All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Missouri Tigers
Seed: 7
Record: 25-9
Conference: SEC
vs.
Princeton Tigers
Seed: 15
Record: 22-8
Conference: Ivy League
Date: Saturday, March 18
Time: 6:10 pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Sacramento, CA
Channel: TNT
Showdown of the Tigers in Sacramento.
Missouri Princeton
Power Ratings
Strength: #55 Strength: #111
Median: #70 Median: #115
Markov: #53 Markov: #141
Pomeroy: #47 Pomeroy: #98
Offense: #9 Offense: #108
Defense: #163 Defense: #106
BPI: #61 BPI: #110
LRMC: #63 LRMC: #138
Other Measures:
SOS: #56 SOS: #199
Tempo (Offense): #43 Tempo (Offense): #241
Consistency: #332 Consistency: #124
Str + Reliability: #74 Str + Reliability: #108
Str + Potential: #40 Str + Potential: #119
2nd half season: #53 2nd half season: #106
Last 6: #14 Last 6: #77
Injury Mod Rank: #65 Injury Mod Rank: #111
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: NA Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: NA Sweet 16: NA
After beating a team whose numbers outclassed theirs pretty (despite being the better seed) easily, it's Missouri's turn to be the favorite. The Missouri Tigers power rating numbers are generally 50 rungs ahead of the Princeton Tigers across the board. The one obvious exception is defense, where Missouri is a dreadful at #163 while Princeton's own defense improved almost 30 spots after the Arizona game and now stands at #106. With an offense at #106, this gives Princeton a fighting chance—if their own defense can hold up against Missouri's offense. And maybe it can, since Arizona had a similar offensive efficiency going into their first-round game.
Missouri has faced a much tougher schedule—Arizona was only the 2nd team in the field Princeton had faced—and having back-to-back games against a tough opponent isn't something Princeton is used to. And while Princeton's recent play rating is going up, Missouri's went up to #14 as a result of the previous "6th game" dropping off.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): (16)Southeast Missouri St.+7, =(9)Illinois+22, (6)Kentucky+14, (8)Arkansas+3, (6)Iowa St.+17, @(4)Tennessee+1, (11)Mississippi St.+OT, =(4)Tennessee+8, =(10)Utah St.+11
- Losses to tournament teams (8): (1)Kansas-28, @(8)Arkansas-6, @(7)Texas A&M-18, (1)Alabama-21, @(11)Mississippi St.-11, @(9)Auburn-33, (7)Texas A&M-9, =(1)Alabama-11
- Other losses (1): @Florida-9
Overview: Following a disastrous 2022 season, Missouri rode a very easy early schedule to 9-0 but hit a 95-67 wall against 1-seed Kansas at home. The Tigers rebounded to beat 9-seed Illinois and even topped 6-seed Kentucky before the losses started to mount. Despite this, they got in some good wins, over 6-seed Iowa State in the SEC/Big Twelve Challenge, and 4-seed Tennessee not once but twice. They won 5 of 6 at the end but three of those—Georgia, LSU, and Ole Miss—were more akin to their early foes, not the cream of the SEC crop. Getting to the tournament seems like a miracle, though, compared to how they did last year.
Missouri's offense is guard-powered and led by Kobe Brown's 15.8 points per game. Another key guard, Isaiah Mosley, played sporadically for the team this season and they are better with him in the lineup; he's been out for personal reasons for a month now and there's no indication he'll play in the tournament. Despite his continued absence the Tigers handled Utah State 76-65 with DMoi Hodge's 23 points leading the way.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (1): =(2)Arizona+4
- Losses to tournament teams (1): =(13)Iona-6
- Other losses (7): Hofstra-6, @Navy-1, Delaware-7, @Brown-2, @Yale-22, @Dartmouth-7, Yale-OT
Overview: Princeton's season started with two losses but when faced with easier foes they won 8 straight. Then they met 13-seed Iona and lost. And the pattern repeated, whenever Princeton faced someone in the top 100 they would lose, and then recovered with wins over lesser opponents. After two losses to Yale (#67 in Pomeroy) the Tigers finally got a solid win and it gave them an NCAA berth. Beating 2-seed Arizona gave them their first win over a tourney team this year. Wow.
6-8" Princeton forward Tosan Evbuomwan leads the team in scoring with 15.0 ppg but also in assists with 4.8 per game as well as in steals. Evbuomwan had 15 points in the 59-55 upset of Arizona.
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Game Analysis: Missouri is playing a team a lot worse than the one they just beat, so they'll probably win easily right? The same can be said for Princeton though—Missouri is not much compared to Arizona. Same level of offensive play but far worse defense, so Princeton should score a whole lot more this time around, right?
The argument probably makes more sense for Princeton because they managed to do what seemed impossible: limit Arizona to under 60 points. If they can do that to Arizona they can do it to Missouri, and they'll have a much easier time when operating on offense.
After all, Missouri is the more up-and-down team here. The odds that they replicate their good performance against Illinois are about 50/50. Princeton on the other hand is feeling it now.
And somebody has got to exploit Missouri's terrible rebounding sooner or later!
Vegas Line:
Missouri by 7
Power rating: spread
Missouri by 5.8
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Missouri: 64.8%
Princeton: 35.2%
There aren't many examples of 15-seeds playing anyone other than 2-seeds; Princeton is the 10th 15-seed to get past the first round; 5 have played 7-seeds and 5 played 10-seeds. After the last two years, 15-seeds now hold a 3 to 2 edge over 7-seeds. That means Princeton's 35% chance to win is lower than the 60% historical, small-sample odds. Interestingly no 15-seed has beaten a 10-seed, they are 0 for 5.
Bottom line: I didn't have either team here so I can throw caution to the wind. I like the argument that Princeton is taking a step down in competition more than the (equally valid) idea that Missouri has an easier task this time. 15-seeds are starting to storm the Sweet Sixteen with regularity—it's happened the last two years, Princeton can make it three.
Final prediction: Princeton 69, Missouri 64
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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