All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Alabama Crimson Tide
Seed: 1
Record: 31-5
Conference: SEC
vs.
San Diego State Aztec
Seed: 5
Record: 29-6
Conference: Mountain West
Date: Friday, March 24
Time: 6:30 pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Louisville, KY
Channel: TBS
A big step up in opponent for the Aztecs who beat a 12-seed and a 13-seed so far.
Alabama San Diego St
Power Ratings
Strength: #1 Strength: #22
Median: #2 Median: #17
Markov: #4 Markov: #16
Pomeroy: #2 Pomeroy: #14
Offense: #18 Offense: #69
Defense: #3 Defense: #5
BPI: #2 BPI: #24
LRMC: #3 LRMC: #17
Other Measures:
SOS: #9 SOS: #59
Tempo (Offense): #6 Tempo (Offense): #171
Consistency: #362 Consistency: #56
Str + Reliability: #15 Str + Reliability: #16
Str + Potential: #1 Str + Potential: #48
2nd half season: #1 2nd half season: #21
NCAA Tournament: #2 NCAA Tournament: #8
Injury Mod Rank: #2 Injury Mod Rank: #23
MegaScreen MegaScreen
Winner: #3 Winner: NA
Final Four: #3 Final Four: #9
Alabama is #1 in Strength, #2 in Pomeroy and BPI, and #3 in LRMC. San Diego State is in the top 25 in all rankings but not in the top ten. Their #5 defense is roughly as good as Alabama's #3 defense, but on offense they are only #69 while the Tide are firmly in the top 25. It's going to be a great defensive ball game.
San Diego State is from the mid-Major Mountain West which is stronger than the ACC this year top to bottom. Still, their SOS is far below Alabama's, partly because the Tide are in the strong SEC but also they played a killer non-conference slate. The Tide are among the speediest teams on offense, as well as one of the most inconsistent teams in performance game-to-game (the two may be related). SDSU has a moderate-speed offense and is very consistent in their performances. If there's an upset to be had, it's more likely to occur because Alabama had an off game than the Aztecs found a new gear.
In the tournament so far Alabama has been great; San Diego State has been average for the surviving 16. Alabama is one of the MegaScreen's favorites to make the Final Four and is one of the more likely to win it all. The Aztecs are screened out of the winner's spot—probably due to poor offensive efficiency—but are a long shot to make the Final Four.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (16): =(7)Michigan St.+11, @(1)Houston+6, (8)Memphis+3, @(11)Mississippi St.+11, (6)Kentucky+26, @(8)Arkansas+15, @(7)Missouri+21, (11)Mississippi St.+3, @(9)Auburn+8, (8)Arkansas+3, (9)Auburn+OT, =(11)Mississippi St.+23, =(7)Missouri+11, =(7)Texas A&M+19, =(16)Texas A&M Corpus Christi+21, =(8)Maryland+22
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (4): =(7)Michigan St.+11, @(1)Houston+6, @(8)Arkansas+15, (8)Arkansas+3
- Losses to tournament teams (4): =(4)Connecticut-15, (3)Gonzaga-10, @(4)Tennessee-9, @(7)Texas A&M-6
- Other losses (1): @Oklahoma-24
Overview: In the pre-SEC season the Tide beat 7-seed Michigan State, 1-seed Houston, and 8-seed Memphis while losing to 4-seed UConn and 3-seed Gonzaga. To be fair, this tally does could Mississippi State three times and they didn't make the final 64, so you could say reduce the total by three now.
The Tide went 16-2 in the SEC, 19-2 if you count the conference tournament, only losing to 4-seed Tennessee and 7-seed Texas A&M on the road. The other loss along the way? A 93-69 beatdown by Oklahoma, a Big Twelve team that didn't make the Big Dance. It shows that even the best teams are vulnerable to any team ranked in the top 50 or so. At the Sweet Sixteen, Alabama has played an amazing 6 of the remaining teams, winning 4 games and losing 3.
Freshman Brandon Miller is the team's star, averaging 19.6 points per game and 8.3 rebounds. Attention came his way due to a fatal shooting where it was revealed he had transported the murder weapon. Following this revelation the Tide played four very uncharacteristically poor games (games #28 to #31: they beat South Carolina in overtime, Arkansas by 3 at home, Auburn at home in overtime, and lost to Texas A&M 67-61) but Miller himself seemed unaffected, scoring a career high 41 in the first game. The guy has ice in his veins so don't expect the pressure of the NCAA tournament to get to him.
Of course just after saying that, Miller goes 0-5 for 0 points in the first game, citing a groin injury, as well as death threats. Nick Pringle led with 19 against TAMU-CC. Miller did score 19 in the 73-51 Maryland win but was 5 of 17 from the field while Jahvon Quinerly led with 22.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): (14)Kennesaw St.+34, (11)Nevada+9, (10)Utah St.+10, (10)Boise St.+20, @(10)Utah St.+2, =(10)Utah St.+5, =(12)Charleston+6, =(13)Furman+23
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =(2)Arizona-17, =(8)Arkansas-OT, =(5)Saint Mary's-7, @(11)Nevada-9, @(10)Boise St.-6
- Other losses (1): New Mexico-9
Overview: San Diego State had a challenging pre-conference season, beating BYU, Stanford, and Ohio State but losing to tournament teams Arizona (2-seed), Arkansas (8-seed, in overtime), and Saint Mary's (5). They went 5-2 against the qualifiers from the Mountain West in a year when that league was essentially the 7th Major conference. The Aztecs never won more than six games in a row so it's easy to overlook that they finished the season 20-3.
The Aztecs spread scoring out very evenly over 9 players; only guard Matt Bradley averages in double figures (12.9) and against Charleston he indeed was the only Aztec in double figures, leading with 17 points. There were even nine players who scored, so they couldn't have lived up to their billing any better. Against Furman Micah Parrish led with 16.
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Game Analysis: Alabama went through a 4-game spell where Brandon Miller was still playing well but the team wasn't (this was right after the gun transportate revelation). That slump seems to be over for the team and they're playing just as well as always...but Miller isn't. He's a total of 5 of 22 shooting during the first two games. It hasn't affected the team's play but how much longer can they win with Miller playing poorly?
It's going to be a bit rough for the Aztecs on offense. They shoot the ball pretty poorly, and Alabama defends exceptionally well—they're #1 per Pomeroy in effective field goal defense, great against both the 3 (#3) and the 2 (#1). SDSU might have a rebounding edge here so they can collect some of their many misses.
The Tide doesn't shoot all that great either, but they do shoot the two pretty well and San Diego State's defense against the 2 is sketchy. So as long as they don't get the ball stolen (they are vulnerable there and SDSU is good at that) or their shot blocked (ditto), they should have a good day inside the arc where they have a big height advantage in the forward and center positions. The problem is that they're used to shooting a whole lot of threes (#8 in frequency there) so they might have to change their mindset to win this game.
Alabama won their first two games by more than 20 points, which is great but 1-seeds often get an unexpected test along the way no matter how dominant they are early on. This would be a perfect time, because I think they won't take the Aztecs seriously. In the back of their minds they are playing a mid-Major school that just beat a 12 and a 13 to get to the Sweet Sixteen, and they expect another double-digit winning margin. Make no mistake, they might get it, but I think they might get a scare from a mid-Major that's more of a major program.
Luckily for them they're playing about six hours from home whereas San Diego State is playing over 30 hours from home. That's probably worth a point or two right there for fan support and easier travel.
Vegas Line:
Alabama by 7 1/2
Power rating: spread
Alabama by 8.2 / 11.6
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Alabama: 67.8% / 74.1%
San Diego St: 32.2% / 25.9%
Vegas has Alabama by 7 1/2, while Strength says 8 points...unless we add home court advantage which makes it over 11 points. I don't think full home court should be given but it should be more than 0 points since Alabama is playing pretty close and SDSU very, very far from home. The Tide end up with somewhere between 2/3 and 3/4 chance of winning; amazingly, 1-seeds normally win over 80% of these matchups (4-seeds win almost 30% against 1-seeds).
Bottom line: I think San Diego State is going to give Alabama a run for their money, but come up short.
Final prediction: Alabama 73, San Diego State 68
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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