All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Michigan State Spartans
Seed: 7
Record: 19-12
Conference: Big Ten
vs.
USC Trojans
Seed: 10
Record: 22-10
Conference: Pac-12
Date: Friday, March 17
Time: 12:15pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Columbus, OH
Channel: CBS
This is a close game, whether we count the whole season or break it down into components.
Michigan State USC
Power Ratings
Strength: #34 Strength: #35
Median: #28 Median: #26
Markov: #39 Markov: #37
Pomeroy: #32 Pomeroy: #36
Offense: #41 Offense: #43
Defense: #40 Defense: #48
BPI: #37 BPI: #54
LRMC: #45 LRMC: #35
Other Measures:
SOS: #3 SOS: #39
Tempo (Offense): #273 Tempo (Offense): #86
Consistency: #89 Consistency: #280
Str + Reliability: #23 Str + Reliability: #48
Str + Potential: #55 Str + Potential: #34
2nd half season: #27 2nd half season: #19
Last 6: #37 Last 6: #17
Injury Mod Rank: #18 Injury Mod Rank: #34
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: NA Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #35 Sweet 16: #25
This game is razor-close in Strength where Michigan State is one rung ahead, while USC is 2 rungs ahead by Median performance and the Markov chain method. In Pomeroy the Spartans are a slight favorite, and they're a huge favorite in the BPI which has them 17 places ahead (why is USC so low there? I don't know). The LRMC favors the Trojans by quite a bit.
Skipping down to recent play, the Trojans are #19 in the 2nd half of the season and #17 over the last 6 games, both well ahead of the Spartans. But Michigan State's current lineup—with Malik Hall back—ranks #18, well ahead of their full-season #34 and comparable to USC's recent play. Which set of numbers should we look at?
- Wins vs. tournament teams (5): =(6)Kentucky+OT, @(10)Penn St.+9, (8)Iowa+2, (8)Maryland+5, (4)Indiana+15
- Losses to tournament teams (8): =(3)Gonzaga-1, =(1)Alabama-11, (7)Northwestern-7, @(9)Illinois-9, (1)Purdue-1, @(4)Indiana-13, @(1)Purdue-16, @(8)Iowa-OT
- Other losses (4): @Notre Dame-18, @Rutgers-6, @Michigan-12, =Ohio St.-10
Overview: Michigan State had rough patches and success alternately this year. They started 5-4 but with the nation's #3 SOS it was a landmine with losses to 3-seed Gonzaga (by one point) and 1-seed Alabama (in Portland) and a win over 6-seed Kentucky (in double overtime). The really bad loss was to Notre Dame, 70-52. The Spartans went on a 7-game win streak over mostly mediocre competition, then lost 5 of 7 over mostly tough opponents (including 1-seed Purdue twice); their level of play barely budged during this time. Down the stretch they won 5 of 8, beating Ohio State twice before losing to the Buckeyes in the Big Ten tournament.
Michigan State boast a trio of double digit scorers: Tyson Walker leads with 14.6ppg while Joey Hauser leads in rebounding with 6.9 and AJ Hoggard dishes out 6.0 assists per game. Malik Hall is a key reserve who missed 8 games early and 3 games in the middle of the Big Ten season but he's back, and in the games he's played Michigan State is a lot better.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (5): (15)Vermont+2, (9)Auburn+3, @(11)Arizona St.+8, (2)UCLA+13, (11)Arizona St.+3
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =(4)Tennessee-OT, @(2)UCLA-2, @(2)Arizona-15, (2)Arizona-6, =(11)Arizona St.-5
- Other losses (5): Florida Gulf Coast-13, =Wisconsin-5, @Washington St.-10, @Oregon-18, @Oregon St.-3
Overview: USC kicked the season off with a horrible 74-61 home loss to Florida Gulf Coast (remember Dunk City, where the Trojans' Andy Enfield used to coach?). After that they never played remotely as bad, and it's a big reason their 2nd half of season metric is so much improved. The Trojans also lost (more reasonably) to 4-seed Tennessee and Wisconsin, and beat 9-seed Auburn before the Pac-12 season began. Even there they didn't really look like an NCAA tournament team until they upset 2-seed UCLA 77-64 in late January. From there they took care of business enough to get it done, never having a losing streak of more than 2 games in a row. And after that first game, 2-seed Arizona was the only team to beat them at home.
Boogie Ellis' 18.0 points per game leads the Trojan while Drew Peterson, a sort of hybrid power forward/point guard, leads the team in both rebounds and assists. **************************************************************
Game Analysis: This is the toughest game to pick yet in the tournament, tighter than any of the 8 vs. 9-seeds. On different metrics, one team or another stands out, so it's hard to choose which metric to trust.
The USC defense is lockdown against 2-pointer but average against the 3, where Michigan State hits almost 40%. USC's offense is vulnerable to turnovers but that's not a focus of the Spartan D, which rebounds well instead. The Trojan defense is solid in blocked shots, a weakness of Michigan State on offense.
USC is a much taller team on average than the Spartans, but for most lineups the difference won't be great.
Vegas Line:
Michigan St by 2
Power rating: spread
Michigan St by 0.3 / 3.6
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Michigan St: 51.2% / 59.8
USC: 48.8% / 40.2
Vegas has a slightly wider line than the Strength power rating, which calls for a toss up or perhaps an overtime win by the Spartans, with a healthy 49% chance of an upset by the 10-seed (historically, 10-seeds win 39% of the time).
Could the final edge be travel distance? As we've brought up before, teams traveling West to East suffer an apparent disadvantage to teams playing close to home, and moreso than teams traveling the other direction. By pure mileage, the Trojans are going over 2,200 miles and crossing three time zones into Columbus, Ohio, while the Spartans are going 250 miles. According to one study the mileage alone gives a bump of over 1 point to Michigan State and penalizes USC almost 2 points. If we count the game a tossup before that, then we have to call it for Michigan State.
Bottom line: All other things being even (and confusing) we're leaning on travel and closer-to-home-court advantage for the Spartans. Your mileage may vary.
Final prediction: Michigan State 70, USC 67
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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