All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Missouri Tigers
Seed: 7
Record: 24-9
Conference: SEC
vs.
Utah State Aggies
Seed: 10
Record: 26-8
Conference: Mountain West
Date: Thursday, March 16
Time: 1:40 pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Sacramento, CA
Channel: TNT
A rare first-round game where if you pick the favorite, you're picking the underdog.
Missouri Utah State
Power Ratings
Strength: #55 Strength: #22
Median: #70 Median: #13
Markov: #53 Markov: #21
Pomeroy: #51 Pomeroy: #18
Offense: #10 Offense: #13
Defense: #178 Defense: #64
BPI: #61 BPI: #42
LRMC: #63 LRMC: #16
Other Measures:
SOS: #56 SOS: #61
Tempo (Offense): #43 Tempo (Offense): #107
Consistency: #332 Consistency: #248
Str + Reliability: #74 Str + Reliability: #27
Str + Potential: #40 Str + Potential: #27
2nd half season: #62 2nd half season: #32
Last 6: #29 Last 6: #6
Injury Mod Rank: #72 Injury Mod Rank: #19
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: NA Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: NA Sweet 16: #15
10-seed Utah State's numbers outclass Missouri's and it's not even really that close. #22 in Strength to #55 (even wider by median performance), #18 to #51 in KenPom, a closer #42 to #61 in BPI, but a wide #16 to #63 in LRMC. While the teams have relatively even offenses, Missouri's terrible defense (#178) makes Utah State's mediocre D look great.
Missouri can't claim to have faced tougher competition, either, as the Mountain West was great this year and Missouri's non-conference SOS was—other than Kansas and Illinois—a wall of Quad 3 and Quad 4 teams. Both teams play fairly quick tempos on offense which—along with the quality of the offenses and poorer defenses—should lead to an exciting game. Neither team is very predictable, either, which adds intrigue. To top it off, both are playing better basketball very recently than most of the season, though Missouri has become notably worse with the absence of Isaiah Mosley.
Neither team is seen as a deep tournament threat by the MegaScreen, and only Utah State is rated as a Sweet Sixteen possibility, a probability in fact at #15. Missouri's poor defensive rating screens them out, along with their 2nd-worst-in-nation rebounding on defense.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): (16)Southeast Missouri St.+7, =(9)Illinois+22, (6)Kentucky+14, (8)Arkansas+3, (6)Iowa St.+17, @(4)Tennessee+1, (11)Mississippi St.+OT, =(4)Tennessee+8
- Losses to tournament teams (8): (1)Kansas-28, @(8)Arkansas-6, @(7)Texas A&M-18, (1)Alabama-21, @(11)Mississippi St.-11, @(9)Auburn-33, (7)Texas A&M-9, =(1)Alabama-11
- Other losses (1): @Florida-9
Overview: Following a disastrous 2022 season, Missouri rode a very easy early schedule to 9-0 but hit a 95-67 wall against 1-seed Kansas at home. The Tigers rebounded to beat 9-seed Illinois and even topped 6-seed Kentucky before the losses started to mount. Despite this, they got in some good wins, over 6-seed Iowa State in the SEC/Big Twelve Challenge, and 4-seed Tennessee not once but twice. They won 5 of 6 at the end but three of those—Georgia, LSU, and Ole Miss—were more akin to their early foes, not the cream of the SEC crop. Getting to the tournament seems like a miracle, though, compared to how they did last year.
Missouri's offense is guard-powered and led by Kobe Brown's 15.8 points per game. Another key guard, Isaiah Mosley, played sporadically for the team this season and they are better with him in the lineup; he's been out for personal reasons for a month now and there's no indication he'll play in the tournament.
**************************************************************
- Wins vs. tournament teams (4): (12)Oral Roberts+10, (11)Nevada+9, (10)Boise St.+13, =(10)Boise St.+10
- Losses to tournament teams (5): @(10)Boise St.-23, @(11)Nevada-15, @(5)San Diego St.-10, (5)San Diego St.-2, =(5)San Diego St.-5
- Other losses (3): Weber St.-3, =SMU-3, @San Jose St.-5
Overview: Utah State was overlooked all year until they couldn't be ignored any more. Even as the Mountain West gained respect, that respect was seemingly denied the Aggies, who failed to show up in mock brackets until very late in the season (they were in SportsRatings' Dance Chance all season). The breakthrough was a 7-game winning streak at the end of the season where they beat Boise State twice and once again almost beat San Diego State but fell short for the third time this season.
Utah State is a very tall team but it's 6-1 guard Steven Ashworth that does the most damage on offense, averaging 16.3 points per game. Their starting lineup includes a trio over 6-8 and they have a 7-footer in their rotation.
**************************************************************
Game Analysis: It's an interesting dynamic where the 10-seed is clearly favored over the 7-seed. Missouri has probably felt like underdogs all year, however, after last year's dismal season. Utah State, as a mid-Major team, won't feel like the favorite against the SEC team either.
Utah State is a very tall team while Missouri lacks height. This advantage can turn into a disadvantage at times, but usually it's an advantage and Utah State uses their height well. Missouri is just about the worst rebounding team in the country and having this height disadvantage can't help there.
In general this game will be the story of two very good offenses going up against mismatched defenses. Both teams shoot the ball a lot better than the other team defends. Missouri does one thing really well on defense, and that's cause turnovers; Utah State isn't terribly vulnerable to steals, but it suggest a path for the Tigers.
Utah State's defense against 2-pointers is actually really good. But Missouri loves to shoot the three. The Tigers are a bad rebounding team, especially on defense, while the Aggies are solid rebounders on defense and will probably find success on the offensive glass, too, given how poor the Tigers are there.
With a probable quick tempo and a lot of scoring, this should be a really fun game to watch.
Vegas Line:
Utah State by 1
Power rating: spread
Utah State by 3.7
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Missouri: 39.8%
Utah State: 60.2%
The script is flipped by Utah State, the 10-seed. The Aggies are favored by both Vegas and the Strength power rating, and win 60.2% of the game-comparisons. That's the opposite of the normal situation where the 7-seed wins 60.8% of the time.
Bottom line: Even if Utah State weren't the outright favorite this would be a good pick for a 10-seed to upset a 7-seed. Missouri is pretty unpredictable and might rise to the occasion, but Utah State is playing their best right now. The Tigers accomplished their goal of a turnaround season and that might have to be enough for them.
Final prediction: Utah State 84, Missouri 81
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
Comments