Southern 14-20 SWAC 0.0 --- 16p
The 1-bid leagues are almost settled. Yale plays Princeton for the Ivy League title, and VCU takes on Dayton for the Atlantic 10 bid, and both the favorites are almost certainly out if they fail to win (though right not VCU has better odds than Vanderbilt).
A few surprises: Grand Canyon beat Southern Utah to win the WAC; Howard topped Norfolk State in the MEAC; and 14-20 Texas Southern won the Southwest Athletic Conference, beating 24-9 Grambling.
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