All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Virginia Cavaliers
Seed: 4
Record: 25-7
Conference: ACC
vs.
Furman Paladins
Seed: 13
Record: 27-7
Conference: Southern
Date: Thursday, March 16
Time: 12:40 pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Orlando, FL
Channel: truTV
Tempos will clash when the Cavaliers take on the Paladins.
Virginia Furman
Power Ratings
Strength: #39 Strength: #91
Median: #42 Median: #88
Markov: #28 Markov: #96
Pomeroy: #34 Pomeroy: #89
Offense: #74 Offense: #33
Defense: #25 Defense: #183
BPI: #22 BPI: #92
LRMC: #32 LRMC: #80
Other Measures:
SOS: #73 SOS: #229
Tempo (Offense): #343 Tempo (Offense): #51
Consistency: #72 Consistency: #206
Str + Reliability: #24 Str + Reliability: #87
Str + Potential: #61 Str + Potential: #88
2nd half season: #55 2nd half season: #67
Last 6: #42 Last 6: #105
Injury Mod Rank: #43 Injury Mod Rank: #90
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: NA Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #18 Sweet 16: #32
A clear advantage to the 4-seed, not unexpected, but Furman is no slouch, ranking in the top 100 for the most part while Virginia is a very weak 4. The Paladins' strength is on offense, where they outrank the Cavs, but their weakness is defense where they're barely in the top 200. And with Virginia boasting a top 25 defense, they're more than equipped to deal with a strong offense.
Virginia also has played a much more challenging schedule, and is a quite consistent team, two things that tend to help prevent upsets (though the Cavaliers had essentially identical SOS and consistency numbers when they were famously upset as a 1-seed). The major difference in style is the teams' tempo on offense; Virginia as always plays very slow, while the Paladins are a much quicker team. On defense both teams tend to have long possessions so the overall pace should be pretty slow.
Furman hasn't played their best very recently but they did enough to win the Southern Conference tournament, and in general they were better the 2nd half of the season. Neither team is seen as a Final Four threat by the MegaScreen program; Virginia is a borderline Sweet Sixteen team while Furman is a longer shot but has hope, which is pretty good for a 13-seed.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (4): =(3)Baylor+7, =(9)Illinois+9, (11)N.C. State+13, (5)Duke+OT
- Losses to tournament teams (4): (1)Houston-8, @(5)Miami FL-2, @(11)Pittsburgh-3, =(5)Duke-10
- Other losses (3): @Virginia Tech-6, @Boston College-15, @North Carolina-8
Overview: Virginia had a very Virginia-like season: lots of wins and a tie for the regular-season ACC title. They might not have been as dominant as the best Cavalier teams of recent past but it helped that the ACC is in a bit of a slump. In the pre-conference season they did beat 3-seed Baylor while falling to 1-seed Houston. Just when it looked like they were really hitting their stride they fell to Duke in the conference tournament final.
Virginia is a veteran team; senior Armaan Franklin leads the team with 12.5 ppg and 5th-year senior point guard Kihei Clark is still dishing out the assists for the Cavaliers.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): none
- Losses to tournament teams (2): =(10)Penn St.-5, @(11)N.C. State-19
- Other losses (5): =Old Dominion-5, High Point-3, @Western Carolina-12, UNC Greensboro-OT, @The Citadel-4
Overview: After playing Penn State close, Furman follow that up very impressively, losing to Old Dominion and then High Point in the pre-conference season. NC State handled them pretty easily, too. But they hit their stride when the competition got easier, and looked like they were becoming unstoppable before a shocking loss to The Citadel brought them down to earth. The Paladins weren't quite as impressive after that but took care of business in the Southern Conference tournament to get a bid.
Furman boasts the best 2-point shooting in the country; leading scorers Mike Bothwell (18.0 ppg) and Jalen Slawson (15.7) both shoot over 60% on 2's. They're only average from behind the arc, however, and they take quite a few 3s.
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Game Analysis: Both teams play "slow" on defense so the overall tempo is probably going to be pretty slow, and that's the way Virginia likes it. Furman will try to speed things up on offense but the overall pace will be subdued, not a run-and-gun.
Virginia will have their hands full on defense, as Furman can shoot the ball very well, they don't turn it over, and they look for lots of threes. Virginia's defense tends to prevent easy 2's while letting the opponent shoot three-pointers, a strategy that could work against the Paladins who are great 2-point shooters but not great 3-point shooters.
While Virginia's offense isn't the best, they should do pretty well against Furman's D which is lacking. These possessions will be long ones and the Paladins need to stick with it to have a chance to win with their offense.
Vegas Line:
Virginia by 5 1/2
Power rating: spread
Virginia by 5.2
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Virginia: 64.3%
Furman: 35.7%
A pretty narrow spread for a 4-seed vs. a 13-seed, where the former has won almost 80% of the contests. We have Virginia winning about 2 in 3 games based on the teams' performances this year, so Furman is definitely a live underdog and not a bad pick depending on how your brackets reward upsets.
Bottom line: Going in I thought this was a good upset pick, as Virginia is a pretty poor 4-seed. But they are a veteran team and while Furman's offense is great, the Virginia pack-line seems ready-made to defend against Furman's strength (2 pointers) and lead them willingly into their relative weakness (3 pointers). Furman also hasn't beaten any team in the top 100 of Kenpom and that's a bit much.
Final prediction: Virginia 62, Furman 48
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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