All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Maryland Terrapins
Seed: 8
Record: 21-12
Conference: Big Ten
vs.
West Virginia Mountaineers
Seed: 9
Record: 19-14
Conference: Big Twelve
Date: Thursday, March 16
Time: 12:15 pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Birmingham, AL
Channel: CBS
8- vs 9-seeds are almost always a tossup, and this one in particular is tough to get a handle on.
Maryland West Virginia
Power Ratings
Strength: #27 Strength: #15
Median: #25 Median: #23
Markov: #17 Markov: #24
Pomeroy: #22 Pomeroy: #17
Offense: #35 Offense: #15
Defense: #33 Defense: #52
BPI: #20 BPI: #23
LRMC: #25 LRMC: #22
Other Measures:
SOS: #48 SOS: #4
Tempo (Offense): #247 Tempo (Offense): #207
Consistency: #303 Consistency: #330
Str + Reliability: #38 Str + Reliability: #33
Str + Potential: #24 Str + Potential: #11
2nd half season: #17 2nd half season: #26
Last 6: #47 Last 6: #12
Injury Mod Rank: #26 Injury Mod Rank: #16
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: #NA Final 4: #NA
Sweet 16: #41 Sweet 16: #38
West Virginia has a slight edge in Strength and Pomeroy, but it's close in the LRMC and the BPI favors the Terps. Whichever team is on offense should have an edge as the Mountaineers offense is #15 while their defense is just #52.
West Virginia has also played a much tougher schedule than the Terrapins; despite both teams being in tough conferences, the Big Twelve is wall-to-wall killers while there are a few refuges to take in the Big Ten (Maryland managed to play Minnesota three times). Both teams are pretty inconsistent, ranking in the 300s in that measure, so I guess it's a "close game" that could be a blowout win either direction. West Virginia finished a lot better than Maryland did, especially if you disregard their last game.
In SportsRatings' new MegaScreen rankings, neither team is seen as a potential Final Four contender and both even rank pretty low for Sweet Sixteen consideration.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): =(5)Miami FL+18, (9)Illinois+5, (4)Indiana+11, (10)Penn St.+6, (1)Purdue+14, (7)Northwestern+16
- Losses to tournament teams (7): =(4)Tennessee-3, (2)UCLA-27, @(8)Iowa-14, @(1)Purdue-3, @(7)Michigan St.-5, @(10)Penn St.-1, =(4)Indiana-10
- Other losses (5): @Wisconsin-5, @Michigan-35, @Rutgers-14, @Nebraska-OT, @Ohio St.-11
Overview: Maryland started strong but hit turbulence near the start of the Big Ten season, losing non-conference tilts to 4-seed Tennessee and 2-seed UCLA, and hitting bottom with an 81-46 loss at Michigan. They recovered pretty well, finishing 9-5 over their last 14 games but 3 of their last six wins were over conference doormat Minnesota.
Jahmir Young leads four starters in double figures with 16.1 ppg.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): @(11)Pittsburgh+25, (6)TCU+9, (9)Auburn+3, (6)Iowa St.+5, @(6)Iowa St.+3, (3)Kansas St.+8
- Losses to tournament teams (11): =(1)Purdue-12, @(3)Xavier-10, @(3)Kansas St.-OT, (1)Kansas-14, (3)Baylor-5, (2)Texas-8, @(6)TCU-4, @(2)Texas-34, @(3)Baylor-12, @(1)Kansas-2, =(1)Kansas-17
- Other losses (3): @Oklahoma St.-7, @Oklahoma-1, Texas Tech-6
Overview: West Virginia lost to 11 tournament teams, defeated an amazing 10 times by top-3 seeds. They only beat a top 3 seed once, when they beat Kansas State. Their three non-tournament team losses were to good teams, too, the Oklahomas and Texas Tech. They suffered an early 5-game skid in conference play but finished with three strong wins before losing big to Kansas in the conference tournament, their third loss to the 1-seed Jayhawks this season.
The Mountaineers have four scorers in double figures led by Erik Stevenson who averages 15.5 ppg.
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Game Analysis: For an 8-9 matchup you look at which team is doing well, but not many teams finish strong in the Big Twelve or Big Ten and these two are no exception. 9-seeds actually have a slim edge in what is considered a tossup seed matchup.
It doesn't help that both teams are pretty unpredictable, too. Both have had their slumps during the season and recovered. Both are led by four starters in double figures with a key guard who scores over 15 points. Both teams are pretty well-rounded offensively and defensively, with each offense having an approximately even advantage over the other team's defense.
Vegas Line:
West Virginia by 2
Power rating: spread
West Virginia by 1.6
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Maryland: 48.4%
West Virginia: 51.6%
Vegas and the Strength power rating agree almost to a "T" that the Mountaineers are a very slim favorite. And their 51.6% chance to win by the Game-Comparisons method matches almost exactly the 51.4% chance that 9-seeds have to beat 8-seeds.
Bottom line: It's hard to get too caught up in the game as the winner faces Alabama and neither team looks up to that task.
Final prediction: West Virginia 72, Maryland 70
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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