All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
UConn Huskies
Seed: 4
Record: 27-8
Conference: Big East
vs.
Arkansas Razorbacks
Seed: 8
Record: 22-13
Conference: SEC
Date: Thursday, March 23
Time: 7:15 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Las Vegas
Channel: CBS
Historically the 8-seed wins when they meet a 4-seed. But it hasn't happened very often.
UConn Arkansas
Power Ratings
Strength: #4 Strength: #16
Median: #6 Median: #27
Markov: #2 Markov: #26
Pomeroy: #4 Pomeroy: #18
Offense: #3 Offense: #50
Defense: #14 Defense: #15
BPI: #6 BPI: #14
LRMC: #4 LRMC: #23
Other Measures:
SOS: #46 SOS: #13
Tempo (Offense): #237 Tempo (Offense): #140
Consistency: #222 Consistency: #177
Str + Reliability: #3 Str + Reliability: #20
Str + Potential: #5 Str + Potential: #27
2nd half season: #6 2nd half season: #31
NCAA Tournament: #1 NCAA Tournament: #9
Injury Mod Rank: #4 Injury Mod Rank: #19
MegaScreen MegaScreen
Winner: NA Winner: NA
Final Four: #6 Final Four: NA
UConn, especially after the last 2 games, ranks more like a 1-seed than a 4-seed. #4 in Strength, Pomeroy, and LRMC (on Selection Sunday, even), with BPI just behind at #6. That's a tough 4-seed. On offense they rank #3, and on defense they're pretty solid too.
For their part Arkansas is more like a 4-seed than an 8-seed. Their Strength, Pomeroy, and BPI are all top 20 and LRMC isn't updated. The Razorbacks' weakness is clearly offensive play as their defense is solidly top 20.
That's pretty much the relevant story. For the 2 games of the tournament so far UConn is playing the best of anyone, while Arkansas is in the top 10 of the 16 and had one of the biggest moments, knocking off a 1-seed. Neither team is considered a threat to win it all by the MegaScreen while UConn was a decent Final Four option on Selection Sunday. Arkansas was screened out of the Final Four even, due to their dismal 2-8 road record.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): =(1)Alabama+15, =(6)Iowa St.+18, (6)Creighton+9, (2)Marquette+15, (11)Providence+18, =(11)Providence+7, =(13)Iona+24, =(5)Saint Mary's+15
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): =(1)Alabama+15, (6)Creighton+9
- Losses to tournament teams (6): @(3)Xavier-10, @(11)Providence-12, @(2)Marquette-6, (3)Xavier-3, @(6)Creighton-3, =(2)Marquette-2
- Other losses (2): St. John's-11, @Seton Hall-1
Overview: As mentioned UConn was the best team in the country until late December; they had beaten 1-seed Alabama 82-67and 6-seed Iowa State in Portland and raced to a 14-0 start. But around game 13 they downshifted a gear it seems; the wins over Georgetown (84-73) and Villanova (74-66) at home weren't dominant. Sure enough, losses followed, most but not all to tournament teams. In all they lost 6 of 8 before slowly recovering their mojo. Finally at the end they put together another solid win streak of six games that ended in a 2-point loss to 2-seed Marquette. Have they truly regained their early season form? The first two games of the tournament say yes.
6-9 forward Adama Sanogo is the team's leader in points (16.8) and rebounds (7.3). The Huskies are a tall team, who often have every player on the court at 6-5 or over and also have a 7-2 backup center. UConn beat Iona behind Sanogo's 28 points (on 13 of 17 shooting). The Huskies were even more impressive against St. Mary's, winning 70-55 against the tough 5-seed; this time Sanogo had 24 on 11 of 16 shooting.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): =(5)San Diego St.+OT, (15)UNC Asheville+34, (7)Missouri+6, (7)Texas A&M+11, @(6)Kentucky+15, =(9)Auburn+3, =(9)Illinois+10, =(1)Kansas+1
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): =(5)San Diego St.+OT
- Losses to tournament teams (11): =(6)Creighton-3, @(9)Auburn-13, (1)Alabama-15, @(7)Missouri-3, @(3)Baylor-3, (11)Mississippi St.-6, @(7)Texas A&M-6, @(1)Alabama-3, @(4)Tennessee-18, (6)Kentucky-9, =(7)Texas A&M-6
- Other losses (2): @LSU-3, @Vanderbilt-13
Overview: Arkansas started strong with 11 wins in 12 games, beating 5-seed San Diego State in overtime but losing to 6-seed Creighton. The Razorbacks hit a rough patch corresponding with losing two players and dropped five out of six, but recovered to win 5 of 6 afterwards. They were 4-10 against tournament-bound SEC foes and played Baylor close on the road. They ended with another skid, losing 4 of 5, but played very well in the Auburn win and the 3-point Alabama road loss.
Five Razorbacks have averaged in double figures over the season, but one of them (Trevor Brazile) is injured and another (Nick Smith) missed a lot of the season but is back. Ricky Council IV leads the team at 15.9ppg. Council led with 18 points—making 11 of 12 free throws—in the 73-63 win over Illinois. Davonte Davis had 25 in the upset of 1-seed Kansas.
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Game Analysis: UConn's strengths are shooting well, from both 2 and 3, and rebounding well, particlulary on the offensive glass where they are #2 in the nation. They defend both the 2 and 3 well on defense. Their all-around game is pretty solid.
Arkansas shoots the 2 well but not the three, so they don't shoot the three very often compared to other teams. They're much better on defense where they block shots, get a lot of steals, and defend shoots very well—but they also foul a lot. In fact both teams foul a lot on defense which could lead to a lot of free throws and UConn makes 76% to the Razorbacks' <70%. Arkansas could have success stealing the ball while UConn should get quite a few rebounds on offense.
UConn beat St. Mary's by 15 despite the Gaels (the #2 defensive rebounding team) limiting the Huskies to 4 offensive rebounds. Arkansas is only #138 in defensive rebounding.
Vegas Line:
UConn by 3 1/2
Power rating: spread
UConn by 5.3
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
UConn: 65.6%
Arkansas: 34.4%
Historically 4-seeds haven't played 8-seeds very often, just 10 times since 1985, and the 8-seed has won 6 times. So these odds would be reverse by that small sample. But is there something to it? Does upsetting a 1-seed give the 8-seed a boost that carries over to the next game? Last year 8-seed North Carolina beat 1-seed Baylor, then beat 4-seed UCLA 73-66. I think it's plausible that the 8-seed gets a boost but not to the point where they should be favored; it's probably a 50/50 game by the time both teams get to the Sweet Sixteen.
Bottom line: Arkansas beat a 1-seed but UConn's win over St. Mary's was a lot more impressive. Arkansas is a tough 8-seed but UConn is an even tougher 4-seed. I think this game will help bring the historical stats back toward par.
Final prediction: UConn 80, Arkansas 69
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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