All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Memphis Tigers
Seed: 8
Record: 26-8
Conference: American
vs.
Florida Atlantic Owls
Seed: 9
Record: 31-3
Conference: C-USA
Date: Friday, March 17
Time: 9:20 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Columbus, OH
Channel: TNT
Both very undervalued seeds, the winner of this game will give 1-seed Purdue a tough battle.
Memphis Florida Atlantic
Power Ratings
Strength: #25 Strength: #29
Median: #34 Median: #31
Markov: #13 Markov: #32
Pomeroy: #19 Pomeroy: #22
Offense: #26 Offense: #31
Defense: #36 Defense: #35
BPI: #29 BPI: #34
LRMC: #13 LRMC: #16
Other Measures:
SOS: #55 SOS: #124
Tempo (Offense): #17 Tempo (Offense): #77
Consistency: #77 Consistency: #121
Str + Reliability: #18 Str + Reliability: #22
Str + Potential: #46 Str + Potential: #45
2nd half season: #20 2nd half season: #37
Last 6: #3 Last 6: #10
Injury Mod Rank: #17 Injury Mod Rank: #28
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: #9 Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #19 Sweet 16: NA
Another very even 8 vs 9 matchup. Memphis has a slight edge in just about every power rating, either 3, 4, or 5 spots ahead of the Owls. Interestingly the Median value, which is essentially a team's typical performance, favors FAU. But as we'll see, Memphis has a couple of outlier games. In the LRMC this is a Sweet Sixteen matchup, #13 vs. #16. Memphis also finishes 13th in our Markov implementation but FAU is all the way down at #32.
The Kenpom Offense and Defense rankings are pretty close, too, with each team having a minuscule edge when on offense. Memphis has played a notably tougher schedule, which may be important. Both teams play a fast tempo—Memphis even faster than fast. Both teams are pretty consistent, too, meaning that if a close game is predicted, that's probably what we'll get. The unfortunate thing is that both teams are in the top 10 in recent play—Memphis at #3—and they're up against each other. It's a waste of perfectly good momentum.
If Memphis gets past FAU they have a shot at a Final Four run according to the MegaScreen. Florida Atlantic isn't on the radar there, even for the Sweet Sixteen.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (4): (12)VCU+15, =(9)Auburn+9, (7)Texas A&M+4, =(1)Houston+10
- Losses to tournament teams (3): @(1)Alabama-3, @(1)Houston-8, (1)Houston-2
- Other losses (5): @Saint Louis-6, =Seton Hall-1, @Tulane-7, @UCF-OT, Tulane-OT
Overview: Memphis played a pretty good season until the last two games, when they suddenly played like a national title contender. But let's rewind. Memphis lost early to St. Louis and Seton Hall, but beat 12-seed VCU 62-47 in game 3. They beat 9-seed Auburn but lost to 1-seed Alabama 91-88 on the road. They didn't play Houston until they were 14 games deep in the American Athletic schedule; the Tigers fell to the Cougars twice, 72-64 and 67-65, before getting their revenge in a 75-65 win on the American final that wasn't even that close. It also wasn't their best game of the year; that came just before when they throttled Tulane 94-54, getting revenge on another team that beat them twice this year. Of their 8 losses, three were to 1-seeds and two more were in overtime.
Memphis' Kendrick Davis is one of the nation's top players, leading the team in scoring at 22.1 points per game, dishing out 5.6 assists and garnering 2.0 steals.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (1): (16)Northern Kentucky+15
- Losses to tournament teams (0): None
- Other losses (3): @Mississippi-13, @UAB-9, @Middle Tennessee-4
Overview: FAU lost early and didn't lose for a long time after that. The road loss to Ole Miss was their last for 20 games. Admittedly there weren't many challenges along the way: Florida, South Alabama, North Texas, and UAB were their toughest tests, and they did get a tournament field win over 16-seed Northern Kentucky. But they won by big margins typically, keeping their power ratings high and tipping off observers that they were a team to keep track of. They lost on the road to UAB and Middle Tennessee and after the latter seemed to kick into high gear. Maybe they were unsure of getting an at-large bid and wanted some certainty? In any case their last 7 games are next-level, and their 78-56 neutral court win in the rubber match with UAB is just as strong as Memphis' final win over Houston.
Florida Atlantic spreads out the scoring, with leader Johnell Davis averaging 13.5 per game and 7 others topping 5.0 per game. They play a very short lineup with the exception of 7-1 center Vlad Goldin.
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Game Analysis: This game is interesting for its height matchups. FAU plays four guards, all 6-4 or under, and a 7-foot center, while Memphis plays two 6-0 even guards, two mid-range forwards, and a 6-9 center. While FAU's center might cause problems inside for Memphis, so might the longer Memphis forwards have mismatches with their smaller counterparts.
Memphis doesn't shoot a lot of threes on offense, while FAU defends the 2-pointer and rebounds well. FAU shoots well but Memphis is pretty solid in defending both the 2 and 3. FAU could have a rebounding edge when on offense too. The height mismatches might hamper both teams' offenses, leading to a lower-scoring game. If it comes down to free throws Memphis has a slight edge 74.7% to 71.7%.
The question quickly becomes: can FAU continue to play as well as they did in their last 7 games? If so, they win—unless Memphis can play like they did in their last two games. If that happens, the Tigers run away with it.
My concerns for each team are: For FAU, that their schedule hasn't prepared them for top teams. They only played one team that made the NCAA tournament, and if they hadn't played that one they'd fall into the "out-of-network" sample, and no team "unconnected" to the rest of the field has won a March Madness game (as of 2012, I believe, this may no longer be true).
For Memphis, they might get overconfident. Already they're kind of a cocky team, saying that they expect to beat everyone when they walk on the court. Having just thrashed Houston they might be looking ahead to the next 1-seed they can beat, Purdue. If they don't have a great game against FAU for whatever reason, they won't get the chance.
Vegas Line:
Memphis by 1 1/2
Power rating: spread
Memphis by 0.25
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Memphis: 50.2%
FAU: 49.8%
It can't get much closer than this. The sportsbooks have Memphis by 1.5 points while Strength has Memphis by 1/4 of a point. That suggests overtime, perhaps double overtime, which isn't a long shot as we see by the game comparison method: this is a tossup. In 1,156 cross-compared game performances Memphis wins 580 times, FAU 576.
Bottom line: It's a shame these teams were matched up. I was looking forward to advancing both of the to the Round of 32 for sure, and maybe beyond. Instead, here we are. I like Memphis—just barely—because they shoot better from the foul line, and come ahead by about 1/4 of a point either with all games counted, or when we count just the last 7 games of FAU's outlier success, too. Their tougher schedule helps, too; they just better not even try to look past to Owls or they'll get smoked.
Final prediction: Memphis 66, FAU 65
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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