All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Texas Longhorns
Seed: 2
Record: 28-8
Conference: Big Twelve
vs.
Xavier Musketeers
Seed: 3
Record: 27-9
Conference: Big East
Date: Friday, March 24
Time: 9:45 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Kansas City, MO
Channel: CBS
In a tournament full of top teams getting upset, the 2-seed and 3-seed made it through in the Midwest.
Texas Xavier
Power Ratings
Strength: #7 Strength: #17
Median: #8 Median: #18
Markov: #6 Markov: #11
Pomeroy: #5 Pomeroy: #15
Offense: #15 Offense: #7
Defense: #10 Defense: #63
BPI: #5 BPI: #21
LRMC: #6 LRMC: #12
Other Measures:
SOS: #8 SOS: #22
Tempo (Offense): #60 Tempo (Offense): #42
Consistency: #246 Consistency: #57
Str + Reliability: #4 Str + Reliability: #8
Str + Potential: #6 Str + Potential: #40
2nd half season: #4 2nd half season: #20
NCAA Tournament: #11 NCAA Tournament: #15
Injury Mod Rank: #6 Injury Mod Rank: #17
MegaScreen MegaScreen
Winner: #4 Winner: NA
Final Four: #7 Final Four: #8
Texas is a solid 2-seed, ranking #5 in Pomeroy and the BPI, and both offense and defense in the top 15 which is very enviable. Xavier isn't a weak 3-seed really but isn't nearly as impressive in the power ratings, ranging from a pre-tourney #12 in LRMC (which is mirrored in SportsRatings' Markov ranking of #11), while the BPI has the Musketeers at just #21. Their offense is better than Texas at #7 but on defense their play is a liability at #63.
Both teams have played a very challenging schedule, and both run a pretty fast offense so the tempo of the game should be swift. While Xavier for the season is very steady and true, Texas is a bit unpredictable though not on the really wild side. Looking at their charts below those characterizations might have reversed over the last several weeks it seems. In any case, both teams did well enough in the 2nd half of the season and, among the remaining field of 16, underperformed their peers ranking at #11 and #15 for their 2-game stints. We'll take a look and see if that appears to be significant or just a small sample (which it is, for sure).
Texas shows up at #4 in the MegaScreen's list of possible winners but at #4, and a Final Four shortlist but at #7, suggesting neither is expected but both are possible. Xavier is right behind them on the Final Four list but is screened out of the Winner's column probably due to their poor defensive efficiency.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (14): (3)Gonzaga+19, (6)Creighton+5, (13)Louisiana+28, (6)TCU+4, @(9)West Virginia+8, (3)Baylor+5, @(3)Kansas St.+3, (9)West Virginia+34, (6)Iowa St.+18, (1)Kansas+16, =(6)TCU+6, =(1)Kansas+20, =(15)Colgate+20, =(10)Penn St.+5
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (3): (3)Gonzaga+19, (6)Creighton+5, @(3)Kansas St.+3
- Losses to tournament teams (7): =(9)Illinois-OT, (3)Kansas St.-13, @(6)Iowa St.-11, @(4)Tennessee-11, @(1)Kansas-8, @(3)Baylor-9, @(6)TCU-2
- Other losses (1): @Texas Tech-7
Overview: Texas showed early they would be a force to be reckoned with, beating 3-seed Gonzaga 93-74 and early AP poll darling 6-seed Creighton as well. They lost to 9-seed Illinois in overtime however, just before coach Chris Beard was dismissed. Texas played their worst game that very day, an overtime home win over Rice (game 9). Rodney Terry coached the team from that moment forward and by and large they didn't miss a beat, battling through the tough-as-nails Big Twelve. They split with 3-seed Baylor and 3-seed Kansas State as well as 1-seed Kansas before beating the Jayhawks in the rubber match to finish the season strong.
Point guard Marcus Carr leads four starters in double figures with 15.9ppg; he also leads in assists and steals. In the win over Colgate Sir'Jabari Rice was the leader with 23 points. Dylan Disu made 14 of 20 shots for 28 points as the Longhorns held on to top Penn State, 71-66.
**************************************************************
- Wins vs. tournament teams (10): (9)West Virginia+10, (4)Connecticut+10, (6)Creighton+3, (2)Marquette+4, @(4)Connecticut+3, (11)Providence+OT, @(11)Providence+5, =(6)Creighton+22, =(14)Kennesaw St.+5, =(11)Pittsburgh+11
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (4): (4)Connecticut+10, (6)Creighton+3, @(4)Connecticut+3, =(6)Creighton+22
- Losses to tournament teams (6): (4)Indiana-2, =(5)Duke-7, =(3)Gonzaga-4, @(6)Creighton-17, @(2)Marquette-1, =(2)Marquette-14
- Other losses (3): @DePaul-1, @Butler-2, Villanova-1
Overview: Xavier has a good consistency rating but it seems to be mostly due to the first half of the season when they actually were very consistent. Lately they've been a bit all over the place, upside and downside. Early losses to 4-seed Indiana, 5-seed Duke, and 3-seed Gonzaga were offset by wins over 9-seed West Virginia, 4-seed UConn, 6-seed Creighton, and 2-seed Marquette as part of an 11-game win streak through mid-January. Losses to DePaul and Butler harmed their résumé but they beat UConn and Creighton again, as well as 11-seed Providence twice in going 15-5 in Big East play with and finishing 2nd to Marquette in the conference tournament.
Point guard Souley Boum leads the team with 16.5 ppg and 4.4 assists. The Musketeers are a tall team with tall guards and 7-0 center Jack Nunge. 2nd leading scorer Zack Freemantle was lost in late January, roughly corresponding to the time when Xavier started to get less consistent—but kept playing just as well on average. It may mean a deeper run is less likely, though. The Musketeers were down 13 with 10 minutes to play and rallied for a 72-67 win with Jerome Hunter scoring 24 points. Six Musketeers scored in double figures against Pitt in the 84-73 win.
**************************************************************
Game Analysis: Neither Texas nor Xavier has played particularly well in getting to the Sweet Sixteen. Texas beat Colgate by 20 and Penn State by just 5, while Xavier beat 14-seed Kennesaw State by just 5 and topped Pitt by 11. The weakest of these games is clearly Xavier's first one, where they trailed by 13 with 10 minutes to go. After leading most of the game Texas fell behind against Penn State with 5 minutes to go before a strong finish kept them in front for good.
It's hard to say which team should be more concerned. Xavier's first game was awful and in the 2nd game they let a huge lead bleed down but they won both. Texas didn't blow Colgate out but the never let them in the game, and they responded immediately when Penn State really threatened. Not good action on either team's part but they stepped up when they had to. They will probably both be at their best this round, but it doesn't bode well for the winner in the next round.
When Xavier's on offense it's a top ten vs. ten ten game. The Musketeers are #3 in the nation in 3-point percentage but shockingly they are just #320 in frequency of 3-point shot selection. They're good at 2s too but in this day and age it seems like shooting more 3s would be a good idea. In any case, it works for them. Texas has good defensive coverage and gets a lot of blocks and steals, too, something that could affect Xavier on offense.
Texas should be able to exploit Xavier's general defensive weakness but though they have a slight edge in most stat areas (except rebounding) nothing really stands out as a total mismatch. Xavier doesn't defend the 3 well but that's not Texas' strength. Xavier is much better defending the 2, and that's what Texas is best shooting.
With the teams evenly matched when Xavier has the ball and Texas with a small edge when they have it, having a larger number of possessions is to the Longhorns' advantage, so that their edge emerges more reliably than in a low-possession game. In this case both teams play fast offense which will create a large number of possessions.
Vegas Line:
Texas by 4
Power rating: spread
Texas by 4.4
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Texas: 63.3%
Xavier: 36.7%
The Vegas line and Strength power rating are nose-to-nose on the spread, and Texas' 63% chance to win is right on the historical odds for a 2-seed to beat a 3-seed, which is about 62%. In other words, the typical situation: the 2-seed is a clear but slim favorite, and an upset by the 3-seed is not a huge deal.
Bottom line: Texas is just a little better than Xavier and in a fast tempo game with a lot of possessions, that difference should make itself known over time.
Final prediction: Texas 79, Xavier 72
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
Comments