All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Kansas State Wildcats
Seed: 3
Record: 25-9
Conference: Big Twelve
vs.
Michigan State Spartans
Seed: 7
Record: 21-12
Conference: Big Ten
Date: Thursday, March 23
Time: 6:30 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: New York, NY
Channel: TBS
The team that wins this may be in the driver's seat to the Final Four as both top seeds are gone in the East.
Kansas State Michigan State
Power Ratings
Strength: #20 Strength: #30
Median: #23 Median: #25
Markov: #23 Markov: #28
Pomeroy: #21 Pomeroy: #25
Offense: #47 Offense: #38
Defense: #17 Defense: #31
BPI: #31 BPI: #37
LRMC: #30 LRMC: #45
Other Measures:
SOS: #14 SOS: #2
Tempo (Offense): #44 Tempo (Offense): #274
Consistency: #95 Consistency: #94
Str + Reliability: #19 Str + Reliability: #22
Str + Potential: #42 Str + Potential: #50
2nd half season: #23 2nd half season: #24
NCAA Tournament: #13 NCAA Tournament: #2
Injury Mod Rank: #22 Injury Mod Rank: #16
MegaScreen MegaScreen
Winner: NA Winner: NA
Final Four: #11 Final Four: #12
We've got a pretty close contest here. Updated numbers show Michigan State within 10 places in Strength, 4 spots in Pomeroy, and six spots in BPI. The LRMC doesn't update after Selection Sunday. Pomeroy's numbers show Michigan State plays better on offense than the Wildcats but a bit weaker defense; on both sides of the court the team playing defense will have the edge.
The Wildcats like a pretty fast tempo while the Spartans slow it down a bit. Both teams are pretty consistent, too, so the odds of an upset are small, but with teams this close in quality an upset is within normal boundaries anyway, regardless of how consistent the teams are. The other interesting figures are the play over the NCAA tournament (last 2 games) where the Spartans are #2, but that's obviously a small sample. They have, however, played at a quite strong level (#16) when they have their full lineup including Malik Hall available. From this number they look stronger right now than the Wildcats.
The MegaScreen didn't give either team a chance of winning it all but both are Final Four considerations, though not very high as of Selection Sunday. Obviously their odds have improved a lot due to external factors like the #1 and #2 seeds being gone from their Region. But only one can advance through this window.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (10): =(11)Nevada+OT, (9)West Virginia+OT, @(2)Texas+13, @(3)Baylor+OT, (1)Kansas+OT, (6)TCU+21, (6)Iowa St.+6, (3)Baylor+10, =(14)Montana St.+12, =(6)Kentucky+6
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): @(2)Texas+13
- Losses to tournament teams (6): @(6)TCU-14, @(6)Iowa St.-4, @(1)Kansas-12, (2)Texas-3, @(9)West Virginia-8, =(6)TCU-13
- Other losses (3): @Butler-12, @Texas Tech-8, @Oklahoma-14
Overview: Kansas State wasn't taken seriously early on. They needed overtime to beat 11-seed Nevada and lost to Butler, and their pre-Big Twelve schedule was pretty easy so going 11-1 didn't impress. They beat 9-seed West Virginia in overtime at home but it was the road win at Texas, 116-103, that caught people's attention, and wins over 3-seed Baylor and 1-seed Kansas (both in overtime) didn't hurt.
The 'Cats were 17-2 and hit some turbulence and lost 5 of 7, beating only Florida and 6-seed TCU in that span. But two of the losses were to Kansas and Texas, and K-State righted the ship with a 4-game win streak, adding wins over 6-seed Iowa State and another over Baylor while making quick work of both dangerous Oklahoma teams. They did disappoint a bit at the end, falling to West Virginia and then TCU 80-67 in one of their worst performances, but nothing comes easy in the Big Twelve.
Kansas State is led by forward Keontae Johnson with 17.7 points and 7.0 rebounds per game, while 5-8 point guard Markquise Nowell adds 16.8 points and 7.6 assists. Overall K-State is a very short team, #311 in the country in average height. Johnson had 18 and Nowell 17 in the win over Montana State. In the 75-69 win over Kentucky Nowell led with 27 and the Wildcats overcame a 19-4 deficit in offensive rebounds.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): =(6)Kentucky+OT, @(10)Penn St.+9, (8)Iowa+2, (8)Maryland+5, (4)Indiana+15, =(10)USC+10, =(2)Marquette+9
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (8): =(3)Gonzaga-1, =(1)Alabama-11, (7)Northwestern-7, @(9)Illinois-9, (1)Purdue-1, @(4)Indiana-13, @(1)Purdue-16, @(8)Iowa-OT
- Other losses (4): @Notre Dame-18, @Rutgers-6, @Michigan-12, =Ohio St.-10
Overview: Michigan State had rough patches and success alternately this year. They started 5-4 but with the nation's #3 SOS it was a landmine with losses to 3-seed Gonzaga (by one point) and 1-seed Alabama (in Portland) and a win over 6-seed Kentucky (in double overtime). The really bad loss was to Notre Dame, 70-52. The Spartans went on a 7-game win streak over mostly mediocre competition, then lost 5 of 7 over mostly tough opponents (including 1-seed Purdue twice); their level of play barely budged during this time. Down the stretch they won 5 of 8, beating Ohio State twice before losing to the Buckeyes in the Big Ten tournament.
Michigan State boast a trio of double digit scorers: Tyson Walker leads with 14.6ppg while Joey Hauser leads in rebounding with 6.9 and AJ Hoggard dishes out 6.0 assists per game. Malik Hall is a key reserve who missed 8 games early and 3 games in the middle of the Big Ten season but he's back, and in the games he's played Michigan State is a lot better. Hauser led with 17 points and 8 rebounds in the 72-62 win over USC. The Spartans led most of the way and held on to beat 2-seed Marquette 69-60 behind Walker's 23 points.
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Game Analysis: Both teams ended their last wins with a strong run at the end that turned a super-close game into a comfortable win. K-State has played well so far but Michigan State has been at their best. Two games doesn't mean everything but it can indicate that a team has "come alive" for the tournament, and Michigan State does that very, very often under Tom Izzo. Meanwhile Jerome Tang is coaching his very first college basketball season at Kansas State. He's done a remarkable job this year but the NCAA tournament's history shows that coaching experience wins games and tournaments.
Kansas State gave up an incredible 19 offensive rebounds to Kentucky their last game, but they shouldn't have to worry about that against the Spartans who aren't a great offensive rebounding team. In fact these teams match up pretty well in terms of strength vs. strength and weakness vs. weakness. Michigan State shoots the 3 great and K-State defends it very well; K-State is vulnerable to steals but Michigan State rarely gets any; K-State's 2-point shooting is relatively as good a MSU's defense there; both teams are good from the foul line; K-State gets to the foul line a lot while Michigan State doesn't, but K-State sends teams there while MSU doesn't.
As mentioned before both defenses have the slight advantage over each team on offense, so its up to the teams to figure out a game plan on offense.
Vegas Line:
Michigan St by 2
Power rating: spread
Kansas St by 1.0
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Kansas St: 51.7%
Michigan St: 49.3%
Interesting, a discrepancy between the Strength power rating and Vegas, only about the 2nd or 3rd the whole tournament. It's because of two things, perhaps: Michigan State has looked really good so far, they are at full strength, and also there's just the fact that Tom Izzo wins games in the NCAA tournament.
Bottom line: Every 3-5 years like clockwork the Spartans go to the Final Four. With the top two seeds out the path looks pretty clear now. I didn't even have the Spartans getting here, but I'm starting to think a Final Four run is probably going to happen.
Final prediction: Michigan State 69, Kansas State 63
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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