All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
TCU Horned Frogs
Seed: 6
Record: 21-12
Conference: Big Twelve
vs.
Arizona State Sun Devils
Seed: 11
Record: 23-12
Conference: Pac-12
Date: Friday, March 17
Time: 10:05 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Denver, CO
Channel: truTV
TCU vs ASU, the all-acronym championship.
TCU Arizona State
Power Ratings
Strength: #18 Strength: #53
Median: #18 Median: #58
Markov: #19 Markov: #45
Pomeroy: #27 Pomeroy: #52
Offense: #53 Offense: #101
Defense: #20 Defense: #30
BPI: #28 BPI: #72
LRMC: #20 LRMC: #59
Other Measures:
SOS: #30 SOS: #27
Tempo (Offense): #45 Tempo (Offense): #102
Consistency: #350 Consistency: #336
Str + Reliability: #45 Str + Reliability: #76
Str + Potential: #10 Str + Potential: #37
2nd half season: #16 2nd half season: #59
Last 6: #33 Last 6: #46
Injury Mod Rank: #12 Injury Mod Rank: #53
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: NA Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: NA Sweet 16: NA
TCU ranks pretty high in the power ratings for a 6-seed, let alone for a team with 12 losses. They in the top 20 in Strength and the LRMC and the top 30 in Pomeroy and BPI. Arizona State's rankings bumped up quite a bit after their 25-point win over Nevada but they're still just shy of the top 50 in Strength and Pomeroy (the BPI hasn't updated as of right now and the LRMC is stuck permanently on Selection Sunday).
Both teams have solid defensive play, #20 and #30, and both offenses lag, but ASU's lags a lot more; they don't make the top 100 while TCU just misses the top 50. Despite TCU playing in the heralded Big Twelve and ASU in the Pac-12, the Sun Devils have played the tougher schedule surprisingly. Now look at both teams' Consistency ranking. Both are very unpredictable, so this could be a blowout either way. The teams have drawn closer over recent games, and TCU when Mike Miles is in the lineup is nearly a top ten team. Neither team makes the cut in the MegaScreen, so sad.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): =(8)Iowa+13, (11)Providence+13, @(3)Baylor+1, (3)Kansas St.+14, @(1)Kansas+23, (9)West Virginia+4, (2)Texas+2, =(3)Kansas St.+13
- Losses to tournament teams (9): (6)Iowa St.-2, @(2)Texas-4, @(9)West Virginia-9, @(11)Mississippi St.-OT, @(3)Kansas St.-21, (3)Baylor-4, @(6)Iowa St.-11, (1)Kansas-5, =(2)Texas-6
- Other losses (3): Northwestern St.-1, @Oklahoma St.-6, @Oklahoma-14
Overview: Perhaps the most remarkable thing about TCU's season is their first three games. The green bar at "0" is the Horned Frogs' average game level. They beat Arkansas Pine-Bluff at home by a point, beat Lamar by 11 at home, then lost to Northwestern State by a point at home. The Frogs almost started the year as bad as Louisville*! (*the Cardinals lost three home games by a point each to terrible teams to kick off their 4-28 season)
But somehow, suddenly, the team was great. Seriously, wtf? Leading scorer Mike Miles (17.3ppg) missed the Northwestern State loss and #2 scorer Damion Baugh (12.6) missed the first six games, but the team was suddenly good at game four against Louisiana Monroe, a 95-60 win. Two games later they beat 8-seed Iowa 79-66, then 11-seed Providence 75-62. And in early January, 3-seed Baylor 88-87 on the road. How does this happen? No wonder the team's Consistency rating is #350—a lot of it is due to those first three games!
In any case after the 13-1 start TCU went 8-11, losing to pretty much the whole Big Twelve plus 11-seed Mississippi State, but beating 3-seed Kansas State, 1-seed Kansas (83-60 on the road!), 9-seed West Virginia, 2-seed Texas, and 3-seed Kansas State again to insure an at-large bid.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (5): =(12)VCU+4, =(6)Creighton+2, @(2)Arizona+1, =(10)USC+5, =(11)Nevada+25
- Losses to tournament teams (7): @(16)Texas Southern-OT, (2)Arizona-9, (2)UCLA-12, (10)USC-8, @(2)UCLA-18, @(10)USC-3, =(2)Arizona-19
- Other losses (5): @San Francisco-37, @Washington-OT, @Washington St.-17, Oregon-5, Colorado-8
Overview: ASU had a rough first few games, losing to 16-seed play-in Texas Southern in overtime but then played like a top ten team for about a month straight, beating 12-seed VCU and crushing Michigan 87-62 to win the Legends Classic, and beating 6-seed Creighton, too. Then they had an inexplicable, crushing loss to San Francisco, 97-60—and they were never quite the same. They started out 6-1 in the Pac-12 but lost four straight, never winning more than 2 in a row from then on. In all they lost 9 of their last 16—a red flag for me—but barely made the NCAA tournament due to a win over 2-seed Arizona on the road and beating 10-seed USC in the Pac-12 tournament.
The win over 98-73 win over Nevada officially pulls them out of their slump, however. They have new life thanks to the play-in game. ASU is led by Desmond Cambridge with 13.7 points per game.
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Game Analysis: As of Selection Sunday, both TCU and ASU were in official "collapse" territory, which I define as having lost more than half of your last 16 games. It's pretty stark on a chart, and these teams regularly still get in the tournament after starting say, 16-2 and finish 7-9 and normally get a 9-seed. And they regularly lose in the first round, because the teams are so tired of losing and seeing their promising season go down the tubes.
TCU was 14-3 and Arizona State 15-3 when they went 7-9, finishing 21-12 and 22-12 respectively. TCU still got a 6-seed because they play in the tough Big Twelve and have lots of quality wins, while ASU had to settle for a play-in 11-seed because the Pac-12 isn't that great.
But now Arizona State has broken the spell. They're 8-8 over their last 16 games at the start of the first round. Poor TCU is still officially collapsing. But ASU has to be feeling really good now, especially after a dominant 25-point win gives them confidence going into the Round of 64.
It should be an interesting affair, with lots of missed three pointers (both teams make fewer than 32%) and frustrated offense all around. In fact, neither team shoots free throws at better than a 70% clip. TCU shoots the 2 well but ASU's 2-point defense is #6 in the country. If not for the running tempo this game would be a total dud to watch.
Vegas Line:
TCU by 5
Power rating: spread
TCU by 4.3
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
TCU: 61.5%
ASU: 38.5%
11-seeds beat 6-seeds officially 38.5% of the time. That stat goes back to 1985's 64-team expansion. So Arizona State is exactly matching that historical value. But as I keep saying, since 2011 that value has been 54.5%. In other words, from 1985 to 2010 the value was 31.7%, and from 2011 it's been 54.5%. That's the only reason it's up at 38.5% now. People are behind the times, the 11 vs. 6-seed is a 50/50 proposition, closer to a 9-seed vs. an 8-seed than a 10 vs. 7. Support your local 11-seed.
Bottom line: ASU's stunning performance has me convinced they're no longer collapsing. TCU still is. ASU wins.
Final prediction: ASU 62, TCU 58
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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