All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Iowa State Cyclones
Seed: 6
Record: 19-13
Conference: Big Twelve
vs.
Pittsburgh Panthers
Seed: 11
Record: 23-11
Conference: ACC
Date: Friday, March 17
Time: 3:10 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Greensboro, NC
Channel: truTV
Pitt has one upset under their belt, can they make it two in three days?
Iowa State Pittsburgh
Power Ratings
Strength: #16 Strength: #75
Median: #20 Median: #59
Markov: #23 Markov: #61
Pomeroy: #23 Pomeroy: #77
Offense: #96 Offense: #24
Defense: #8 Defense: #135
BPI: #25 BPI: #67
LRMC: #26 LRMC: #72
Other Measures:
SOS: #7 SOS: #89
Tempo (Offense): #305 Tempo (Offense): #152
Consistency: #294 Consistency: #319
Str + Reliability: #28 Str + Reliability: #88
Str + Potential: #16 Str + Potential: #54
2nd half season: #18 2nd half season: #79
Last 6: #51 Last 6: #104
Injury Mod Rank: #35 Injury Mod Rank: #82
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: NA Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #31 Sweet 16: #42
Iowa State's numbers as a 6-seed are pretty good, while Pitt is a pretty poor 11-seed—though they had to earn it with a play-in win against a better Mississippi State team. Iowa State ranks in the mid-20s in most of the power ratings but is #16 in Strength, which is 4-seed level. Their Median ranking and Markov chain rank are mid-20s as well, so Strength is the outlier here. Pitt is pretty similar in all the power ratings, in the 70s, though the Median and Markov both raise them to around #60. Either way, the Cyclones have the advantage in every ranking by almost 40 positions.
Matching up the offensive and defensive play the teams are opposites: Iowa State has a great (top ten) defense and poor (#96) offense, while Pitt's offensive play is top 25 level but they really lag on D at #135. So both sides of the court should be pretty even, with a top 25 battle when Pitt has the ball, and lackluster play when Iowa State does. Still, in both scenarios the Cyclones have the edge.
Iowa State has played an absolutely killer schedule at #7 while Pitt's schedule hasn't been all that tough overall. The ACC isn't nearly as good as the Big Twelve and their pre-conference slate was easier, too. Iowa State's tempo is quite a bit slower than Pitt's and both teams are fairly inconsistent—and in particular at the end of the season as we'll see. Iowa State's Strength rating over the last six games plunges into the 50s while Pitt's falls to below #100. Fair to say neither team is at their best right now. Pitt's Strength corrected for Injury is lower than when they had John Hugley, and Iowa State is worse when they play with the dismissed Caleb Grill.
Both teams make the MegaScreen's Sweet 16 rankings, well outside the top 16 however.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): (3)Baylor+15, @(6)TCU+2, (2)Texas+11, (3)Kansas St.+4, (1)Kansas+15, (6)TCU+11, @(3)Baylor+15, =(3)Baylor+6
- Losses to tournament teams (9): =(4)Connecticut-18, @(8)Iowa-19, @(1)Kansas-2, @(7)Missouri-17, @(9)West Virginia-5, @(3)Kansas St.-6, @(2)Texas-18, (9)West Virginia-3, =(1)Kansas-13
- Other losses (4): @Oklahoma St.-2, @Texas Tech-OT, Oklahoma St.-8, Oklahoma-11
Overview: Iowa State at one point was on top of the world. The Cyclones were the first team to beat pre-season #1 North Carolina, and in early January they were 13-2 after beating Texas Tech 84-50, and looked like a potential 1-seed if they kept playing like that. Their next seven games were up and down: almost beating 1-seed Kansas on the road, then beating 2-seed Texas at home; losing to Oklahoma State but beating 3-seed Kansas State; falling to 7-seed Missouri in the Big Twelve Challenge and in overtime to Texas Tech; and beating 1-seed Kansas at home. But the Cyclones lost 6 of their next 7 games. They beat 3-seed Baylor twice convincingly at the end before falling again to Kansas. They ended up a 6-seed.
Iowa State is led by Jaren Holmes' 13.4 points per game. Third-leading scorer Caleb Grill (9.5) was dismissed from the team in early March.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): (16)Fairleigh Dickinson+22, @(7)Northwestern+29, @(11)N.C. State+8, (4)Virginia+3, (5)Miami FL+3, =(11)Mississippi St.+1
- Losses to tournament teams (5): (9)West Virginia-25, =(12)VCU-4, @(5)Duke-8, @(5)Miami FL-2, =(5)Duke-27
- Other losses (6): =Michigan-31, @Vanderbilt-1, Clemson-1, Florida St.-7, @Virginia Tech-7, @Notre Dame-7
Overview: Pittsburgh peaked early. Not really early, when they lost to 9-seed West Virginia 81-56 and to Michigan 91-60. But several games later, after they had destroyed 7-seed Northwestern 87-58 on the road, and won early ACC games vs. 11-seed NC State and 4-seed Virginia, as well as pre-season #1 North Carolina. Things continued to go well until the loss to Florida State at home; even though they rallied for a 6-game win streak, it included most of the ACC's worst teams—Louisville, FSU, BC. Another bad loss—Notre Dame—hit them late, and they played their worst in losing 96-69 to Duke in the ACC tournament. They barely made the Big Dance and made the most of it by beating fellow 11-seed Mississippi State, however.
Blake Hinson leads the team with 15.5 points and 6.1 rebounds per game.
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Game Analysis: What do we make of Iowa State's "slump" at the end? How to you characterize a team that loses 11 of its last 17 games—with all six wins over NCAA tournament teams? Or a team that loses 5 of its last 7—with those two wins over Baylor? The Big Twelve is so tough it's hard to put this into perspective. What is a "slump" in the Big Twelve? Of the 11 games they lost, 7 were to tournament teams; 5 were to non-qualifiers or teams outside Pomeroy's top 50 (Missouri). So there were some "bad" losses there, and three losses were home losses which is never a good thing.
Pitt's slump is more easily explained by the fact that Pitt isn't very good. They had a lot of "gimme" games in the ACC—Louisville (x2), Notre Dame, Georgia Tech (3x), Florida State (x2), Boston College—and managed to lose a couple of times. That's almost half their conference schedule is cupcakes. Compared to the Big Twelve it's a walk in the park.
The matchup is interesting because one team (Pitt) plays great offense and terrible defense, while the other (Iowa State) plays great defense and terrible offense. That lines up both teams' strengths against each other, as well as the weaknesses. Iowa State has an edge in each case, but in both cases there is an "equality" in that, when Pitt has the ball it's two good teams facing off, and when Iowa State has the ball it's two very mediocre teams. So let's look at each matchup:
When Pitt has the ball Iowa State's defense is going to try to create turnovers, but Pitt doesn't get the ball stolen often. The Cyclones tend to foul a lot on defense, and Pitt shoots almost 76% from the line. The Panthers shoot the ball well while Iowa State doesn't defend all that well; their defense is based on turnovers, and blocking shots—an area where Pitt's offense is vulnerable. Both teams rebound fairly well at this end of the court, Iowa State a bit better.
When Iowa State has the ball, they tend to turn it over quite a bit, but Pitt's defense rarely steals the ball so that problem is mitigated. Pitt's D fouls an average amount of the time but maybe they should foul more, as Iowa State shoots just 67% from the line. Pitt's not a great shot-defending team but Iowa State is a poor shooting team. They do rebound very well, a big advantage they have over the Panthers on this end of the court.
In the end it looks like both offenses should find success—Pitt because their offense is good, Iowa State because Pitt's defense is even worse than the Cyclone O. Iowa State's shot blocking on defense and rebounding on offense are their main edges. In a close game, however, there is a big discrepancy in free throw percentage, 75.7% to 67.4%.
Vegas Line:
Iowa State by 4
Power rating: spread
Iowa State by 6.2
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Iowa State: 64.0%
Pittsburgh: 36.0%
Vegas has this game pretty close, 2 points closer than the Strength power rating, which gives Pitt a 36% chance to pull off the upset. Historically 11-seeds are at a 38.5% clip so it's pretty similar. Note that since 2011 11-seeds have won 54.5% of these games.
Bottom line: Iowa State has a slight edge on both sides of the court but their slower offense will keep the game close by limiting possessions. Still, both offenses will find a path to success. If it stays close, then Pitt has the edge in free throws, either to seal the game or foul at the end and put the Cyclones on the line. I'm basically taking every 11-seed when possible this year, and there's a path to victory for the Panthers, especially after winning the play-in game.
Final prediction: Pittsburgh 72, Iowa State 70
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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