All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Tennessee Volunteers
Seed: 4
Record: 25-10
Conference: SEC
vs.
Florida Atlantic Owls
Seed: 9
Record: 33-3
Conference: C-USA
Date: Thursday, March 23
Time: 9:00 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: New York, NY
Channel: TBS
A rare 4-seed vs. 9-seed matchup.
Tennessee Florida Atlantic
Power Ratings
Strength: #5 Strength: #29
Median: #4 Median: #30
Markov: #12 Markov: #24
Pomeroy: #6 Pomeroy: #22
Offense: #60 Offense: #30
Defense: #1 Defense: #36
BPI: #3 BPI: #34
LRMC: #10 LRMC: #16
Other Measures:
SOS: #44 SOS: #117
Tempo (Offense): #240 Tempo (Offense): #82
Consistency: #347 Consistency: #120
Str + Reliability: #13 Str + Reliability: #23
Str + Potential: #2 Str + Potential: #46
2nd half season: #9 2nd half season: #40
NCAA Tournament: #12 NCAA Tournament: #16
Injury Mod Rank: #15 Injury Mod Rank: #27
MegaScreen MegaScreen
Winner: #5 Winner: NA
Final Four: #4 Final Four: #10
By the power ratings Tennessee could be a 2-seed, if not a 1. The Volunteers are now #3 in BPI, #5 in Strength, and #6 in Pomeroy where they've retaken the #1 defensive spot. Their offense still lags at #60 and in the Markov-chain oriented models (Markov and LRMC) they are ranked in the low double-digits. Florida Atlantic is a respectable 9-seed but their numbers are all worse than Tennessee's, though they are really close in the LRMC. On offense they Owls are better than the Volunteers but they aren't close on defense.
Florida Atlantic has played a decent schedule but not a tough one like Major conference teams have; it's one reason they're screened out of the Winner box on the MegaScreen. They're consistent though, which is how a team gets 33 wins with less than a handful of upset losses. Tennessee isn't consistent at all, which is how a team ranked #5 in Strength ends up with 10 losses (that, plus playing a tough schedule).
Florida Atlantic faded a bit in the 2nd half of the season but turned it up again before the tournament. But so far in the tournament they are #16, dead last in performance of the remaining teams. Tennessee isn't much better at #12, and indeed their Strength since losing Zakai Zeigler is just #15—still ahead of FAU but not elite level. They aren't playing like the team that the MegaScreen makes a Final Four favorite—though perhaps the Duke game says otherwise.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (11): =(10)USC+OT, =(1)Kansas+14, =(8)Maryland+3, (11)Mississippi St.+34, @(11)Mississippi St.+11, (2)Texas+11, (9)Auburn+3, (1)Alabama+9, (8)Arkansas+18, =(13)Louisiana+3, =(5)Duke+13
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (3): (2)Texas+11, (1)Alabama+9, (8)Arkansas+18
- Losses to tournament teams (7): @(2)Arizona-5, (6)Kentucky-7, (7)Missouri-1, @(6)Kentucky-12, @(7)Texas A&M-5, @(9)Auburn-9, =(7)Missouri-8
- Other losses (3): Colorado-12, @Florida-13, @Vanderbilt-1
Overview: Tennessee was one of the very best teams all season but ran into turbulence in February and may have taken a fatal blow in March. Despite losing basically at home to Colorado, 78-66, the Vols beat 10-seed USC and 1-seed Kansas to start 14-2 (they also lost to 2-seed Arizona on the road in that stretch). The home loss to then-struggling Kentucky was another aberration, and soon they were 18-3, fresh off a win over 2-seed Texas in the SEC/Big Twelve Challenge, and ranked #2 in the AP poll. From there the Vols lost to Florida and Vanderbilt, and Missouri at home, and were never the same. Occasional great wins—like beating 1-seed Alabama—were followed by losses, reflecting their status as one of the country's most inconsistent teams. Defensively they were always sound, even fantastic, but on offense they often struggled.
Santiago Vescovi leads the team with 12.9 points per game but in 2nd place is point guard Zakai Zeigler with 10.7 points, 5.4 assists, and 2.0 steals per game. He will miss the tournament however as he recovers from a torn ACL. Our Injury Correction rankings show the Vols aren't nearly as good without him, and the Vols first round game did nothing to assuage those worries as they beat Louisiana 58-55 after blowing an 18 point lead. Tyreke Key led with 12 points. The Duke win was one of Tennessee's best games in the 2023 calendar year, as they beat up the Blue Devils 65-52 behind Olivier Nkamhoua's 27 points.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (3): (16)Northern Kentucky+15, =(8)Memphis+1, =(16)Fairleigh Dickinson+8
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (0): None
- Other losses (3): @Mississippi-13, @UAB-9, @Middle Tennessee-4
Overview: FAU lost early and didn't lose for a long time after that. The road loss to Ole Miss was their last for 20 games. Admittedly there weren't many challenges along the way: Florida, South Alabama, North Texas, and UAB were their toughest tests, and they did get a tournament field win over 16-seed Northern Kentucky. But they won by big margins typically, keeping their power ratings high and tipping off observers that they were a team to keep track of. They lost on the road to UAB and Middle Tennessee and after the latter seemed to kick into high gear. Maybe they were unsure of getting an at-large bid and wanted some certainty? In any case their last 7 games are next-level, and their 78-56 neutral court win in the rubber match with UAB is just as strong as Memphis' final win over Houston.
Florida Atlantic spreads out the scoring, with leader Johnell Davis averaging 13.5 per game and 7 others topping 5.0 per game. They play a very short lineup with the exception of 7-1 center Vlad Goldin. Giancarlo Rosado made all six of his field goal attempts in leading the Owls with 15 points in the win over Memphis. Davis caught fire against Fairleigh Dickinson for 29 points as they held off the 16-seed 78-70.
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Game Analysis: The problem for FAU is to score on Tennessee's suffocating defense, while the Volunteers have to keep their offense from sucking.
Tennessee just played one of their best games in the last 2 months while FAU just played their one of their worst over the same time period. That would seem to give the Volunteers and advantage, but there are many ways to look at both teams' performances.
FAU is a team that wins games: 33 so far this year. In both tournament games so far the Owls have done what they need to do to win. Nothing more, just winning. It's resulted in the worst performance out of 16 teams left, but that's grading Memphis and FDU at their regular-season quality. Memphis was playing their best basketball right before the tournament (remember the Houston win?) and no sane person would say the FDU team that FAU faced was the same team from December or February. So Florida Atlantic's tournament performance so far is being underrated.
Tennessee is up and down. Last game they were up, but who is to say if they will be this game or not? Their inconsistency is pretty consistent. They had a great game against Duke, but will they be psyched to do the same against Florida Atlantic? Probably not. Notice that the Vols did terribly against Louisiana, another no-cachet name, just prior to the Duke win. And recall in February when Tennessee lost to Vanderbilt and Missouri, then thrashed Alabama 68-59, then lost to Kentucky and Texas A&M? The Alabama game was the important one in that stretch. None of the other games were enough to get them psyched, not even Kentucky who was having a down year. Motivated Tennessee can still put on a show, even without Zakai Zeigler, but not consistently.
And that brings us to Zeigler, whose absence is the great equalizer. Tennessee's Strength when he plays is #4; without him they're #15, and that includes two really good games (Arkansas and Duke). It also includes three really bad games. Basically Tennessee is even more up and down now without Zeigler than they were before, still capable of beating great teams or losing badly.
FAU is one of the shortest teams in the country (FDU, whom they just beat, was even shorter). Tennessee isn't the tallest team either but they have a 6-11 starter and a 7-1 backup. FAU does have a 7-1 reserve but Tennessee's guards and forwards are 2-4 inches taller at each position.
Vegas Line:
Tennessee by 5 1/2
Power rating: spread
Tennessee by 6.6
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Tennessee: 65.1%
Florida Atl: 34.9%
Tennessee gets the nod from the power rating and the sportsbooks, with about a 2/3 chance to win. 4-seeds vs. 9-seeds is a very rare thing, happening only three times in the 64+ team era. The 4-seed has won twice, so the Vols 2/3 chance is about on par with history.
Bottom line: Tennessee has a lot of advantages in this game (defense, height), I just don't think they will be motivated, while Florida Atlantic will be highly motivated. Either FAU will be outclassed and blown away, or they'll do what they need to do to win, as usual.
Final prediction: Florida Atlantic 66, Tennessee 63
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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