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Miami Hurricanes
Seed: 5
Record: 25-7
Conference: ACC
vs.
Drake Bulldogs
Seed: 12
Record: 27-7
Conference: Missouri Valley
Date: Friday, March 17
Time: 7:25 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Albany, NY
Channel: TBS
Does Miami's fate rest on Norchad Omier, or do their troubles run deeper than that?
Miami Drake
Power Ratings
Strength: #48 Strength: #72
Median: #37 Median: #78
Markov: #31 Markov: #73
Pomeroy: #40 Pomeroy: #66
Offense: #12 Offense: #98
Defense: #132 Defense: #44
BPI: #36 BPI: #55
LRMC: #41 LRMC: #61
Other Measures:
SOS: #84 SOS: #167
Tempo (Offense): #106 Tempo (Offense): #226
Consistency: #74 Consistency: #334
Str + Reliability: #32 Str + Reliability: #91
Str + Potential: #70 Str + Potential: #48
2nd half season: #42 2nd half season: #38
Last 6: #83 Last 6: #22
Injury Mod Rank: #50/85 Injury Mod Rank: #71
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: NA Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #20 Sweet 16: NA
Miami is in general the better team as shown by the power ratings, which is fitting for a 5-seed vs. a 12-seed. They outrank Drake by around 25 spots in Strength and Pomeroy and around 20 in BPI and LRMC. The difference is greater in Median play and in our Markov implementation.
Drake definitely has hope though. Miami's defense is bad: #132 in efficiency, worse than any of Drake's efficiency stats. So even Drake's weakness—their #98 offense—won't be an impediment to getting a win. Their challenge is of course to contain Miami's near-top-ten offense, but at least in terms of ranking "rungs" the difference is about the same as it is on the other end of the court.
Miami is a pretty consistent team while Drake is not. Drake's inconsistency is help in getting an upset, while Miami's consistency is an impediment. But the teams are close enough in Strength—and far enough apart in gameplay variance—that if both teams play a standard deviation or two above normal, Drake is the better team, #48 to #70. Over the long haul Miami is better, but for one game at their best, Drake wins.
The Bulldogs also played better over the 2nd half of the season than Miami, and particularly in the last 6 games. Miami has had a terrible last 4 games and also may have lost a key player; without him they played like the #85 team in the nation. That was for just one game which is not a reliable sample, but we will see that they're playing at that low level for the last several games; it just about matches their "Last 6 games" result. Meanwhile Drake is playing their best basketball of the season.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (5): =(11)Providence+10, (11)N.C. State+7, (4)Virginia+2, (5)Duke+22, (11)Pittsburgh+2
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =(8)Maryland-18, @(11)N.C. State-OT, @(5)Duke-2, @(11)Pittsburgh-3, =(5)Duke-7
- Other losses (2): @Georgia Tech-6, Florida St.-1
Overview: Miami popped off to a 13-1 start, beating 11-seed Providence in the pre-conference season as well as UCF and Rutgers while losing only to 8-seed Maryland. They beat 11-seed NC State and 4-seed Virginia before a stunning loss to 15-18 Georgia Tech started a 4-4 skid. All those losses were on the road and the Canes marched on, winning 7 straight including an 81-59 win over 5-seed Duke (the only tournament team in that stretch). Then came the FSU debacle, their first home loss, to a 9-23 team, on a last-second heartbreaking shot by their hated rival. It seems to have done something to them.
The Hurricanes didn't play well at all at the very end. It wasn't just the Duke loss in the final game—where they lost Norchad Omier early in the contest—but all of their last four games: the home loss to Florida State, the 2-point home win over 11-seed Pitt, the 2-point win over Wake Forest—all were basically as bad as the Duke loss.
Omier is a key defensive player, averaging 1.3 blocks and 9.7 rebounds along with being the Hurricanes' #3 scorer at 13.6ppg. Their overall scoring leader is senior guard Isaiah Wong who leads the team with 16.2 points, 3.4 assists and 1.4 steals.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (2): (13)Louisiana+12, =(11)Mississippi St.+6
- Losses to tournament teams (0): None
- Other losses (7): @Indiana St.-2, @Richmond-30, @Saint Louis-8, @Missouri St.-3, @Southern Illinois-4, Missouri St.-OT, @Bradley-12
Overview: Drake was a very consistent team early on through 9 games, win or lose (the one loss was to Indiana State). They beat 12-seed Louisiana 76-64 at home during this time. Then they lost to Richmond 82-52, by far their worst performance of the year. That carried over to a loss to St. Louis, but then the Bulldogs beat previously undefeated Mississippi State 58-52 in Lincoln (followed by a ridiculous 124-48 beatdown of non-D-I St. Ambrose). In any case, the Bulldogs were no longer a consistent team, they were becoming very unpredictable, alternating poor losses with their best performances (beating Bradley 86-61 in game 19, and Evansville 97-61) before starting a 10-game win streak that was just as up and down. Bradley beat the Bulldogs again, 73-61 just before the MVC tournament where Drake won three games, culminating in a 77-51 win over that same Bradley team, a 38 point turnaround from just a week earlier.
The Bulldogs' Tucker DeVries leads with 19.0 points per game. Drake is a very short team and plays three small guards most of the time along with the 6-7 DeVries.
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Game Analysis: An interesting matchup where both teams have the advantage on offense—due to Miami's strong offensive play as well as their terrible defensive play.
Let's start with Miami having the ball. Drake's defense is focused on forcing a miss and getting the rebound—they're #3 in the nation in defensive rebounding despite having a very small lineup. They don't go for blocks or steals. Miami shoots the ball very well, especially from inside the 3-point line where they take most of their shots. They shoot well enough that it probably disrupts Drake's plan to get a lot of rebounds.
Drake shoots the ball pretty well themselves; the problem is that when they miss they are terrible at rebounding on the offensive side of the court. So it's make their first shot or go home. They don't get the ball stolen or have their shot blocked often, and Miami's defense doesn't do those things well—in fact, they don't do a lot well on defense. Except avoid fouling, which is good because Drake shoots around 77% (Miami hits 78%). Drake may find success on offense because they will probably make a lot of shots; they shoot well and Miami doesn't defend well. Note that Miami's defensive play only gets worse without Omier, if he is unavailable.
So it looks like a quality game on one side of the court, and less so on the other side. The exception is the free throw line, where both teams excel. Both teams are veteran squads, too, with almost 3 years of experience on average.
Vegas Line:
Miami by 2
Power rating: spread
Miami by 2.1
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Miami: 55.9%
Drake: 44.1%
This is a close game; Vegas and the Strength power rating agree on only a 2 point advantage for the 'Canes. Game by game this translates into about a 56% chance for Miami to win; 5-seeds normally win 64% of the time, so this one is even closer than normal.
If we use Miami's 1-game sample when Norchad Omier was out (the last game vs. Duke) then Drake becomes a 1.7 point favorite. Again that's a 1-game sample.
Bottom line: It's not really a matter of whether Omier plays or not. Miami has been just as bad the three previous games when they had him. They've been lackluster since the Florida State game and pretty consistently. Normally the Last 6 games—or in this case the Last 4 games—are a rough guideline with ups and downs to figure out. But Miami has been sleepwalking and needs to wake up. If Omier is out that just makes things worse, but I take Drake regardless as they've thrived since their last loss rather than stagnated.
Final prediction: Drake 78, Miami 70
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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