All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Texas A&M Aggies
Seed: 7
Record: 25-9
Conference: SEC
vs.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Seed: 10
Record: 22-13
Conference: Big Ten
Date: Thursday, March 16
Time: 9:55pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Des Moines, IA
Channel: TBS
Yet another Big Ten vs. SEC contest. It's not too surprising since each conference has 8 teams in the Dance.
Texas A&M Penn State
Power Ratings
Strength: #32 Strength: #44
Median: #17 Median: #46
Markov: #27 Markov: #26
Pomeroy: #25 Pomeroy: #39
Offense: #30 Offense: #17
Defense: #37 Defense: #101
BPI: #19 BPI: #46
LRMC: #27 LRMC: #36
Other Measures:
SOS: #49 SOS: #30
Tempo (Offense): #142 Tempo (Offense): #309
Consistency: #333 Consistency: #59
Str + Reliability: #50 Str + Reliability: #26
Str + Potential: #21 Str + Potential: #67
2nd half season: #9 2nd half season: #43
Last 6: #23 Last 6: #30
Injury Mod Rank: #33 Injury Mod Rank: #45
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: NA Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #27 Sweet 16: NA
The most basic power rating, Strength, puts Texas A&M ahead #32 to #44 but the using the same game valuations to find a team's Median performance the Aggies pull way ahead at #17, showing that there are some bad performances dragging down their (mean) average. Penn State, however, is head by one spot in the Markov chain ratings. The Aggies win by a bigger margin in Pomeroy and the BPI, while it's tight again in the LRMC. A&M is about as good when on offense or defense, while Penn State clearly win with their near-top 10 offense rather than their #101 defense.
Penn State plays a much slower tempo, and the teams really diverge in Consistency, where Penn State is very stable compared to the Aggies. Both teams have been a lot better lately: A&M in the 2nd half of the season is a top ten team, while the Lions have come on strong very recently. Neither team, however, is seen to have a deep run potential by the MegaScreen.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): (7)Missouri+18, @(9)Auburn+16, (9)Auburn+5, (8)Arkansas+6, @(7)Missouri+9, (4)Tennessee+5, (1)Alabama+6, =(8)Arkansas+6
- Losses to tournament teams (6): (10)Boise St.-15, @(8)Memphis-4, @(6)Kentucky-9, @(8)Arkansas-11, @(11)Mississippi St.-7, =(1)Alabama-19
- Other losses (3): =Murray St.-9, =Colorado-28, Wofford-5
Overview: Texas A&M started slow, to say the least. At the Myrtle Beach Invitational the Aggies lost to Murray State and fell to Colorado 103-75. Losses to eventual 10-seed Boise State and 8-seed Memphis weren't bad, but they also lost to Wofford at home. At 6-5, the future didn't look bright. But contrary to all logic, they started winning once their schedule got a lot tougher in the SEC season. The Aggies finished an amazing 15-3 in SEC play and reached the final of the conference tournament losing to 1-seed Alabama, whom they'd defeated a week earlier. Texas A&M's inconsistency rating results mostly from their first 11 games; after that they aren't really that extreme.
Wade Taylor IV leads the team with 16.5 points per game.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (10): =(13)Furman+5, @(9)Illinois+15, (8)Iowa+4, (4)Indiana+19, (9)Illinois+12, @(7)Northwestern+OT, (8)Maryland+1, =(9)Illinois+3, =(7)Northwestern+OT, =(4)Indiana+4
- Losses to tournament teams (5): (7)Michigan St.-9, (1)Purdue-13, @(1)Purdue-20, @(8)Maryland-6, =(1)Purdue-2
- Other losses (8): =Virginia Tech-2, @Clemson-OT, @Michigan-10, @Wisconsin-3, @Rutgers-20, @Nebraska-9, Wisconsin-OT, Rutgers-3
Overview: Penn State gave little indication early that they were an NCAA tournament team, starting 6-3 with losses to Virginia Tech, Clemson, and Michigan State, thought they took the Tigers into double overtime on the road. They beat Illinois on the road and Iowa at home but lost 8 of their next 11 and were 14-11 with a month to go. Then the turnaround started, with wins over 9-seed Illinois, 7-seed Northwestern, 8-seed Maryland, Illinois again (to complete a 3-game sweep), Northwestern again (2-game sweep), and 4-seed Indiana. In the end Penn State had 10 wins over tournament teams to only 5 losses, pretty incredible for a 10-seed but there's also those 8 non-tournament losses.
Penn State's Jalen Pickett is the key to their offense's success; the 6-4" point guard is one of the nation's best players, averaging 17.9 points per game, and leads the team with 7.3 rebounds, 6.7 assists, and 1 steal per game. The Lions are by far the most experienced team in the field, ranking #1 per KenPom with a staggering 4.07 years of experience on average!
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Game Analysis: Texas A&M's offense will be a challenge for Penn State's D. The Aggies get to the free throw line a lot where they make 76%, and they rebound on offense at a top ten rate. This makes up for their generally poor shooting. Penn State's defense doesn't try to get steals or blocked shots, they just go for rebounds. It doesn't work out that well for them usually.
Meanwhile Penn State's top 25 offense has a clear focus too and it is not on rebounding where they rank 2nd to last in the nation. They also don't get to the free throw line a lot (3rd to last in the nation, per Pomeroy). They aim to make their shots, taking the time they need to get a good one, and they shoot the 3 about as often as they can (#10 in the nation in 3-point ratio). This works because they shoot the ball very well: 38.5% from the 3-point line and 53.5% inside it. And because of Jalen Pickett.
Neither team plays a very tall lineup; there will be times when no player on the court is taller than 6-7.
Vegas Line:
Texas A&M by 3 1/2
Power rating: spread
Texas A&M by 1.8
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Texas A&M: 59.0%
Penn State: 41.0%
10-seeds beat 7-seeds about 40% of the time, so the game-comparison odds here are spot-on in terms of historical precedent.
Bottom line: Both teams are playing really well, so this is the kind of game you like to see. On the other hand it's too bad both of them can't advance so they could meet instead in the 2nd round. Texas A&M's inconsistency makes them look vulnerable to an upset but that's mostly a product of their play in the first half of the season. Penn State on the other hand is quite consistent, and even now in their recent gameplay surge, they're slightly below the Aggies.
Final prediction: Texas A&M 70, Penn State 67
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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