All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
UConn Huskies
Seed: 4
Record: 26-8
Conference: Big East
vs.
St. Mary's Gaels
Seed: 5
Record: 27-7
Conference: West Coast
Date: Sunday, March 19
Time: 6:10 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Albany, NY
Channel: TNT
The #1 offensive rebounding team meets the #2 defensive rebounding team.
UConn St. Mary's
Power Ratings
Strength: #6 Strength: #11
Median: #7 Median: #14
Markov: #4 Markov: #16
Pomeroy: #4 Pomeroy: #11
Offense: #6 Offense: #40
Defense: #18 Defense: #9
BPI: #6 BPI: #18
LRMC: #4 LRMC: #15
Other Measures:
SOS: #51 SOS: #59
Tempo (Offense): #230 Tempo (Offense): #359
Consistency: #218 Consistency: #180
Str + Reliability: #4 Str + Reliability: #10
Str + Potential: #7 Str + Potential: #17
2nd half season: #13 2nd half season: #15
Last 6: #5 Last 6: #48
Injury Mod Rank: #5 Injury Mod Rank: #13
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: NA Final 4: #10
Sweet 16: #6 Sweet 16: #14
UConn is about the best 4-seed you'll find. For a while they were the best team in the country, no doubt, and despite losing quite a few they remain in the top ten in every power rating, including #4 in Pomeroy and LRMC. At #6 in Strength and BPI, they are at least as good as a 2-seed. Another sign of how good they really are is the fact that both their offense and defense rank in the top 20 in Pomeroy.
Then there's St. Mary's, a 5-seed in name but also having the profile of a better seed, maybe about a 3. The Gaels are close to UConn in Strength and Pomeroy and have better defensive play, though their offense lags the Huskies. This game is more appropriate for a Sweet Sixteen contest, not a Round of 32 clash to decide who gets there (the West is clearly the most stacked region and it's not even close).
Both teams made the MegaScreen's Sweet Sixteen with UConn way ahead, but only St. Mary's showed up as a possible Final Four team interestingly.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): =(1)Alabama+15, =(6)Iowa St.+18, (6)Creighton+9, (2)Marquette+15, (11)Providence+18, =(11)Providence+7, =(13)Iona+24
- Losses to tournament teams (6): @(3)Xavier-10, @(11)Providence-12, @(2)Marquette-6, (3)Xavier-3, @(6)Creighton-3, =(2)Marquette-2
- Other losses (2): St. John's-11, @Seton Hall-1
Overview: As mentioned UConn was the best team in the country until late December; they had beaten 1-seed Alabama 82-67and 6-seed Iowa State in Portland and raced to a 14-0 start. But around game 13 they downshifted a gear it seems; the wins over Georgetown (84-73) and Villanova (74-66) at home weren't dominant. Sure enough, losses followed, most but not all to tournament teams. In all they lost 6 of 8 before slowly recovering their mojo. Finally at the end they put together another solid win streak of six games that ended in a 2-point loss to 2-seed Marquette. Have they truly regained their early season form?
6-9 forward Adama Sanogo is the team's leader in points (16.8) and rebounds (7.3). The Huskies are a tall team, who often have every player on the court at 6-5 or over and also have a 7-2 backup center. UConn beat Ioan behind Sanogo's 28 points (on 13 of 17 shooting).
**************************************************************
- Wins vs. tournament teams (5): (12)Oral Roberts+8, (15)Vermont+26, =(5)San Diego St.+7, (3)Gonzaga+OT, =(12)VCU+12
- Losses to tournament teams (3): @(1)Houston-5, @(3)Gonzaga-9, =(3)Gonzaga-26
- Other losses (4): =Washington-OT, New Mexico-4, Colorado St.-2, @Loyola Marymount-OT
Overview: St. Mary's started 6-0 against a decent schedule, with wins over 12-seed Oral Roberts and a 63-33 beatdown of North Texas (game 3), and a 76-48 win over Hofstra (game 5). They lost three in a row, however, including a 53-48 loss to 1-seed Houston in Fort Worth, Texas. They beat 5-seed San Diego State in Phoenix but lost to Colorado State at home. The Gaels then won 12 straight, ending with a home win over 3-seed Gonzaga and including a win over the Academy of Art (yes the Academy of Art has a basketball team). They were upset by Loyola Marymount in overtime—their 2nd overtime loss out of 7 total—and fell to Gonzaga twice, road and neutral court. The latter was their worst loss and contributes heavily to their poor "last six games" showing.
Logan Johnson leads the team with 14.7 points per game and 3.7 assists. The Gaels bounced back from the Gonzaga loss by beating VCU 63-51 led by Alex Ducas and Mitchell Saxon scoring 17 each.
**************************************************************
Game Analysis: What a great game. Too bad it's coming so early, but there's going to be a lot of that in the West region: teams playing seemingly a round too early.
UConn's claim to fame is being #1 in offensive rebounding, which is what powers their offense along with pretty good shooting. But St. Mary's counters with being the #2 defensive rebounding team! Something's gotta give. The tiebreaker here is probably SOS, because this stat isn't corrected for opponents. But UConn's SOS of #51 and St. Mary's #59 are pretty close, too, so the stats are comparable. UConn is a bit vulnerable to steals on offense so that might give the Gaels an edge on this side of the court.
When St. Mary's has the ball UConn has a big advantage in defending shots, as the Gaels are a decent but not great shooting team. The Huskies tend to foul a lot but the Gaels shoots just 69% from the foul line. They're vulnerable to blocked shots, too, and UConn's defense deals those out a lot.
UConn will be playing very close to home in Albany, whereas St. Mary's is three time zones away from home.
Vegas Line:
UConn by 3 1/2
Power rating: spread
UConn by 3.3
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Connecticut: 59.9%
St. Mary's: 40.1%
4-seeds win about 55% of the time so UConn's odds are actually a bit ahead of history's verdict. Vegas almost exactly matches Strength with their estimate, but I wonder if a bit of home court edge is appropriate due to the huge distance discrepancy between these teams (130 miles vs. 2,900 miles). The Gaels should be over their jet lag by now but I'm sure crowd support is going to the Huskies.
Bottom line: A great matchup, too bad both teams can't advance to the Sweet Sixteen. I kind of hate these things. Even though I picked St. Mary's to get upset, it was a clear upset pick, they're a great team. But I had UConn advancing and pick them here, with close-to-home court urging them on.
Final prediction: UConn 67, St. Mary's 60
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
Comments