All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
UCLA Bruins
Seed: 2
Record: 31-5
Conference: Pac-12
vs.
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Seed: 3
Record: 30-5
Conference: West Coast
Date: Thursday, March 23
Time: 9:40 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Channel: CBS
This is a national title-level game, but it's just for a spot in the Elite Eight.
UCLA Gonzaga
Power Ratings
Strength: #3 Strength: #6
Median: #5 Median: #7
Markov: #3 Markov: #8
Pomeroy: #3 Pomeroy: #7
Offense: #21 Offense: #1
Defense: #2 Defense: #76
BPI: #4 BPI: #8
LRMC: #2 LRMC: #8
Other Measures:
SOS: #32 SOS: #65
Tempo (Offense): #212 Tempo (Offense): #33
Consistency: #84 Consistency: #286
Str + Reliability: #1 Str + Reliability: #6
Str + Potential: #7 Str + Potential: #4
2nd half season: #2 2nd half season: #3
NCAA Tournament: #3 NCAA Tournament: #14
Injury Mod Rank: #3 Injury Mod Rank: #5
MegaScreen MegaScreen
Winner: #2 Winner: NA
Final Four: #2 Final Four: #5
Both these teams are as strong as a 1-seed, or very close. UCLA is in the top 4 in all four power ratings, and Gonzaga is top 8, making this at least a 1-seed vs. 2-seed level game. The game will feature the nation's #1 offense vs. the #2 defense when Gonzaga has the ball. The other end of the court boasts UCLA's top 25 offense and Gonzaga's rather poor defense.
There's a tempo difference as Gonzaga like to play fast, and a consistency difference as Gonzaga is a bit up and down while UCLA is very steady for a high-ranked team. Both have played great since early January but for the 2-game tournament sample UCLA is #3 while Gonzaga is #14 out of 16. UCLA's injury modification doesn't show much difference between their regular play—they're still #3 over the six-game sample without Jaylen Clark.
The MegaScreen considers UCLA a top candidate to win it all, but screens out the Zags due to their low defensive efficiency ranking. They're still a prime candidate for the Final Four—but two of the top 5 candidates are already meeting in the Sweet Sixteen!
- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): @(8)Maryland+27, =(6)Kentucky+10, (10)USC+2, @(11)Arizona St.+12, (11)Arizona St.+18, (2)Arizona+9, =(15)UNC Asheville+33, =(7)Northwestern+5
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =(9)Illinois-9, =(3)Baylor-5, @(2)Arizona-6, @(10)USC-13, =(2)Arizona-2
- Other losses (0): None
Overview: UCLA suffered early losses to 9-seed Illinois and 3-seed Baylor, both in the Continental Tire Main Event in Las Vegas. They won 14 straight after that, beating 8-seed Maryland 87-60 on the road and 6-seed Kentucky along the way. Then they dropped two more games, to 2-seed Arizona and 10-seed USC, before running off another 12 straight. They dropped the last game to 2-seed Arizona on a missed 3-pointer. The Bruins lost no home games this year.
Veterans Jaime Jacquez (17.3 ppg, 8.1 rebounds) and Tyger Campbell (13.6 points, 4.7 assists) have been the team leaders for the last four years and provide just about the best complementary play in college basketball today. Third-leading scorer Jaylen Clark was lost for the year a few games ago; his absence is the only question mark for this team's NCAA tournament run. So far they're doing ok, dispatching UNC Asheville with east behind 17 points from both Jacquez and Amari Bailey. Jacquez had 24 points and 12 rebounds in the 68-63 win over Northwestern.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): =(7)Michigan St.+1, (6)Kentucky+16, =(3)Xavier+4, (13)Kent St.+7, @(1)Alabama+10, (5)Saint Mary's+9, =(5)Saint Mary's+26, =(14)Grand Canyon+12, =(6)TCU+3
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (3): =(7)Michigan St.+1, =(3)Xavier+4, @(1)Alabama+10
- Losses to tournament teams (4): @(2)Texas-19, =(1)Purdue-18, =(3)Baylor-1, @(5)Saint Mary's-OT
- Other losses (1): Loyola Marymount-1
Overview: Gonzaga is always one of the teams to watch, especially in the pre-conference season when they mix it up with some of the nation's best. This year the Zags: beat 7-seed Michigan by one point aboard an aircraft carrier; fell to 2-seed Texas 93-74; and beat 6-seed Kentucky 88-72. And that was just in the first four games! In another 3-game stretch the Bulldogs lost to Purdue, 84-66, beat 3-seed Xavier 88-84 (both in one of the Portland Phil Knight tournaments), and fell to Baylor by a point playing in South Dakota for some reason. Their last big non-conference challenge was overall 1-seed Alabama, whom they beat 100-90 in Birmingham, making them 1-1 against 1-seeds this season.
In the WCC Gonzaga coasted as usual waiting for the big matchup with 5-seed Saint Mary's but were tripped up by Loyola Marymount on the way, breaking their 76-game home win streak (they won the rematch on the road 108-65). They lost in overtime to the Gaels on the road, beat them at home 77-68, then thrashed them 77-51 in their West Coast Conference tournament final.
Senior Drew Timme, who seemingly has been around forever, is the team's leader. He averages 20.9 points and 7.3 rebounds per game. Three other Zags average in double figures including Julian Strawther who led against Grand Canyon with 28. Timme had 28 in the 84-81 win over TCU that got the Zags to the Sweet Sixteen for the 8th straight time.
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Game Analysis: UCLA's injuries are adding up and that could be a big problem. But so far it hasn't really been. Starter David Singleton was the latest, but he's been cleared to play already. Of course Jaylen Clark is gone and Adem Bona missed two games including the Arizona loss and the first round win over UNC Asheville.
When Gonzaga has the ball it's definitely championship-caliber basketball, the #1 offense vs. the #2 defensive play in the nation. The Bruins do just about everything well on defense but Gonzaga does everything a bit better on offense, including shooting and rebounding. UCLA did have a slightly harder schedule so that narrows the gap even further.
So the key might be UCLA's play on offense, and whether Gonzaga's challenged defense can rise to the occasion. There aren't many areas where the defense does things well enough—not blocks, steals, or defending shots—where UCLA has a weakness. Gonzaga rebounds well on defense but UCLA has better offensive rebounding. The Bruins don't shoot all that well so the Zags might just have to hope they miss their shots. Or count on outscoring them on the other end of the floor.
Gonzaga has reached the Sweet Sixteen eight years in a row, and Drew Timme colorfully gave a sigh of relief that they didn't blow the streak this year. Maybe compared to the last few years the Zags have set their sights lower? Is this a good enough run for the team? Gonzaga has been a 1-seed the last two tournaments, maybe their expectations are reduced, but this doesn't sound like a team expecting to make the Elite Eight. Of course, it's also very possible that Motivated Gonzaga shows up and has one of their great outlier performances they seem to have every 5 or 10 games.
Vegas Line:
UCLA by 2
Power rating: spread
UCLA by 1.6
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
UCLA: 57.5%
Gonzaga: 42.5%
The 2- vs. 3-seed is very common, of course, and 2-seeds normally win 62%, so Gonzaga is clearly a tougher than normal 3-seed as we've said.
Bottom line: Both these teams should be in the Elite Eight but only one can make it and I'm sticking with UCLA.
Final prediction: UCLA 79, Gonzaga 71
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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