All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
San Diego State Aztecs
Seed: 5
Record: 28-6
Conference: Mountain West
vs.
Furman Paladins
Seed: 13
Record: 28-7
Conference: Southern
Date: Saturday, March 18
Time: 12:10 pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Orlando, FL
Channel: CBS
Furman shocked Virginia, can they do the same to the Aztecs?
San Diego State Furman
Power Ratings
Strength: #24 Strength: #91
Median: #19 Median: #88
Markov: #18 Markov: #96
Pomeroy: #14 Pomeroy: #89
Offense: #64 Offense: #33
Defense: #10 Defense: #183
BPI: #24 BPI: #92
LRMC: #17 LRMC: #80
Other Measures:
SOS: #57 SOS: #229
Tempo (Offense): #165 Tempo (Offense): #51
Consistency: #47 Consistency: #206
Str + Reliability: #15 Str + Reliability: #87
Str + Potential: #49 Str + Potential: #88
2nd half season: #24 2nd half season: #67
Last 6: #30 Last 6: #83
Injury Mod Rank: #22 Injury Mod Rank: #90
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: NA Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #26 Sweet 16: #32
San Diego State outclasses Furman in the power ratings—just like Virginia did, of course. And just like Virginia's strength was their defense, so to is the Aztecs play on defense their selling point, while the offense lags a bit. This makes the matchup when Furman has the ball the most compelling play, but SDSU still has a decided edge on both sides of the court.
There are differences in schedule strength, tempo, and consistency between the teams, but San Diego State's tempo isn't super-slow like Virginia's and they're more able to make a comeback if down. A slower tempo favors the underdog but this game won't be as slow as the Virginia game. But while Furman likes to go fast on offense, SDSU's defense locks down and keeps those possessions long (#346 in the country), so it will be interesting to see how that dynamic plays out.
Furman's updated "Last 6" games stat still doesn't show any indication that they're on fire, mostly because they're not except for even more recently, maybe the last 4 games plus the Virginia win? and were probably playing their best basketball in the first half of February.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): (14)Kennesaw St.+34, (11)Nevada+9, (10)Utah St.+10, (10)Boise St.+20, @(10)Utah St.+2, =(10)Utah St.+5, =(12)Charleston+6
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =(2)Arizona-17, =(8)Arkansas-OT, =(5)Saint Mary's-7, @(11)Nevada-9, @(10)Boise St.-6
- Other losses (1): New Mexico-9
Overview: San Diego State had a challenging pre-conference season, beating BYU, Stanford, and Ohio State but losing to tournament teams Arizona (2-seed), Arkansas (8-seed, in overtime), and Saint Mary's (5). They went 5-2 against the qualifiers from the Mountain West in a year when that league was essentially the 7th Major conference. The Aztecs never won more than six games in a row so it's easy to overlook that they finished the season 20-3.
The Aztecs spread scoring out very evenly over 9 players; only guard Matt Bradley averages in double figures (12.9) and against Charleston he indeed was the only Aztec in double figures, leading with 17 points. There were even nine players who scored, so they couldn't have lived up to their billing any better.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (1): =(4)Virginia+4
- Losses to tournament teams (2): =(10)Penn St.-5, @(11)N.C. State-19
- Other losses (5): =Old Dominion-5, High Point-3, @Western Carolina-12, UNC Greensboro-OT, @The Citadel-4
Overview: After playing Penn State close, Furman follow that up very impressively, losing to Old Dominion and then High Point in the pre-conference season. NC State handled them pretty easily, too. But they hit their stride when the competition got easier, and looked like they were becoming unstoppable before a shocking loss to The Citadel brought them down to earth. The Paladins weren't quite as impressive after that but took care of business in the Southern Conference tournament to get a bid.
Furman boasts the best 2-point shooting in the country; leading scorers Mike Bothwell (18.0 ppg) and Jalen Slawson (15.7) both shoot over 60% on 2's. They're only average from behind the arc, however, and they take quite a few 3s. Slawson had 19 points in the win over Virginia, with JP Pegues hitting the 3-pointer that won it in the wild finish.
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Game Analysis: Furman beat Virginia which was impressive, but their offense in that matchup was basically the equal of Virginia's defense. That won't really be the case here, and the Aztecs play better offense than Virginia does to boot. That makes an upset of the 5-seed a more daunting task than upsetting the 4-seed was.
Furman's go-to shots are in 2-point range where they are #4 in the nation in percentage; SDSU's defense is great against 3-pointers (#6) but only average against the two. That gives Furman a clear avenue to score on offense. On defense the Paladins will be challenged but there aren't any glaring discrepancies. This looks like another close game.
Last time around I pointed out that Furman had yet to beat anyone in the tournament field nor any team in the KenPom top 100; the Paladins took care of both against Virginia.
Vegas Line:
SDSU by 6
Power rating: spread
SDSU by 6.7
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
SDSU: 69.1%
Furman: 30.9%
5-seeds beat 13-seeds 84% of the time (16 out of only 19 meetings). Given that, Furman's 31% odds here are pretty good. Vegas has the Aztecs by 6 and Strength pretty much agrees; both are about a point more than Virginia's spread.
Bottom line: Furman beat Virginia by a point; San Diego State is a couple points better than Virginia. It could be close but I had San Diego State beating Virginia this round and still think they'll advance.
Final prediction: San Diego State 71, Furman 69
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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