All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Connecticut Huskies
Seed: 4
Record: 25-8
Conference: Big East
vs.
Iona Gaels
Seed: 13
Record: 27-7
Conference: Metro Atlantic
Date: Friday, March 17
Time: 4:30 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Albany, NY
Channel: TBS
It's the return of Rick Pitino as UConn and Iona meet in Albany.
UConn Iona
Power Ratings
Strength: #6 Strength: #75
Median: #7 Median: #63
Markov: #4 Markov: #67
Pomeroy: #4 Pomeroy: #74
Offense: #6 Offense: #79
Defense: #18 Defense: #67
BPI: #6 BPI: #51
LRMC: #4 LRMC: #39
Other Measures:
SOS: #51 SOS: #177
Tempo (Offense): #230 Tempo (Offense): #28
Consistency: #218 Consistency: #310
Str + Reliability: #4 Str + Reliability: #84
Str + Potential: #7 Str + Potential: #56
2nd half season: #13 2nd half season: #100
Last 6: #5 Last 6: #49
Injury Mod Rank: #5 Injury Mod Rank: #74
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: NA Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #6 Sweet 16: #23
UConn is about the best 4-seed you'll find. For a while they were the best team in the country, no doubt, and despite losing quite a few they remain in the top ten in every power rating, including #4 in Pomeroy and LRMC. At #6 in Strength and BPI, they are at least as good as a 2-seed. Their decline from #1 can be seen in their 2nd half of season ranking at #13; this averages out to #6 in the end. But their Last 6 Games ranking of #5 suggests they've returned to their top form, at least for that short sample. Another sign of how good they really are is the fact that both their offense and defense rank in the top 20 in Pomeroy, a rare thing in the field (only three other teams meet this criteria).
Iona is decent for a 13-seed at #75 in Strength and #74 in Pomeroy. They're a lot better for some reason in the BPI at #51, and better still by the LRMC at #39 (interestingly this isn't reflected in our Markov chain model where they are #67). Their Offense and Defensive efficiency rankings pale compared to UConn's top 20 figures. Pitino's Gaels play very fast on offense, are pretty wildly inconsistent, and as a result they look worse in the 2nd half of the season (due to one bad slump) but a lot better during recent play. And mostly due to Pitino's track record they earned a spot in the MegaScreen's Sweet Sixteen rankings at #23; UConn is at #6.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): =(1)Alabama+15, =(6)Iowa St.+18, (6)Creighton+9, (2)Marquette+15, (11)Providence+18, =(11)Providence+7
- Losses to tournament teams (6): @(3)Xavier-10, @(11)Providence-12, @(2)Marquette-6, (3)Xavier-3, @(6)Creighton-3, =(2)Marquette-2
- Other losses (2): St. John's-11, @Seton Hall-1
Overview: As mentioned UConn was the best team in the country until late December; they had beaten 1-seed Alabama 82-67and 6-seed Iowa State in Portland and raced to a 14-0 start. But around game 13 they downshifted a gear it seems; the wins over Georgetown (84-73) and Villanova (74-66) at home weren't dominant. Sure enough, losses followed, most but not all to tournament teams. In all they lost 6 of 8 before slowly recovering their mojo. Finally at the end they put together another solid win streak of six games that ended in a 2-point loss to 2-seed Marquette. Have they truly regained their early season form? They're probably close, if they can continue it.
6-9 forward Adama Sanogo is the team's leader in points (16.8) and rebounds (7.3). The Huskies are a tall team, who often have every player on the court at 6-5 or over and also have a 7-2 backup center.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (2): =(15)Vermont+21, =(15)Princeton+6
- Losses to tournament teams (0): None
- Other losses (7): @Hofstra-5, =Santa Clara-10, @New Mexico-8, =SMU-4, @Quinnipiac-23, Rider-3, @Siena-17
Overview: Rick Pitino's third year at Iona started with ups and downs: Big wins over Penn (78-50) and 15-seed Vermont (71-50) and bad losses to Hofstra and Santa Clara. The Gaels were zipping along at 11-4 though when they hid a bad skid of five games—three losses and two poor wins—that made up their worst stretch. They managed to come out of it and put together a 14-game win streak. Note that in the last 13 games there were no opponents ranked better than #200 in Pomeroy, but hey a win streak is a win streak, and they won most games handily.
Three Gaels average over 15 points per game led by Walter Clayton Jr's 16.9, while #3 scorer Nelly Junior Joseph averages 9.3 rebounds per game.
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Game Analysis: Iona ranks as one of the most unpredictable teams in the country but that's more a product of their early season play and their terrible 5-game slump in the middle. Toward the end they were consistently good, and their 6-game ranking reflects accurately how they are playing right now. So it's not the case that they might really collapse, or might raise their game to a new level. They're probably going to play a good game but not good enough to beat UConn.
UConn's height might bother the Gaels but not at the big man positions where Nelly Junior Joseph is a shot blocker and they also have 7-footer Osborn Shema (the Gaels are #4 in the nation in blocking shots). At guard and forward the Huskies are tall, though, and UConn is the #1 offensive rebounding team in the nation.
Many other stats are comparable between the teams on offense and defense but you have to remember UConn played the 51st toughest schedule while Iona played the #177 schedule. They feasted on teams bordering around #200 in Pomeroy in their 14-game win streak, while UConn's 14-game win streak included overall 1-seed Alabama.
The Rick Pitino factor has been the most-discussed element of the game, and it's true his track record is great: 7 Final Fours and another 5 Elite Eights. Meanwhile UConn's Dan Hurley has zero Sweet Sixteens. It's the one area where Iona has a distinct advantage, but the coaches don't get on the floor. Pitino may be great at inspiring his teams, but how much will they be inspired knowing that he's bolting for St. John's once they lose?
Vegas Line:
UConn by 9
Power rating: spread
UConn by 10.8
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
UConn: 75.7%
Iona: 24.3%
UConn's spread is fairly similar between Vegas and Strength; maybe Vegas gives a few points for the Pitino factor? Either way, Iona's odds of winning via the game-comparison system are a bit higher than the 21% a 13-seed normally has, due to UConn's slump and Iona's up and down play early on.
Bottom line: Pitino will definitely coach his team to a strong showing, but UConn has proven resilient and should win. I doubt they've recovered their form from early in the season but they've come close enough to make a decent run.
Final prediction: Connecticut 76, Iona 69
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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