All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Arkansas Razorbacks
Seed: 8
Record: 20-13
Conference: SEC
vs.
Illinois Fighting Illini
Seed: 9
Record: 20-12
Conference: Big Ten
Date: Thursday, March 16
Time: 4:30pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Des Moines, IA
Channel: TBS
The fun part of analyzing 8-seed vs. 9-seed games is you can never tell which side is going to look like the favorite.
Arkansas Illinois
Power Ratings
Strength: #19 Strength: #30
Median: #30 Median: #15
Markov: #36 Markov: #30
Pomeroy: #20 Pomeroy: #33
Offense: #51 Offense: #58
Defense: #16 Defense: #32
BPI: #14 BPI: #30
LRMC: #23 LRMC: #34
Other Measures:
SOS: #16 SOS: #52
Tempo (Offense): #143 Tempo (Offense): #104
Consistency: #205 Consistency: #223
Str + Reliability: #21 Str + Reliability: #30
Str + Potential: #28 Str + Potential: #33
2nd half season: #40 2nd half season: #31
Last 6: #35 Last 6: #76
Injury Mod Rank: #24 Injury Mod Rank: #31
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: NA Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #17 Sweet 16: NA
Who has the edge here? At first it appears Arkansas comes out better, with a better Strength rating, but look at the Median values—Illinois is up to #15 and Arkansas down to #30, and the median game reflects what should happen when all the "outliers" are removed. Illinois even wins SportsRatings' implementation of a Markov chain method. But Arkansas is back to winning in Pomeroy, and wins big in the BPI. The LRMC is close but Arkansas wins there, too, showing how different two implementations of the same idea (Markov chain) can result. About the only thing we can conclude is these teams play better defense than offense (and those numbers between the teams are very close, too).
A bit surprisingly, Arkansas played the tougher schedule though both have solid SOS numbers of course. No real tempo clash, and both teams are moderately consistent. Arkansas has faltered over the 2nd half of the season but Illinois seems to have hit the skids in recent play. Arkansas' Injury Mod ranking reflects the loss of Trevon Brazile mitigated by getting Nick Smith back.
Neither team is judged by the MegaScreen overlord as having a real shot at the Final Four, and only Arkansas is judged Sweet Sixteen worthy (and then is not expected to quite make it).
- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): =(5)San Diego St.+OT, (15)UNC Asheville+34, (7)Missouri+6, (7)Texas A&M+11, @(6)Kentucky+15, =(9)Auburn+3
- Losses to tournament teams (11): =(6)Creighton-3, @(9)Auburn-13, (1)Alabama-15, @(7)Missouri-3, @(3)Baylor-3, (11)Mississippi St.-6, @(7)Texas A&M-6, @(1)Alabama-3, @(4)Tennessee-18, (6)Kentucky-9, =(7)Texas A&M-6
- Other losses (2): @LSU-3, @Vanderbilt-13
Overview: Arkansas started strong with 11 wins in 12 games, beating 5-seed San Diego State in overtime but losing to 6-seed Creighton. The Razorbacks hit a rough patch corresponding with losing two players and dropped five out of six, but recovered to win 5 of 6 afterwards. They were 4-10 against tournament-bound SEC foes and played Baylor close on the road. They ended with another skid, losing 4 of 5, but played very well in the Auburn win and the 3-point Alabama road loss.
Five Razorbacks have averaged in double figures over the season, but one of them (Trevor Brazile) is injured and another (Nick Smith) missed a lot of the season but is back. Ricky Council IV leads the team at 15.9ppg.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (4): =(2)UCLA+9, =(2)Texas+OT, (7)Michigan St.+9, (7)Northwestern+4
- Losses to tournament teams (11): =(4)Virginia-9, @(8)Maryland-5, (10)Penn St.-15, =(7)Missouri-22, @(7)Northwestern-13, (4)Indiana-15, @(8)Iowa-2, @(10)Penn St.-12, @(4)Indiana-3, @(1)Purdue-5, =(10)Penn St.-3
- Other losses (1): @Ohio St.-12
Overview: Illinois had some great wins this year—but most of them came early. The Illini handed both 2-seed UCLA and 2-seed Texas their first loss of the season, but Illinois fell to 4-seed Virginia and 7-seed Missouri and suffered two early Big Ten losses. They were only 9-5 when they went on their best Big Ten run, winning 7 of 8, but finished poorly at 4-6. It kind of seems like the team's best basketball is behind them, especially after their early exit in the Big Ten tournament.
Illinois is led by Terrence Shannon Jr's 17.1 points per game.
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Game Analysis: It's nice to see a game that looks very even, and it's also nice that the location won't affect it—neither team is flying across three time zones to get to Des Moines, Iowa, which is a great neutral site for a game like this.
But something tells me we won't see the best version of each team. Both teams seem to have hit their peak early in the season—Arkansas when they had Brazile, and Illinois when they beat Texas and UCLA. After that, both seasons rolled on with fits and starts but never quite recaptured their early potential. If either team were up against an average 8 or 9-seed, I'd take the opponent. But someone has to win this game.
Both teams shoot poorly from the 3-point line and well within it. But Illinois still shoots the three a lot while Arkansas doesn't, meaning the Razorbacks score a whopping 59% of their points from 2-point shots (about 51% is normal, and that's what the Illini do). Lucky for Illinois, their 2-point defense is pretty exceptional (#17 according to Pomeroy) which might be enough to give them the edge here.
Vegas Line:
Arkansas by 2 1/2
Power rating: spread
Arkansas by 1.4
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Arkansas: 50.8%
Illinois: 49.2%
Here you can see the effect of a strong Median. When counting game by game, the extremes only count once but a strong core of good values adds up. That's why Illinois only loses 50.8% of the game comparisons despite their average game being 1.4 points worse than Arkansas'. In other words, if they play their (mean) average game, Arkansas wins. But if they play their average—median—game, the Illini win (by about 1.7 points).
Bottom line: This is a tough one to call. Short of flipping a coin, I'll go with Illinois having great 2-point defense being the edge. I'm also impressed that they outrank Arkansas in both Median Strength and the Markov chain formula. A close game, neither team playing particularly well, but someone has to win it.
Final prediction: Illinois 80, Arkansas 78 OT
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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