All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Duke Blue Devils
Seed: 5
Record: 26-8
Conference: ACC
vs.
Oral Roberts Golden Eagles
Seed: 12
Record: 30-4
Conference: Summit
Date: Thursday, March 16
Time: 7:10pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Orlando, FL
Channel: CBS
The Blue Devils could really go somewhere—if they get past the Golden Eagles.
Duke Oral Roberts
Power Ratings
Strength: #21 Strength: #51
Median: #29 Median: #60
Markov: #22 Markov: #84
Pomeroy: #21 Pomeroy: #56
Offense: #42 Offense: #23
Defense: #24 Defense: #107
BPI: #16 BPI: #83
LRMC: #21 LRMC: #38
Other Measures:
SOS: #60 SOS: #205
Tempo (Offense): #294 Tempo (Offense): #27
Consistency: #340 Consistency: #317
Str + Reliability: #46 Str + Reliability: #66
Str + Potential: #12 Str + Potential: #43
2nd half season: #25 2nd half season: #48
Last 6: #7 Last 6: #66
Injury Mod Rank: #23 Injury Mod Rank: #49
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: #7 Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #10 Sweet 16: #9
Duke has the profile of a solid 5-seed and they're playing better than ever right now, ranking in the top ten over the last several games. Oral Roberts is pretty strong for a 12-seed and probably should have been higher but their schedule didn't allow for the opportunity. But what can we say about these teams when their level of Consistency is so low? It's that atmosphere that leads to upsets.
When Oral Roberts has the ball these are evenly matched teams, both in the top 25 at that moment. The mismatch is when Duke has the ball as the Eagles' defense isn't in the top 100. Tempos will clash too as Duke takes its time and Oral Roberts wants to go fast.
The new MegaScreen rankings show Duke on the shortlist of possible Final Four teams. Oral Roberts didn't qualify. But for the Sweet Sixteen? The Golden Eagles are one spot ahead of the Blue Devils. Now, you can screen for Final Four teams but you have to play the other games to get there, and Oral Roberts remarkably looks like a slightly stronger Sweet Sixteen candidate than Duke.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): =(3)Xavier+7, =(8)Iowa+12, (11)Pittsburgh+8, (5)Miami FL+2, (11)N.C. State+4, =(11)Pittsburgh+27, =(5)Miami FL+7, =(4)Virginia+10
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =(1)Kansas-5, =(1)Purdue-19, @(11)N.C. State-24, @(5)Miami FL-22, @(4)Virginia-OT
- Other losses (3): @Wake Forest-11, @Clemson-8, @Virginia Tech-3
Overview: Duke's season has been up and down in their first year under Jon Scheyer. But at the end it's all sunshine and rainbows as the team seems to get better with each game. Will it end in another Final Four berth for the Blue Devils?
Duke beat 3-seed Xavier and 8-seed Iowa early, but also lost to Kansas and Purdue—losses which seem excusable given that both those teams ended up as 1-seeds. But the Blue Devils lost to some pretty mediocre teams in ACC competition, like Wake Forest, Clemson, and Virginia Tech. They hit a low at Miami, losing 81-59, but soon after started their 9-game-and-counting win streak. It started slow vs. poor teams like Notre Dame and Louisville but they beat four tournament teams in the last 5 games.
7-foot Center Kyle Filipowski leads the team with 15.4 points and 9.0 rebounds per game, and he's only one of two starting 7-footers on the nation's tallest team.
**************************************************************
- Wins vs. tournament teams (1): @(16)Texas Southern+18
- Losses to tournament teams (3): @(5)Saint Mary's-8, @(1)Houston-38, @(10)Utah St.-10
- Other losses (1): @New Mexico-7
Overview: The only thing that kept Oral Roberts from having a record 27-game win streak this season was a hastily scheduled game, not on the original schedule, that had the Golden Eagles travel to play New Mexico on less than two weeks' notice. They lost a competitive game to the Lobos, who went on to slide off the bubble and become Oral Roberts' only non-tournament-team loss. They also fell to 5-seed St. Mary's and 10-seed Utah State in close games (at least at the end they were close) while 1-seed Houston beat them 83-45. But if losing to tournament teams early, then going undefeated in your weak conference is a crime, then Stephen Curry and Davidson were guilty of exactly that before their Elite Eight run in 2008.
The Curry comparison is extra interesting because of Oral Roberts' star, Max Abmas, who like Curry is a big scorer (22.2 points per game).
**************************************************************
Game Analysis: Two years ago Oral Roberts made a Sweet Sixteen run with Max Abmas as the nation's leading scorer. He's not quite as prolific this year but still averages above 20 and after missing out last year the team is ready to go for it again. And unlike that year when they were a 15-seed, this year they're actually a really good team, and it won't be a shock if they win a few games.
Oral Roberts turns the ball over less than any team in the country, and they're a top ten shooting team. True, that's against mediocre competition but shooting is shooting. Can we at least admit that their top ten free throw shooting is legit? I think Oral Roberts causes fits for the Duke defense. It's Oral Roberts' own defense that is the problem, and Duke will be coming back to score in turn every time. They're the tallest team in the country and Oral Roberts is a very short team—except for 7-5 center Connor Vanover, who might have to play the game of his life.
There's no question Duke has more upside than Oral Roberts in the long-term. But the First Round of the NCAA tournament is littered with teams that would have made the Final Four if they had gotten past their first game. The question is, will Duke become one of those? They're playing great right now, seemingly better every game, and with their full lineup healthy they "are 17-1" as I keep hearing. But all it takes is one down game.
Oral Roberts played like their lives depended on it in the Summit League final and didn't dare let up for a second, winning 92-58. They didn't want to miss the tournament again. They're hungry all over again, and they're very used to winning this time around. Maybe Duke is hungry too? It's going to be a good game.
Vegas Line:
Duke by 6 1/2
Power rating: spread
Duke by 3.4
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Duke: 58.7%
Oral Roberts: 41.3%
Surprisingly the Vegas line is a lot wider than the Strength power rating line, which itself seems extremely low but remember, Oral Roberts is a good team now. Duke's 59% chance to win is a bit lower than the historical 64% a 5-seed has of beating a 12-seed.
Bottom line: If Duke wins this game they could go to the Final Four. I can't really say the same thing about Oral Roberts. But while Duke no longer has Coach K, Oral Roberts still has Max Abmas. I look for a crazy, high-scoring back and forth game, at least, I hope for it.
Final prediction: Oral Roberts 81, Duke 80
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
Comments