All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Creighton Bluejays
Seed: 6
Record: 23-12
Conference: Big East
vs.
Princeton Tigers
Seed: 15
Record: 23-8
Conference: Ivy League
Date: Friday, March 24
Time: 9:00 pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Louisville, KY
Channel: TBS
Princeton hopes to become only the 2nd 15-seed to make the Elite Eight. The other? St. Peter's just last year.
Creighton Princeton
Power Ratings
Strength: #10 Strength: #94
Median: #9 Median: #109
Markov: #13 Markov: #92
Pomeroy: #12 Pomeroy: #91
Offense: #24 Offense: #100
Defense: #13 Defense: #96
BPI: #11 BPI: #110
LRMC: #14 LRMC: #138
Other Measures:
SOS: #10 SOS: #165
Tempo (Offense): #133 Tempo (Offense): #254
Consistency: #154 Consistency: #216
Str + Reliability: #7 Str + Reliability: #102
Str + Potential: #16 Str + Potential: #95
2nd half season: #7 2nd half season: #95
NCAA Tournament: #7 NCAA Tournament: #4
Injury Mod Rank: #9 Injury Mod Rank: #95
MegaScreen MegaScreen
Winner: NA Winner: NA
Final Four: NA Final Four: NA
Creighton is only a 6-seed but they're one hell of a 6. Top ten in Strength and nearly top ten in the other power ratings, the Bluejays are top 25 in both offense and defense, something a lot of top 3 seeds can't say usually. They're also top ten in all the "recent play" stats.
Princeton is around #100 in most of the power ratings (and only #138 in LRMC which doesn't update during the tournament). On offense and defense they're similar—around #100. Creighton should have a big edge on both sides of the floor according to that, but when it come to the two games of the tournament they're #4 out of the 16 remaining teams.
Neither team gets respect from the MegaScreen. Creighton is out of the Final Four due to losing 6 straight games during the regular season, and Princeton is screened out for 16 different reasons! The Bluejays do pass the Elite Eight screen (at #9) while Princeton doesn't.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): =(8)Arkansas+3, (11)Providence+6, (3)Xavier+17, (4)Connecticut+3, =(11)N.C. State+9, =(3)Baylor+9
- Wins vs. tournament teams (3): =(8)Arkansas+3, ((3)Xavier+17, (4)Connecticut+3
- Losses to tournament teams (9): =(2)Arizona-2, @(2)Texas-5, =(11)Arizona St.-2, @(2)Marquette-11, @(4)Connecticut-9, @(3)Xavier-3, @(11)Providence-OT, (2)Marquette-2, =(3)Xavier-22
- Other losses (3): Nebraska-10, =BYU-3, @Villanova-12
Overview: Creighton was an AP poll darling early and at 6-0 they had already beaten 8-seed Arkansas. Then they went on a 6-games skid and all that goodwill was squandered. They really only played one bad game—the home loss to Nebraska—in that stretch which included three 2-seeds (Arizona, Texas, and Marquette) as well as 11-seed ASU, plus BYU in Las Vegas. Two more losses quickly followed to 4-seed UConn and 3-seed Xavier but they held up in the power ratings so their comeback didn't surprise anyone knowledgable. The Bluejays won 8 straight, beating 11-seed Providence, 3-seed Xavier, and 4-seed UConn before hitting a bit more turbulence in the tough Big East. After three solid wins they got beat 82-60 by Xavier in their final outing which stands as their worst game. But they've come back from adversity before.
7-1 center Ryan Kalkbrenner is the team's leading scorer at 15.4 ppg; he was gone for three games during Creighton's 6-game skid, and counting just the game he has played the Bluejays are a top ten team in Strength. The Bluejays bounced back from the big Xavier loss with a solid 72-63 win over NC State behind Kalkbrenner's 31 points (10 of 13 FG). Ryan Nembhard was the star against Baylor, scoring 30 points.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (2): =(2)Arizona+4, =(7)Missouri+15
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (1): =(13)Iona-6
- Other losses (7): Hofstra-6, @Navy-1, Delaware-7, @Brown-2, @Yale-22, @Dartmouth-7, Yale-OT
Overview: Princeton's season started with two losses but when faced with easier foes they won 8 straight. Then they met 13-seed Iona and lost. And the pattern repeated, whenever Princeton faced someone in the top 100 they would lose, and then recovered with wins over lesser opponents. After two losses to Yale (#67 in Pomeroy) the Tigers finally got a solid win and it gave them an NCAA berth. Beating 2-seed Arizona gave them their first win over a tourney team this year. Wow. And at the Sweet Sixteen, each game is better than the last.
6-8" Princeton forward Tosan Evbuomwan leads the team in scoring with 15.0 ppg but also in assists with 4.8 per game as well as in steals. Evbuomwan had 15 points in the 59-55 upset of Arizona. He had just 9 against Missouri but Ryan Langborg had 22 as the Tigers pulled away in the 2nd half for a strong 78-63 win.
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Game Analysis: Only 3 15-seeds have made it to the Sweet Sixteen, and only one of those made it to the Elite Eight. In 2013 Florida Gulf Coast beat 2-seed Georgetown and 7-seed San Diego State before losing to 3-seed Florida 62-50. In 2021 Oral Roberts beat 2-seed Ohio State and 7-seed Florida before losing to 3-seed Arkansas, 72-70. Then last year St. Peter's beat 2-seed Kentucky, 7-seed Murray State, and 3-seed Purdue (67-64) before falling to 8-seed and eventual runner-up North Carolina. Note that all of them faced a 3-seed in the Sweet Sixteen rather than a 6-seed.
In terms of their finishing Kenpom ranking, Florida Gulf Coast was #105, Oral Roberts was #125, and St. Peter's #102. Right now Princeton is #91, better than all three. The teams the other 15-seeds played in the Sweet Sixteen ended up ranked #2 (loss), #18 (loss), and #14 (win). Creighton is ranked #12. Clearly FGCU faced one of the best teams in the country in Florida; Oral Roberts and St. Peter's faced a foe comparable to Creighton and the games were very close.
Note that in comparing the teams' shooting/rebounding stats, etc, we have to keep in mind that Creighton played a top ten schedule strength while Princeton played the #165 schedule. But here are the keys to the matchup. Whether Princeton has the ball or not they are at a great disadvantage in efficiency (read: quality). They shoot the ball pretty well but Creighton defends better. They rebound poorly on offense but very well on defense, so there shouldn't be many 2nd opportunities for either team.
Creighton's ability to score 2-point baskets looks like the biggest edge, as well as shooting 78% free throws to Princeton's 71.5%. With 7-1 Ryan Kalkenbrenner the Bluejays should have a big edge inside, but Arizona had a much bigger height advantage and despite their bigs scoring 35 points the Wildcats lost. Princeton didn't even shoot great from the 3 there, just 16%. It's almost like they're doing some kind of magic.
Vegas Line:
Creighton by 9 1/2
Power rating: spread
Creighton by 11.1
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Creighton: 79.1%
Princeton: 20.9%
Only 3 15-seeds have made it this far and none of them has faced a 6-seed before so this is uncharted territory in seed vs. seed history. But 1 of the 3 that made it here went on to the Elite Eight, so we would assume that the odds against a 6-seed are at least that good (it's such a small sample that the actual odds could be anywhere 0 < x < 67%. But we'll go with 1 in 3. Or 21% works, too.
For comparison, the game-comparison system gave FCGU a 10.3% chance to beat Florida; Oral Roberts a 13.8% chance to beat Arkansas; and St. Peter's a 15.8% chance to beat Purdue—or 21.7% chance if you gave them home court for playing less than 100 miles from home while Purdue was over 700 miles away.
Bottom line: This looks like a 50/50 game, with a really good team going up against one that's currently on fire. The fact that Princeton has been a bit better than Creighton over two tournament games is striking since the Bluejays themselves have been so good. Creighton is more like a 3-seed than a 6-seed but St. Peter's blazed the trail last year as a 15-seed by beating the 3-seed to get to the Elite Eight and we'll take the 15-seed one more time.
Final prediction: Princeton 71, Creighton 70
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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