All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
St. Mary's Gaels
Seed: 5
Record: 26-7
Conference: West Coast
vs.
VCU Rams
Seed: 12
Record: 27-7
Conference: Atlantic 10
Date: Friday, March 17
Time: 2:00 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Albany, NY
Channel: TBS
One heuristic isn't enough to base an upset on, but two? Maybe.
St. Mary's VCU
Power Ratings
Strength: #11 Strength: #68
Median: #14 Median: #54
Markov: #16 Markov: #55
Pomeroy: #11 Pomeroy: #58
Offense: #40 Offense: #140
Defense: #9 Defense: #17
BPI: #18 BPI: #56
LRMC: #15 LRMC: #53
Other Measures:
SOS: #59 SOS: #111
Tempo (Offense): #359 Tempo (Offense): #105
Consistency: #180 Consistency: #122
Str + Reliability: #10 Str + Reliability: #55
Str + Potential: #17 Str + Potential: #74
2nd half season: #14 2nd half season: #35
Last 6: #58 Last 6: #27
Injury Mod Rank: #13 Injury Mod Rank: #59
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: #10 Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #14 Sweet 16: #28
St. Mary's numbers are strong for a 5-seed, with a Strength and Pomeroy ranking of #11 and BPI and LRMC both in the top 20. Their defense is also top ten with a solid offensive efficiency, too. VCU's numbers aren't nearly as good of course but they're solid for a 12-seed: Strength of #68 and all the others in the 50s. Like St. Mary's VCU has a strong defense but their offense is rather poor.
Both teams played a solid schedule and are not terribly inconsistent. But they diverge in Tempo, where St. Mary's is one of the slowest-paced offenses in the nation. VCU is fairly quick.
The Rams got a lot better in the 2nd half of the season and, if you believe the small sample, St. Mary's got a lot worse near the end, enough that VCU is the better team right now. We'll take a look and try to see if those last six games can be representative of a trend or not. Finally, St. Mary's makes the elite short list for the Final Four on the MegaScreen, and both make the Sweet Sixteen list although VCU is quite a ways down.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (4): (12)Oral Roberts+8, (15)Vermont+26, =(5)San Diego St.+7, (3)Gonzaga+OT
- Losses to tournament teams (3): @(1)Houston-5, @(3)Gonzaga-9, =(3)Gonzaga-26
- Other losses (4): =Washington-OT, New Mexico-4, Colorado St.-2, @Loyola Marymount-OT
Overview: St. Mary's started 6-0 against a decent schedule, with wins over 12-seed Oral Roberts and a 63-33 beatdown of North Texas (game 3), and a 76-48 win over Hofstra (game 5). They lost three in a row, however, including a 53-48 loss to 1-seed Houston in Fort Worth, Texas. They beat 5-seed San Diego State in Phoenix but lost to Colorado State at home. The Gaels then won 12 straight, ending with a home win over 3-seed Gonzaga and including a win over the Academy of Art (yes the Academy of Art has a basketball team). They were upset by Loyola Marymount in overtime—their 2nd overtime loss out of 7 total—and fell to Gonzaga twice, road and neutral court. The latter was their worst loss and contributes heavily to their poor "last six games" showing.
Logan Johnson leads the team with 14.7 points per game and 3.7 assists.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (3): =(11)Pittsburgh+4, (14)Kennesaw St.+3, (16)Howard+10
- Losses to tournament teams (2): =(11)Arizona St.-4, @(8)Memphis-15
- Other losses (5): @Temple-10, Jacksonville-11, @Duquesne-9, St. Bonaventure-3, Dayton-4
Overview: VCU started out 5-4 after a terrible home loss to Jacksonville, having already fallen to 11-seed ASU and 8-seed Memphis. After the loss to Duquesne they were 10-5 and started to play really well, winning 6 straight, and then after two more home losses they really hit their stride at the end, winning 9 straight in great fashion (after the first win, a tepid 55-54 win at Rhode Island). This stretch really does seem to justify their solid "last 6 games" rating and make it look justified.
The Rams are led by PG Adrian Baldwin with 12.7 points, 5.9 assists, and 2.2 steals per game.
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Game Analysis: St. Mary's and VCU both play great defense but in different styles. The Rams force turnovers (#6 in the nation) and block shots, still using a lot of the same full-court press strategy that Shaka Smart did years ago but settling into half court a bit earlier. Despite the focus on taking the ball away they still manage to guard both the 3-point line and 2-pointers effectively. The one thing they don't emphasize is rebounding, which is something St. Mary's defense does better than almost every other team (they are literally #2 in that stat). The Gaels also defend shots well and aren't bad at steals and blocks either. It takes a lot to be top ten in defensive efficiency!
St. Mary's offense shoots the ball well, especially 3-pointers, and doesn't turn the ball over much at all. They are a bit vulnerable to blocked shots, however. VCU's offense shoots 2-pointers well but less than 35% from the 3-pt line. They get to the foul line a lot but only shoot 70% there. They are also vulnerable to blocks and turn the ball over quite a bit. No wonder they're only #140 in the nation on offense.
My main concern here is unraveling the recent play of St. Mary's and VCU. The Rams look like they've really got something going over the last eight games of the season. St. Mary's is slumping a bit perhaps but it's hard to tell if this is something that will carry into the first round of the tournament.
Vegas Line:
St. Mary's by 4
Power rating: spread
St. Mary's by 7.4 / 4.5
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
St. Mary's: 69.5% / 61.0%
VCU: 30.5% / 39.0%
The Strength power rating shows St. Mary's a more than 7-point favorite against the Rams, while Vegas calls it a 4-point advantage. Are they docking the Gaels for their recent play, or bumping VCU up for theirs? Perhaps it's a matter of location: the game is being played in Albany, New York, quite a distance from where St. Mary's is located in Moraga, CA (very nearly 3,000 miles). The Gaels have to cross three time zones and—I've covered this in other previews—it has been shown that traveling West to East is bad news for basketball teams. VCU has to go almost 500 miles, a distance with about a half point of benefit. In all it would be nearly a 3 point edge for the Rams, bringing the Strength estimate down to about 4.5 points, and the Gaels % chance to win down to around 61%.
Bottom line: If it were just the Last Six Games stat, OR the traveling West to East, I might say, close but no cigar. But now I say close and have a cigar, VCU, you're going to make the second round (or at least, there's points in picking upsets so it's worth the risk).
Final prediction: VCU 61, St. Mary's 59
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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