Two days of action before (and on) Selection Sunday.
Rank Team Rec Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(Mar 9) 1. Kansas 27-6 B12 100.0 0.0 1 1 2. Alabama 27-5 SEC 100.0 0.0 1 1 3. Purdue 27-5 B10 100.0 0.0 1 1 4. Texas 25-8 B12 100.0 0.0 1 1 5. UCLA 29-4 P12 100.0 0.0 2 2 6. Houston 30-2 Amer 100.0 0.0 2 2 7. Gonzaga 28-5 WCC 100.0 0.0 2 2 8. Kansas St. 23-9 B12 100.0 0.0 2 2
Texas is looking stronger and stronger and if they beat Kansas today, they will lock up a 1-seed—in the Dance Chance, at least. Other bracketologists are not convinced, and most have Houston a solid 1-seed. Here, UCLA nudges past the Cougars and will get the final 1-seed if Texas falters. Given that UCLA was #8 in the Committee's Top 16 "preview" the Bruins might be left a 2-seed even as Pac-12 champs.
Rank Team Rec Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(Mar 9) 9. Baylor 22-10 B12 100.0 0.0 3 3 10. Tennessee 23-10 SEC 100.0 0.0 3 3 11. Arizona 27-6 P12 100.0 +0.0 3 4 12. Indiana 22-10 B10 100.0 +0.0 3 4 13. Connecticut 25-8 BE 100.0 0.0 4 3 14. Marquette 27-6 BE 100.0 +0.0 4 4 15. TCU 21-12 B12 100.0 +0.0 4 4 16. Iowa St. 19-13 B12 100.0 0.0 4 3 17. Virginia 25-6 ACC 100.0 +0.0 5 5 18. Xavier 25-8 BE 99.9 0.0 5 5 19. Duke 25-8 ACC 99.9 0.0 5 5 20. San Diego St. 26-6 MWC 99.9 +2.8 5 7
Arizona moves up but the Dance Chance might not have them any higher than a 3-seed even if they beat UCLA. Marquette's win over UConn almost put them ahead of the Huskies, but they'll need to beat Xavier to finally become our top Big East team.
TCU and Iowa State both lost and fell a few rungs but stayed 4-seeds. Realistically there won't be six Big Twelve teams in the top 4 seeds so both should be considered 5-seeds. Virginia can move into a 4-seed by beating Duke. San Diego State, a pre-season 1-seed in our rankings, has their best seeding in quite a while as they head into the Mountain West conference tournament final against Utah State.
Rank Team Rec Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(Mar 9) 41. Oklahoma St. 18-15 B12 63.6 -1.3 11 10 42. N.C. State 23-10 ACC 61.5 +3.1 11 11 43. Oral Roberts 30-4 Sum 59.4 -1.2 11 11 44. USC 22-10 P12 57.3 +1.0 11p 11p 45. Nevada 22-10 MWC 55.2 +3.0 11p 12p 46. Providence 21-11 BE 53.1 +2.9 12p 12p 47. Mississippi St. 21-12 SEC 50.9 -3.3 12p 11p 48. North Carolina 20-13 ACC 48.8 +3.3 49. Wisconsin 17-14 B10 46.7 +3.3 50. Michigan 17-15 B10 44.6 -5.2 51. New Mexico 22-11 MWC 42.5 +3.4 52. Oregon 19-14 P12 40.4 -0.8 53. Clemson 23-10 ACC 38.3 -9.4 54. Pittsburgh 22-11 ACC 36.2 -0.8 55. Charleston 31-3 CAA 34.0 +1.4 12 12 56. Arizona St. 22-12 P12 31.9 -2.8 57. UAB 25-8 CUSA 29.8 +5.8
Here's where it gets murky. The bubble looked a lot cleaner yesterday but the Last Four In contains some questionable teams, as Mississippi State stayed in despite their loss, and Nevada and Providence are on shaky ground too. Oklahoma State is pretty firmly in by our estimates but at 18-15 they're not regarded well by other Bracketologists who put them in the First Four Out.
Speaking of the First Four Out, North Carolina has nudged to the top of that list as Clemson and Arizona State's threats diminished will tournament losses. And Michigan's threat diminished with an algorithm nudge, let's be honest. Teams with "tight" records like 17-15 or 18-15 need to be accounted for as there is clearly a Committee bias against such teams, regardless of profile.
But UNC remains well ahead of Pittsburgh, another team that many have in the Last Four In. The Panthers aren't even in the First Four Out here, so it will be interesting to see what the Committee does. When it comes down to the eight teams that cluster around the dividing line, it's no sin to miss a team here and there. But if the Committee puts Pitt in and keeps Oklahoma State out, it's definitely a bias our algorithm doesn't account for. Pitt's best argument over Oklahoma State is overall record and in-conference finish. Viewed against North Carolina, Pitt they has two bad losses while UNC has none, but they did much better in the ACC and beat the Tar Heels twice—something our formula doesn't consider but the Committee would definitely look at if choosing one or the other to make the Dance.
Rank Team Rec Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(Mar 9) 64. Vanderbilt 20-13 SEC 15.0 +1.8 ... 74. Ohio St. 16-18 B10 0.2 -0.1
And finally, here are the Cinderellas of the conference tournament season. Vanderbilt has a decent overall record and a 15% chance of making the tournament, while Ohio State's odds haven't budged at all despite their Big Ten run. Their 16-18 record is the reason, as they can't even finish .500 without winning the tournament in which case the at-large bid becomes moot.
Vandy would be 21-14 if they beat Texas A&M and lose in the SEC final; that probably won't be enough to make the tournament, or even have a really good chance. Their tournament so far has consisted of beating woeful LSU and upsetting Kentucky, so it's not really amazing just yet. But the finish to their season has been remarkable, with 10 wins and only one loss (to woeful LSU). It looks like Vandy will be in the NIT, while for Ohio State it's NCAA or bust (though bust could mean the CBI I guess)
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