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Creighton Bluejays
Seed: 6
Record: 21-12
Conference: Big East
vs.
NC State Wolfpack
Seed: 11
Record: 23-10
Conference: ACC
Date: Friday, March 17
Time: 4:00pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Denver, CO
Channel: TNT
Protip: both nicknames are one word. Bluejays and Wolfpack.
Creighton NC State
Power Ratings
Strength: #13 Strength: #47
Median: #12 Median: #44
Markov: #14 Markov: #45
Pomeroy: #13 Pomeroy: #55
Offense: #28 Offense: #37
Defense: #15 Defense: #85
BPI: #11 BPI: #45
LRMC: #14 LRMC: #51
Other Measures:
SOS: #13 SOS: #82
Tempo (Offense): #131 Tempo (Offense): #84
Consistency: #177 Consistency: #354
Str + Reliability: #12 Str + Reliability: #83
Str + Potential: #19 Str + Potential: #26
2nd half season: #11 2nd half season: #63
Last 6: #39 Last 6: #95
Injury Mod Rank: #9 Injury Mod Rank: #55
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: NA Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #12 Sweet 16: #39
Creighton is a very tough 6-seed per the power ratings; they're closer to a 4-seed in Strength, Pomeroy, and LRMC, and a 3-seed in the BPI. Both their offense and defense are in the top 30, a very good indicator for a deep run. They've played a very challenging schedule and played even better in the 2nd half of the season, save for the last 6 games which is mostly due to a bad final game.
NC State is fairly valued as an 11-seed, ranking around 50th in all the ratings. Their offensive efficiency is decent but their defense is lagging. The Wolfpack's schedule hasn't been the toughest, and they are one of the most inconsistent teams in the country which we'll see graphically later. They've slipped a lot in the 2nd half of the season and especially in the last several games where they played two atrocious outings. Their poorer play corresponds somewhat with the loss of Dusan Mahorcic, which drops their Strength a bit further.
Both teams make our MegaScreen's Sweet 16 rankings but Creighton is solidly on the board while NC State is an afterthought.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (4): =(8)Arkansas+3, (11)Providence+6, (3)Xavier+17, (4)Connecticut+3
- Losses to tournament teams (9): =(2)Arizona-2, @(2)Texas-5, =(11)Arizona St.-2, @(2)Marquette-11, @(4)Connecticut-9, @(3)Xavier-3, @(11)Providence-OT, (2)Marquette-2, =(3)Xavier-22
- Other losses (3): Nebraska-10, =BYU-3, @Villanova-12
Overview: Creighton was an AP poll darling early and at 6-0 they had already beaten 8-seed Arkansas. Then they went on a 6-games skid and all that goodwill was squandered. They really only played one bad game—the home loss to Nebraska—in that stretch which included three 2-seeds (Arizona, Texas, and Marquette) as well as 11-seed ASU, plus BYU in Las Vegas. Two more losses quickly followed to 4-seed UConn and 3-seed Xavier but they held up in the power ratings so their comeback didn't surprise anyone knowledgable. The Bluejays won 8 straight, beating 11-seed Providence, 3-seed Xavier, and 4-seed UConn before hitting a bit more turbulence in the tough Big East. After three solid wins they got beat 82-60 by Xavier in their final outing which stands as their worst game. But they've come back from adversity before.
7-1 center Ryan Kalkbrenner is the team's leading scorer at 15.4 ppg; he was gone for three games during Creighton's 6-game skid, and counting just the game he has played the Bluejays are a top ten team in Strength.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (3): (13)Furman+19, (5)Duke+24, (5)Miami FL+OT
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =(1)Kansas-6, (11)Pittsburgh-8, @(5)Miami FL-7, @(4)Virginia-13, @(5)Duke-4
- Other losses (5): @Clemson-14, @North Carolina-11, @Syracuse-3, Clemson-25, =Clemson-26
Overview: NC State's season trajectory was laid bare in the first four games. Though they won all four, two were great games and two were awful. The great: NC State 99, Austin Peay 50; and NC State 107, FIU 74. The awful: NC State 73, Campbell 76; and NC State 74, Elon 63. The following loss to Kansas was a far better game than the two bad wins. The Wolfpack had three more great games in them: beating 5-seed Duke 84-60; beating Boston College 92-62 on the road; and crushing Virginia Tech 97-77 in the first round of the ACC tournament. Their other horrible games? Losing to Clemson 96-71 at home, and losing to them again, 80-54, in the ACC tournament.
NC State is led by point guard Terquavion Smith's 17.5 points and 4.2 assists.
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Game Analysis: Let's just be blunt: both teams shit the bed in their final game. In fact, NC State shit the bed earlier against Clemson, cleaned it up and then shit the bed against Clemson again three games later. For Creighton this probably means little, as they've recovered from a 6-game losing streak. For NC State, well, what can they do? That's who they are. They played two of their best games in between the bed-shitting sessions.
On defense Creighton has a definite focus: rebound the ball, and don't foul. They're #13 in defensive rebounding and #2 in fewest fouls per opponent shot. They don't go for turnovers, ranking #358 out of 363 teams there. They basically guard the two very well and invite the three, which teams shoot a lot (which leads to a lot of rebounds). NC State isn't a great shooting team so this might play right into Creighton's hands. To win the Wolfpack need to make three pointers; they shoot around 35%.
NC State's defense is weak against 2-pointers which is where Creighton is best, a bad combination. The Jays also shoot the three pretty well. The Wolfpack tend to go for steals and blocks and they rebound well, so that will have to be their strategy. All in all the matchup favors the Bluejays. North Carolina State will have to win by playing a crazy upside game—something never out of the question with them.
11-seeds are great picks. I've been saying it for years and will say it again: 11-seeds are great picks. I'm not doing the math again but since 2011 11-seeds have won 54.5% of the time against 6-seeds (ok I did the math). 14 of 44 have reached the Sweet Sixteen, 5 have made the Elite Eight and 3 the Final Four. Just in 11 tournaments. So take the 11-seed whenever you can. Last year you would have won 3 of 4 games taking every 11-seed to win. And the thing is, the 11-seed doesn't have to be playing very well or be very good, it's just magical. Something to think about.
Vegas Line:
Creighton by 5 1/2
Power rating: spread
Creighton by 5.4
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Creighton: 63.7%
NC State: 36.3%
The Strength power rating and Vegas agree almost exactly. NC State's 36% chance to win matches pretty close to the historical 38.5% odds for an 11-seed to win. But that's since 1985. Since 2011 it's 54.5% for an 11-seed to win.
Bottom line: Blindly taking the 11-seed is not a bad idea at all, especially if you want upset points. So go ahead and take NC State if you want, it's not a terrible idea. I just think that Creighton is going to win. NC State is unpredictable as hell so anything can happen, but I think they just might shit the bed again. You know what they say: shit the bed once, shame on you. Shit the bed twice, shame on me. Shit the bed three times, time to get a new bed.
Final prediction: Creighton 79, NC State 69
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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