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Kentucky Wildcats
Seed: 6
Record: 21-11
Conference: SEC
vs.
Providence Friars
Seed: 11
Record: 21-11
Conference: Big East
Date: Friday, March 17
Time: 7:10 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Greensboro, NC
Channel: CBS
Will Kentucky erase the ghost of last year's upset loss?
Kentucky Providence
Power Ratings
Strength: #26 Strength: #45
Median: #38 Median: #41
Markov: #40 Markov: #42
Pomeroy: #28 Pomeroy: #44
Offense: #14 Offense: #16
Defense: #71 Defense: #108
BPI: #15 BPI: #40
LRMC: #28 LRMC: #57
Other Measures:
SOS: #43 SOS: #68
Tempo (Offense): #172 Tempo (Offense): #198
Consistency: #342 Consistency: #179
Str + Reliability: #49 Str + Reliability: #41
Str + Potential: #15 Str + Potential: #52
2nd half season: #30 2nd half season: #51
Last 6: #9 Last 6: #85
Injury Mod Rank: #27 Injury Mod Rank: #41
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: #11 Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #33 Sweet 16: #37
Kentucky's power rating numbers are mostly in the high 20s, with the exception of the BPI at #15. Providence is in the 40s, with the exception of the LRMC at #57. But Kentucky is ahead on all counts. The Median rating is very close—#38 to #41—as is our Markov implementation at #40 to #42. So maybe the Friars are within striking distance. The Pomeroy splits would suggest that the case, as the teams play roughly even on offense while Kentucky's edge is a better defense. But it doesn't look like a gap that can't be bridged.
They've played roughly equal schedule strengths and both play at a moderate pace. But while Providence is a team of average volatility, Kentucky is extremely so. The teams seem to diverge greatly on recent play—the Last 6 games, where Kentucky is a stellar #9 and Providence a dismal #85. But as we'll see, Kentucky's volatility comes into play there, and Providence's score is largely due to one game in that mix.
Kentucky gets a ranking on the short list for the Final Four from the MegaScreen, though their Sweet Sixteen ranking isn't too confident, well outside even top 32 along with Providence.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): (16)Howard+32, @(4)Tennessee+7, (7)Texas A&M+9, @(11)Mississippi St.+3, (4)Tennessee+12, (9)Auburn+32, @(8)Arkansas+9
- Losses to tournament teams (7): =(7)Michigan St.-OT, @(3)Gonzaga-16, =(2)UCLA-10, @(7)Missouri-14, @(1)Alabama-26, (1)Kansas-9, (8)Arkansas-15
- Other losses (4): South Carolina-3, @Georgia-7, Vanderbilt-2, =Vanderbilt-7
Overview: Kentucky started the season ranked #4 in the polls and started off 7-2, winning big against weak teams while falling to 7-seed Michigan State in overtime and to 3-seed Gonzaga 88-72. Then they hit the skids, losing 4 of the next 7 to 2-seed UCLA, 7-seed Missouri, and 1-seed Alabama, but worst of all, to 11-21 South Carolina at home. That's when the eulogies for the Wildcat season were being read, and with good cause. Right on cue they played their best game so far beating 4-seed Tennessee 63-56 on the road and winning 10 of 13 from there. Along the way they were still erratic, losing to 16-16 Georgia but beating the Vols again. At the end an incredible 86-54 win over 9-seed Auburn was followed by a bad home loss to Vanderbilt which was followed by a road win over 8-seed Arkansas which was followed by yet another loss to Vandy. Kentucky just can't buy any consistency, so what they do next is anyone's guess: Final Four or First Round exit.
There's no doubt the Wildcats have amazing talent, and Oscar Tshiebwe is one of the nation's best, averaging 16.5 points per game and 13.1 rebounds.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (3): (2)Marquette+OT, (4)Connecticut+12, (6)Creighton+OT
- Losses to tournament teams (8): =(5)Miami FL-10, @(6)TCU-13, @(6)Creighton-6, @(2)Marquette-8, @(3)Xavier-OT, @(4)Connecticut-18, (3)Xavier-5, =(4)Connecticut-7
- Other losses (3): =Saint Louis-3, @St. John's-5, Seton Hall-24
Overview: Providence started slow at 5-3 with losses to 5-seed Miami, Saint Louis, and 6-seed TCU. But then they seemingly kicked into high gear, winning games by wider margins and beating good teams (2-seed Marquette, 4-seed UConn) on a 9-game win streak. After that the Friars pretty much lost to every really good team they played in the Big East but the losses were competitive—until the 2nd to last game vs. Seton Hall, an 82-58 home loss. That game was a complete aberration unlike the rest of their losses, and it drags down their "last 6 games" stat unfairly. It's true, though, that in their last 15 games they only beat one tournament team—6-seed Creighton, in double overtime at home—but only two of those losses were not to tourney teams.
Providence's counterpart to Kentucky's Oscar Tshiebwe is forward Bryce Hopkins who averages 16.1 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. He's not quite as big but plays a big game.
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Game Analysis: Kentucky's height could bother Providence; or rather, Providence's lack of height could be a problem for them. Mainly it's the guards that are shorter for Providence, but no starter is over 6-8.
Both teams have very good offensive play and much less impressive play on defense. The teams are similarly mediocre at shooting the ball but both are great offensive rebounding teams—Kentucky is #2 in the nation while Providence is in the top 20. Neither team shoots an abundance of three-pointers. Providence gets to the line a lot where they shoot 74.5%; Kentucky doesn't get there too often and shoots just 70%. The Friars are vulnerable to blocked shots while Kentucky is nearly immune (#2 in the nation).
Defensively neither team forces turnovers much and neither is great at defending shots, though Kentucky is better here than Providence. Ultimately the teams play about the same kind of offense and defense, and roughly the same level. Kentucky's defensive efficiency is better than Providence's, sure, but the Wildcats are so variable it's hard to predict how they'll do.
Kentucky's situation is awkward after last year's big upset loss and this year's struggles. You could say that they'll be very determined to not get upset again and won't take anything for granted. But you can also say this: if last year's team—which was much better—couldn't beat a 15-seed, why is it hard to believe this year's erratic team can't lose to an 11-seed?
Providence's ratings are skewed lower by their early games, just as Kentucky's rating is skewed higher. In the end, they're about the same—Kentucky just has a lot more upside and downside.
Vegas Line:
Kentucky by 4
Power rating: spread
Kentucky by 2.4
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Kentucky: 53.7%
Providence: 46.3%
Despite the seedings both Vegas and especially Strength see a close contest, made closer by Kentucky's crazy variability which provides a lot of downside games for Providence to "win." The normal 6-seed wins 38.5% of the time and Providence's 46% is well ahead of that (though still shy of the 54.5% chance the 11-seeds have had since 2011).
Bottom line: When in doubt, pick the 11-seed. And there's enough doubt here, even just from the game-comparison numbers being close. Providence had one terrible game late but that's out of character. Kentucky had some great games late in the season but they could do just about anything in one given game. Thinking "they won't lose in the first round two years in a row" means they can.
Final prediction: Providence 74, Kentucky 72
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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