All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Florida Atlantic Owls
Seed: 9
Record: 32-3
Conference: C-USA
vs.
Fairleigh Dickinson Knights
Seed: 16
Record: 21-15
Conference: Northeast
Date: Sunday, March 19
Time: 7:45 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Columbus, OH
Channel: truTV
Fairleigh Dickinson was only the 2nd 16-seed to make the Round of 32; they can be the first in the Sweet Sixteen.
FAU FDU
Power Ratings
Strength: #29 Strength: #288
Median: #31 Median: #311
Markov: #32 Markov: #200
Pomeroy: #22 Pomeroy: #275
Offense: #31 Offense: #145
Defense: #35 Defense: #353
BPI: #34 BPI: #265
LRMC: #16 LRMC: #278
Other Measures:
SOS: #124 SOS: #360
Tempo (Offense): #77 Tempo (Offense): #131
Consistency: #121 Consistency: #323
Str + Reliability: #22 Str + Reliability: #321
Str + Potential: #45 Str + Potential: #249
2nd half season: #36 2nd half season: #271
Last 6: #8 Last 6: #126
Injury Mod Rank: #28 Injury Mod Rank: #288
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: NA Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: NA Sweet 16: NA
This is an incredible mismatch from every number here, but, what can we say? So was Purdue vs. FDU, to a more ridiculous degree. Purdue's last six games were only #28 if that was a crack in their armor, and Florida Atlantic doesn't even have that as a weakness. They rank around #30 in all the power ratings and #16 in the LRMC, while Fairleigh Dickinson, even after beating Purdue, is in the low 200s across the board. Except the Markov chain which has jumped them 98 spots for that win! They're still #353 in Defense in Pomeroy, up from #359 which seems stingy. As does the rise in SOS from #362 to #360. The tiny rise in Median from #313 to #311, on the other had is expected, since that's how a median works.
The Knights' play over the last six games went from #214 to #126, and their Consistency dropped from #258 to #323.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (2): (16)Northern Kentucky+15, =(8)Memphis+1
- Losses to tournament teams (0): None
- Other losses (3): @Mississippi-13, @UAB-9, @Middle Tennessee-4
Overview: FAU lost early and didn't lose for a long time after that. The road loss to Ole Miss was their last for 20 games. Admittedly there weren't many challenges along the way: Florida, South Alabama, North Texas, and UAB were their toughest tests, and they did get a tournament field win over 16-seed Northern Kentucky. But they won by big margins typically, keeping their power ratings high and tipping off observers that they were a team to keep track of. They lost on the road to UAB and Middle Tennessee and after the latter seemed to kick into high gear. Maybe they were unsure of getting an at-large bid and wanted some certainty? In any case their last 7 games are next-level, and their 78-56 neutral court win in the rubber match with UAB is just as strong as Memphis' final win over Houston.
Florida Atlantic spreads out the scoring, with leader Johnell Davis averaging 13.5 per game and 7 others topping 5.0 per game. They play a very short lineup with the exception of 7-1 center Vlad Goldin. Giancarlo Rosado made all six of his field goal attempts in leading the Owls with 15 points in the win over Memphis.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (2): =(16)Texas Southern+23, =(1)Purdue+5
- Losses to tournament teams (1): @(11)Pittsburgh-22
- Other losses (14): @Loyola Chicago-OT, =SIU Edwardsville-1, @Longwood-16, @Saint Peter's-14, @Hartford-8, @Richmond-29, Queens-9, Sacred Heart-7, Stonehill-11, Wagner-4, Central Connecticut-4, @Sacred Heart-OT, @St. Francis PA-10, @Merrimack-1
Overview: Fairleigh Dickinson is the rare team (first?) to get an automatic bid despite losing in the finals of their conference tournament, as Merrimack isn't eligible during transition to D-I. But they got a win over Texas Southern in the play-in game to make up for it; they're legit now!
FDU's early season was dismal, with a 3-6 start before a huge 97-80 win over St. Joe's jump started their season. Suddenly they were only losing two in a row instead of 5 in 6. But they did what they needed to do—reach the NEC finals—to get a bid and here they are, playing Purdue.
5-8 point guard Demetre Roberts is the teams leading scorer with 16.7 per game. In the historic and logic-defying win over Purdue, Sean Moore led with 19 points. Despite being outrebounded by the Boilermakers the Knights took 9 more shots total.
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Game Analysis: Interestingly the first round was both teams' 2nd win over the tournament field, as Florida Atlantic had only beaten 16-seed Northern Kentucky while Fairleigh DIckinson beat Texas Southern in the play-in round.
I'm not picking lightning to strike twice. Fairleigh Dickinson's own coach said they had a very specific plan for Purdue and somehow, it worked. Looking back at 16-seed UMBC against Kansas State in their second-round game, the Retrievers did pretty well, losing 50-43 to the Wildcat as a 13-point underdog per the Strength power rating and 10 1/2 points by Vegas.
Vegas Line:
FAU by 15
Power rating: spread
FAU by 20.7
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
FAU: 90.7%
FDU: 9.3%
This looks like a 3 vs. a 14-seed in terms of odds to win, or even a 2 vs. a 15-seed which after this year's first round is now a 7.2% proposition. Vegas is a bit more subdued in terms of the spread than the Strength power rating, which isn't buying the hype. Or rather, it sees a lot of hype for FAU who has been playing like a top-10 team lately.
Bottom line: FAU deserves a Sweet Sixteen berth and I think they'll get it without much trouble. But I'm not picking FDU by the points after underestimating them so much last time around.
Final prediction: Florida Atlantic 78, Fairleigh Dickinson 66
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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