All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Northwestern Wildcats
Seed: 7
Record: 21-11
Conference: Big Ten
vs.
Boise State Broncos
Seed: 10
Record: 24-9
Conference: Mountain West
Date: Thursday, March 16
Time: 7:35pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Sacramento, CA
Channel: truTV
If you like defensive efficiency and toss-up contests, here's a game for you.
Northwestern Boise State
Power Ratings
Strength: #38 Strength: #37
Median: #35 Median: #39
Markov: #33 Markov: #29
Pomeroy: #42 Pomeroy: #31
Offense: #109 Offense: #78
Defense: #13 Defense: #14
BPI: #41 BPI: #47
LRMC: #46 LRMC: #29
Other Measures:
SOS: #38 SOS: #75
Tempo (Offense): #308 Tempo (Offense): #255
Consistency: #347 Consistency: #265
Str + Reliability: #67 Str + Reliability: #47
Str + Potential: #23 Str + Potential: #37
2nd half season: #39 2nd half season: #29
Last 6: #26 Last 6: #68
Injury Mod Rank: #38 Injury Mod Rank: #25
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: NA Final 4: #12
Sweet 16: #29 Sweet 16: #36
Looks like a pretty tight game right off the bat from the Strength power rating having these teams side by side, with the 10-seed one spot ahead of the 7-seed. The Median doesn't agree with the average, though, as Northwestern is #35 to Boise's #39 there. The Markov chain algorithm gives the edge back to Boise, but not by much.
On to Pomeroy, where Boise State is 11 spots ahead; the discrepancy is due to possession-based rather than game-based rating. That advantage doesn't translate to the BPI where Northwestern is ahead by six spots, but in the LRMC (also Markov-chain based) Boise State gets their biggest "win" ranking #29 to Northwestern's #46.
That's three for Boise and two for Northwestern, and one too close to call. When it comes to defense it's also too close to call between these teams as both are easily in the top 25 in Pomeroy. And neither offense is in the top 75. Both teams have played a reasonably tough schedule at least, and both play at a fairly mild tempo on offense. And neither team is particularly consistent game to game. Over the last 6 games Northwestern seems to have turned it up a bit while Boise has lagged, but correcting for player absences for Boise puts their current lineup's Strength well ahead of Northwestern. Lots of conflicting information here.
Interestingly while Northwestern outranks Boise State in the Sweet 16 MegaScreen, the Broncos show up on the short list for the Final Four. It's one of those cases where a team could go far if it gets past the first round, or at least has Cinderella possibility (not all Cinderellas find their shoe).
- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): @(7)Michigan St.+7, (9)Illinois+13, @(4)Indiana+1, (1)Purdue+6, (4)Indiana+2, (8)Iowa+20
- Losses to tournament teams (7): =(9)Auburn-1, (11)Pittsburgh-29, @(8)Iowa-16, @(9)Illinois-4, @(8)Maryland-16, (10)Penn St.-OT, =(10)Penn St.-OT
- Other losses (4): Ohio St.-16, Rutgers-3, @Michigan-7, Michigan-17
Overview: Northwestern wasn't on anyone's radar (as usual) to begin the season so after they waltzed through five early opponents and lost to Auburn and Pitt, nothing seemed unusual. But then they beat 7-seed Michigan State in an early Big Ten contest. At 10-2 they fell to Ohio State but then beat 9-seed Illinois and 4-seed Indiana back to back. By then it was clear Northwestern had to be taken seriously, and the Wildcats alternated between winning and losing almost randomly but along the way scored a win over 1-seed Purdue as part of a 5-game win streak. The Wildcats lost 4 of their last 5 but had long secured their bid.
Northwestern's stingy defense is the key to their success; they guard the 2-point goal well and get a lot of blocks and steals, forcing longer shots from opponents. On offense point guard Boo Buie leads the team with 17.1 points and 4.5 assists per game.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (4): @(7)Texas A&M+15, (10)Utah St.+23, (11)Nevada+15, (5)San Diego St.+6
- Losses to tournament teams (4): @(11)Nevada-2, @(5)San Diego St.-20, @(10)Utah St.-13, =(10)Utah St.-10
- Other losses (5): South Dakota St.-2, =Charlotte-12, @Santa Clara-15, @New Mexico-OT, @San Jose St.-OT
Overview: Boise State kicked off the 2022-2023 season in the worst way, losing at home to South Dakota State and then 54-42 to Charlotte in Conway, SC (that's a neutral court?) to start 1-2. But it didn't take long for the Broncos to start racking up the wins, including 7-seed Texas A&M by 15. They still stumbled and lost to teams they shouldn't—Santa Clara, San José State—but for the most part they got a lot better and a lot more consistent in Mountain West play. They dropped three of their last five games but beat 5-seed San Diego State in that span, too.
The Bronco defense guards the 3 as well as the 2 and focuses on rebounding rather than shot-blocking or steals. Tyson Degenhart leads the team with 14.3 ppg while 6'-2" point guard Marcus Shaver leads the team in rebounds as well as steals and assists. He missed the game during two of their worst losses and overall the team plays much better with him on board.
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Game Analysis: We might not know who is going to win but it's a safe bet the game will be pretty low scoring. Both offenses have their issues while the defenses have mostly strengths.
Northwestern can't shoot the ball well from 3 or 2, doesn't rebound well on offense, doesn't get to the line often, and is vulnerable to blocked shots. On the other hand they don't turn the ball over much at all and shoot well from the free throw line (they just don't get there much). Boise State actually shoots pretty well, but they are vulnerable to blocked shots and don't rebound misses well.
On defense both teams are very good but in different ways. Northwestern gets blocks and steals while defending the 2-point shot almost exclusively; Boise defends all shots well and rebounds well, forgoing attempts at steals or blocks.
So in theory Northwestern's defense is vulnerable to good three-point shooting and in theory, Boise State can have a good day shooting the 3 (they make 36%). Northwestern almost never shoots well so their offensive strategy has to be patience, and look for the perfect shot. Boise State is very unlikely to take the ball away in the meantime. There will probably be a lot of 3-point shooting this game, as Northwestern likes to take it (despite making 32%) and Boise will probably find that's the only shot they get open for.
Vegas Line:
Northwestern by 1 1/2
Power rating: spread
Boise State by 0.05
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Northwestern: 51.4%
Boise State: 48.6%
An interesting situation here. Vegas favors the Wildcats by a point and a half, while the Strength power rating takes the Broncos by 1/20th of a point, a margin so small that a few "unrelated" teams playing a single game might flip it. In other words, it's predicting a draw, or overtime, or saying "too close to call." It's kind of fitting that this matchup be so close and inconclusive.
On the other hand, the game-comparisons method which cross-compares all of each team's results, shows Northwestern winning a slight majority. Since both teams are pretty inconsistent, the average game score (Boise by 0.05) doesn't jibe with the average game winner (Northwestern, 559 to 529).
Bottom line: After going back and forth with the power ratings, I changed my initial pick after looking at Boise State's chart. They used to be inconsistent, but now they're seemingly very consistent—but at a lower level. They play much better when Marcus Shaver is in the lineup, but he's been in the lineup for the past 9 games where they've played mediocre basketball. Northwestern has also been losing lately, but playing very well comparatively. I'm thinking Boise's potential Cinderella doesn't find her shoe.
Final prediction: Northwestern 78, Boise State 75 2OT
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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