All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
San Diego State Aztecs
Seed: 5
Record: 27-6
Conference: Mountain West
vs.
Charleston Cougars
Seed: 12
Record: 31-3
Conference: Colonial
Date: Thursday, March 16
Time: 3:10pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Orlando, FL
Channel: truTV
San Diego State travels across the country to face 31-3 Charleston in Orlando.
San Diego State Charleston
Power Ratings
Strength: #24 Strength: #73
Median: #19 Median: #90
Markov: #18 Markov: #70
Pomeroy: #14 Pomeroy: #73
Offense: #64 Offense: #70
Defense: #10 Defense: #75
BPI: #24 BPI: #63
LRMC: #17 LRMC: #56
Other Measures:
SOS: #57 SOS: #239
Tempo (Offense): #165 Tempo (Offense): #29
Consistency: #47 Consistency: #22
Str + Reliability: #15 Str + Reliability: #36
Str + Potential: #49 Str + Potential: #97
2nd half season: #24 2nd half season: #54
Last 6: #31 Last 6: #53
Injury Mod Rank: #22 Injury Mod Rank: #70
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: NA Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #26 Sweet 16: #34
San Diego State is a really good team by the numbers, while Charleston can almost—but not quite—live up to the billing of its 31-3 record. The Aztecs outclass the Cougars pretty much across the board as expected when a 5-seed takes on a 12-seed. SDSU's offense is shaky enough that Charleston's decent defense can cause problems for them, but nothing like the problems the Aztecs can cause when on defense.
The difference reveals itself in the comparison of Strength of Schedule, where San Diego State is nearly in the top 50 while Charleston isn't near the top 200. And you can see how Charleston acquired their gaudy record: a good team, playing an easy schedule, and playing very consistently. That consistency is how they put together a 20-game winning streak this year, tied for longest of the season for any team.
Both teams are playing well at the end of the season, and Charleston may have found another gear but they're still short of the Aztecs. Neither team comes up on the MegaScreen for Final Four teams but both are on the radar as Sweet Sixteen possibilities, but not probabilities.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): (14)Kennesaw St.+34, (11)Nevada+9, (10)Utah St.+10, (10)Boise St.+20, @(10)Utah St.+2, =(10)Utah St.+5
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =(2)Arizona-17, =(8)Arkansas-OT, =(5)Saint Mary's-7, @(11)Nevada-9, @(10)Boise St.-6
- Other losses (1): New Mexico-9
Overview: San Diego State had a challenging pre-conference season, beating BYU, Stanford, and Ohio State but losing to tournament teams Arizona (2-seed), Arkansas (8-seed, in overtime), and Saint Mary's (5). They went 5-2 against the qualifiers from the Mountain West in a year when that league was essentially the 7th Major conference. The Aztecs never won more than six games in a row so it's easy to overlook that they finished the season 20-3.
The Aztecs spread scoring out very evenly over 9 players; only guard Matt Bradley averages in double figures (12.9).
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (1): (13)Kent St.+2
- Losses to tournament teams (0): None
- Other losses (3): @North Carolina-16, Hofstra-4, @Drexel-1
Overview: Charleston lost early on to North Carolina, 102-86, but then started a winning streak that became tied for the longest of any team this year. Their victims includes tournament-bound Kent State, as well as Virginia Tech (by 2 points), then settled in for a long run of Colonial Athletic teams that were not nearly as threatening. The Cougars lost focus only once, losing back to back conference games, but they regrouped and ended with another win streak, this time 10 and counting.
Five players score in double figures for the Cougars led by Dalton Bolon with 12.3 ppg.
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Game Analysis: Both these teams are very consistent. Charleston won 20 straight games this year, which is possibly only if you're very consistent (being a good team with an easy schedule helps, too). But that same consistency makes it less likely that they can rise to the occasion and get an upset win—especially over a similarly consistent opponent. Another thing working against the Cougars is their fast pace. When there's a talent gap, it's to an underdog's advantage to create fewer possessions, but that would go against the Cougars' nature. They run on offense.
This is a pretty even contest when San Diego State has the ball. When Charleston has the ball, they'll be trying to push the pace as the Aztecs try to keep thinks slow, and their top ten defense has a big edge, particularly in defending 3-pointers and blocking shots. A big intangible advantage the Aztecs have is experience. Their average player has about 3 years of D-I playing experience per Pomeroy, whereas Charleston's average player has just over a year's worth.
Now let's talk travel. Everyone knows about home court advantage, but studies have also been done on the effects of playing closer to home or farther away from home in the NCAA tournament. Charleston is about 380 miles from Orlando, not too close but allegedly enough to give them nearly a 1 point bonus according to some results. San Diego State meanwhile is crossing three time zones and 2,500 and most importantly, traveling West to East. That's a 2 point disadvantage. Add it up and it's like spotting Charleston three points.
Think about it: just a few days ago, what felt like 11am in San Diego is now noon. When the team arrives in Orlando, they're another three hours off for a total of four hours in 5 days. Playing at 3:10pm, it will feel like before noon. This is much better than if the game had been at noon, and they players feel like they're playing at 8:00 in the morning!
Vegas Line:
San Diego State by 5
Power rating: spread
San Diego State by 5.0 (2.0)
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
San Diego State: 68% / 58%
Charleston: 32% / 42%
This is very interesting. Either Vegas is ignoring the travel difference by the teams, or sees SDSU as such a big favorite that they're still at 5 points despite the geography. The interesting thing is the Strength power rating, which of course doesn't look at the map when crunching scores, comes up with a 5 point estimate as well. If we subtract the three points from that total we come up with a 2 point estimate, which is very similar to what the Strength power rating gets if Charleston were playing a home game.
That's enough to boost Charleston's winning chances from 32% to 42%, similar to the up/downgrades seen in the linked study above.
Bottom line: I see this as a very straightforward game between two very consistent teams that should go to plan but is complicated by the travel "penalty" that SDSU gets for flying across the country, adapting to three time zones just a few days after adapting to Daylight Savings Time. With the game in the middle of the day it shouldn't make a huge difference—but it could easily make three points difference. If this were a 50/50 game to start with I'd go with the Cougars. But it's not.
Final prediction: San Diego State 72, Charleston 70
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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