All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Houston Cougars
Seed: 1
Record: 33-3
Conference: American
vs.
Miami Hurricanes
Seed: 5
Record: 27-7
Conference: ACC
Date: Friday, March 24
Time: 7:15 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Kansas City, MO
Channel: CBS
Fresh from blow-out wins, Houston and Miami face off.
Houston Miami
Power Ratings
Strength: #2 Strength: #42
Median: #1 Median: #31
Markov: #1 Markov: #22
Pomeroy: #1 Pomeroy: #32
Offense: #9 Offense: #11
Defense: #4 Defense: #108
BPI: #1 BPI: #36
LRMC: #1 LRMC: #41
Other Measures:
SOS: #86 SOS: #77
Tempo (Offense): #324 Tempo (Offense): #113
Consistency: #198 Consistency: #99
Str + Reliability: #2 Str + Reliability: #26
Str + Potential: #3 Str + Potential: #59
2nd half season: #5 2nd half season: #29
NCAA Tournament: #10 NCAA Tournament: #6
Injury Mod Rank: #1 Injury Mod Rank: #43
MegaScreen MegaScreen
Winner: #1 Winner: NA
Final Four: #1 Final Four: NA
By the numbers this one isn't even close. Houston is #1 on all the power ratings except Strength where they're #2, and they're back to #1 when Marcus Sasser is 100% healthy which now seems to be the case. Both their offense and defense are in the top 10. Miami is anywhere from the low 30s (Pomeroy) to low 40s (Strength, LRMC) and while they essentially play top 10 offense, their defense isn't in the top 100.
The one number that gives Miami the edge is performance in the NCAA tournament so far, where Miami is #6 out of the remaining 16 and Houston is just #10. That isn't due to Houston's last game vs. Auburn—that game and Miami's win over Indiana rank similarly—but Houston's first game against Northern Kentucky where they won by just 11 points.
Despite Miami being in a Major conference the teams have played similarly tough schedules, as the ACC has some major cupcakes this year and Miami's pre-conference slate lacked power hitters. Not many people realize how slow Houston's offense is on average, but it's one of the slowest while Miami is moderate. Miami is also quite consistent, while Houston is average in that department. Both teams had injury worries going into the tournament—Marcus Sasser for Houston, and Norchad Omier for Miami—but neither missed a game and both seem fully healthy now.
The MegaScreen (after a tweak to make it less strenous) deemed Houston the most likely Final Four team and the most likely winner. Meanwhile Miami was screened out of Final Four consideration due to their weak defense, which ranked #133 in Pomeroy upon the start of the first round. It's up to #108 now but it's the starting number that matters, and they'd set a new low (or high) if they made it.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): (12)Oral Roberts+38, (16)Texas Southern+35, (13)Kent St.+5, (5)Saint Mary's+5, @(4)Virginia+8, (8)Memphis+8, @(8)Memphis+2, =(16)Northern Kentucky+11, =(9)Auburn+17
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (2): (1)Alabama-6, =(8)Memphis-10
- Other losses (1): Temple-1
Overview: Houston's chart is a tall wall of blue pierced by the occasional poor red game. The highlights: beating 12-seed Oral Roberts 83-45 (game 3); beating 13-seed Kent State just 49-44 (game 6); beating almost-NCAA team Norfolk State 100-52 (game 7); beating 5-seed Saint Mary's 53-48 (game 8); beating 4-seed Virginia 69-61 on the road (game 12). The losses were to 1-seed Alabama at home (after leading most of the game), Temple at home, and Memphis on a neutral court. They also beat the Tigers twice in the last 8 games. It doesn't appear the final game was a trend, unless of course Marcus Sasser is out for good (and as of the Auburn game he appeared to be back to full health). What happened against Memphis was as much (or more) a product of Memphis' play as it was Houston's.
Sasser leads the team with 17.1 ppg. Third-leading scorer J'Wan Roberts (10.4) leads with 7.8 rebounds per game. Against Northern Kentucky Sasser played 14 minutes all in the first half, scoring 5 points, and was re-injured; Jarace Walker led with 16. Down 10 at the half to Auburn, Houston rallied furiously to blow out the Tigers in the 2nd half, 50-23, behind Tramon Mark's 26, with Sasser playing 31 minutes and scoring 22 points.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): =(11)Providence+10, (11)N.C. State+7, (4)Virginia+2, (5)Duke+22, (11)Pittsburgh+2, =(12)Drake+7, =(4)Indiana+16
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =(8)Maryland-18, @(11)N.C. State-OT, @(5)Duke-2, @(11)Pittsburgh-3, =(5)Duke-7
- Other losses (2): @Georgia Tech-6, Florida St.-1
Overview: Miami popped off to a 13-1 start, beating 11-seed Providence in the pre-conference season as well as UCF and Rutgers while losing only to 8-seed Maryland. They beat 11-seed NC State and 4-seed Virginia before a stunning loss to 15-18 Georgia Tech started a 4-4 skid. All those losses were on the road and the Canes marched on, winning 7 straight including an 81-59 win over 5-seed Duke (the only tournament team in that stretch). Then came the FSU debacle, their first home loss, to a 9-23 team, on a last-second heartbreaking shot by their hated rival. It seems to have done something to them.
The Hurricanes didn't play well at all at the very end. It wasn't just the Duke loss in the final game—where they lost Norchad Omier early in the contest—but all of their last four games: the home loss to Florida State, the 2-point home win over 11-seed Pitt, the 2-point win over Wake Forest—all were basically as bad as the Duke loss. Omier ended up playing during the NCAA tournament after all.
Miami's scoring leader is senior guard Isaiah Wong who leads the team with 16.2 points, 3.4 assists and 1.4 steals. Nigel Pack scored 21 in the win over Drake. The Hurricanes then blew away Indiana late, 85-69, behind Wong's 27 points.
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Game Analysis: Both teams turned in strong performances to get to the Sweet Sixteen. Miami's first round game was a lot better than Houston's first round game, but Marcus Sasser wasn't nearly 100% for their first game.
The game will be decided by A) Whether Miami's great offense or Houston's tough defense carries the day on that side of the court and B) How greatly Houston can exploit their edge on the other side of the court vs. Miami's porous defense.
The first point get into the more interesting matchup of the day. Miami's offense is top ten worthy but Houston's defense is even better. In a given game either might have an advantage. Miami shoots well and Houston defends very well (#2 in the nation). Miami's advantage here is offensive rebounding. Houston's edge here is blocked shots (#1 in the nation) and steals.
Clearly Houston has the edge when they have the ball, but how much? Miami's defense allows a high shooting percentage and the Cougars shoot pretty well—especially within the arc where Miami's defense is worst. They'll have an even bigger rebounding edge than Miami does on offense. About the only thing Miami does well on defense is to not foul, but Houston shouldn't need a lot of points from the free throw line.
Miami's defense has been better during the tournament, as their rise in Kenpom defensive efficiency show. But it's clear Houston has a big edge when on offense. The other side of the court seems nearly even, but given Houston's defensive lockdown in the 2nd half against Auburn, even Miami may have trouble scoring on the Cougars.
The Auburn game looked like a turning point for Houston. After a bad loss to Memphis without Marcus Sasser and a lackluster first round win where he barely played and was re-injured, the Cougars fell behind a scrappy Auburn team in hostile territory but rallied to play possibly their best half of basketball of the entire season, winning the half 50-23. Based on that they look like they're headed for the Final Four, if not a championship.
Vegas Line:
Houston by 7
Power rating: spread
Houston by 10.1
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Houston: 77.4%
Miami: 22.6%
The Sweet Sixteen is a great equalizer. Oddsmakers figure that if a team got here, it's just about as good as the other teams that get here. Hence the spread you'd see in a regular-season game is compressed a bit. A 5-seed making the Sweet Sixteen gets a bit of an upgrade, and they're just 7 point underdogs instead of the 10 point underdogs they'd be normally. Our power rating gives a 10 point spread and computes a 77% chance for the Cougars to win, close to the 80%+ odds that a 1-seed historically has over a 5-seed.
Bottom line: Houston looks like they're on their way to the Final Four, which will put them in Houston with a great shot at a national title. Barring an out of this world performance Miami's run is coming to an end.
Final prediction: Houston 83, Miami 63
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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