All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Tennessee Volunteers
Seed: 4
Record: 24-10
Conference: SEC
vs.
Duke Blue Devils
Seed: 5
Record: 27-8
Conference: ACC
Date: Saturday, March 18
Time: 2:40 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Orlando, FL
Channel: CBS
Two teams with two 7-footers? Sounds like the dream of 1970s-80s hoops.
Tennessee Duke
Power Ratings
Strength: #4 Strength: #21
Median: #4 Median: #29
Markov: #12 Markov: #22
Pomeroy: #5 Pomeroy: #21
Offense: #49 Offense: #42
Defense: #2 Defense: #24
BPI: #3 BPI: #16
LRMC: #10 LRMC: #21
Other Measures:
SOS: #42 SOS: #60
Tempo (Offense): #231 Tempo (Offense): #294
Consistency: #345 Consistency: #340
Str + Reliability: #11 Str + Reliability: #46
Str + Potential: #2 Str + Potential: #12
2nd half season: #10 2nd half season: #25
Last 6: #17 Last 6: #3
Injury Mod Rank: #24 Injury Mod Rank: #23
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: #6 Final 4: #7
Sweet 16: #8 Sweet 16: #10
Tennessee is a very strong 4-seed, that's clear from the power ratings where they look more like a 1-seed or 2-seed. #4 in Strength, #5 in Pomeroy, #3 in BPI (these have slipped a bit since the Louisiana game). Only the LRMC has the Vols at roughly a 4-seed level, #10. Interestingly our own Markov chain implementation also puts the Volunteers lower, at #12. But overall the Volunteers have been one of the best teams this year, and our MegaScreen rankings put them in the mix for the Final Four with the Sweet Sixteen almost a given.
But their play over the last month or so hasn't been at a 1- or 2-seed level, which is why they fell to a 4-seed. They rank only #10 for the 2nd half of the season and #16 over the last six games. Already slumping, Tennessee lost point guard Zakai Zeigler in the opening minutes against Arkansas, and their Injury Mod Rank of #24 reflects how they play in the 5-game sample without him.
Duke on the other hand looks like a fair-value 5-seed but has been overachieving lately. Over the last several games they've been better each time out and their win over Oral Roberts was no exception—it's pushed them to #3 in recent play. So while Tennessee's injury to Zeigler has brought them down to Duke's regular level, Duke is playing above that level now.
Both teams have been very inconsistent this year, but right now it appears they are playing on opposite ends of their own spectrum.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (10): =(10)USC+OT, =(1)Kansas+14, =(8)Maryland+3, (11)Mississippi St.+34, @(11)Mississippi St.+11, (2)Texas+11, (9)Auburn+3, (1)Alabama+9, (8)Arkansas+18, =(13)Louisiana+3
- Losses to tournament teams (7): @(2)Arizona-5, (6)Kentucky-7, (7)Missouri-1, @(6)Kentucky-12, @(7)Texas A&M-5, @(9)Auburn-9, =(7)Missouri-8
- Other losses (3): Colorado-12, @Florida-13, @Vanderbilt-1
Overview: Tennessee was one of the very best teams all season but ran into turbulence in February and may have taken a fatal blow in March. Despite losing basically at home to Colorado, 78-66, the Vols beat 10-seed USC and 1-seed Kansas to start 14-2 (they also lost to 2-seed Arizona on the road in that stretch). The home loss to then-struggling Kentucky was another aberration, and soon they were 18-3, fresh off a win over 2-seed Texas in the SEC/Big Twelve Challenge, and ranked #2 in the AP poll. From there the Vols lost to Florida and Vanderbilt, and Missouri at home, and were never the same. Occasional great wins—like beating 1-seed Alabama—were followed by losses, reflecting their status as one of the country's most inconsistent teams. Defensively they were always sound, even fantastic, but on offense they often struggled.
Santiago Vescovi leads the team with 12.9 points per game but in 2nd place is point guard Zakai Zeigler with 10.7 points, 5.4 assists, and 2.0 steals per game. He will miss the tournament however as he recovers from a torn ACL. Our Injury Correction rankings show the Vols aren't nearly as good without him, and the Vols first round game did nothing to assuage those worries as they beat Louisiana 58-55 after blowing an 18 point lead. Tyreke Key led with 12 points.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): =(3)Xavier+7, =(8)Iowa+12, (11)Pittsburgh+8, (5)Miami FL+2, (11)N.C. State+4, =(11)Pittsburgh+27, =(5)Miami FL+7, =(4)Virginia+10, =(12)Oral Roberts+23
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =(1)Kansas-5, =(1)Purdue-19, @(11)N.C. State-24, @(5)Miami FL-22, @(4)Virginia-OT
- Other losses (3): @Wake Forest-11, @Clemson-8, @Virginia Tech-3
Overview: Duke's season has been up and down in their first year under Jon Scheyer. But at the end it's all sunshine and rainbows as the team seems to get better with each game. Will it end in another Final Four berth for the Blue Devils?
Duke beat 3-seed Xavier and 8-seed Iowa early, but also lost to Kansas and Purdue—losses which seem excusable given that both those teams ended up as 1-seeds. But the Blue Devils lost to some pretty mediocre teams in ACC competition, like Wake Forest, Clemson, and Virginia Tech. They hit a low at Miami, losing 81-59, but soon after started their 9-game-and-counting win streak. It started slow vs. poor teams like Notre Dame and Louisville but they beat four tournament teams in the last 5 games.
7-foot Center Kyle Filipowski leads the team with 15.4 points and 9.0 rebounds per game, and he's only one of two starting 7-footers on the nation's tallest team. Yet it was 6-2 guard Jeremy Roach leading the way with 26 points in the Oral Roberts blowout.
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Game Analysis: This game should make for some great interior battles with Duke's two 7-footers going up against Tennessee's (almost) two 7-footers inside. Of course, Duke's Kyle Filipowski isn't a center but a forward who shoots plenty of three-pointers, and Tennessee's 7-1 Uros Plavsic and 6-11 Jonas Aidoo generally split court time, so it isn't quite the fantasy scenario from decades ago when 7-foot centers were all the rage with Hakeem, Patrick Ewing, and Ralph Sampson dominating college hoops.
Were both teams at full strength this would be a great game. Tennessee would undoubtedly be favored to win this game if played any time through January. The Vols defense is still great, but the offense—questionable all season—has really slumped without Zeigler. And the team was already hitting some bumps on the road throughout February with inconsistent play.
Meanwhile Duke is firing on all cylinders. The Blue Devils went through their own rough patch and had starters out here and there but since mid-February—really, since the overtime loss at Virginia, which was a strong performance—they've been great and getting better every time out. If they continue this upward climb they'll be in the Final Four and favored to win it.
If there were ever a time two teams were crossing in different directions this is it.
Vegas Line:
Duke by 3 1/2
Power rating: spread: Full season / last 5 games
Tennessee by 5.0 / Duke by 11.9
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Tennessee: 60.8% / 20.0%
Duke: 39.2% / 80.0%
As expected Duke is the favorite by the oddsmakers, while the Strength power rating shows that, for the full-season, Tennessee would be around a 5 point favorite. The Vegas line is normally very close to Strength's estimate, so we have an 8 or 9 point swing in sentiment here. Cross-comparing all games of the season, Tennessee should be about a 61% favorite, a higher percentage than normal for 4-seeds against 5-seeds (around 55%).
But if we look at the relevant last 5 games, where Zakai Zeigler was gone and also while Duke is surging, the Blue Devils become an overwhelming favorite, winning 80% of the 25 comparisons and becoming a 12 point favorite. This is, of course, the worst you can make the comparison look (unless you clip it to fewer than 5 games which makes little sense) but even for longer periods Duke has been better. It's mostly due to Tennessee's crash without Zeigler.
Bottom line: It's not even close how much more impressive Duke was in their first round game than Tennessee. Every fear of UT fans about how they'd do without Zeigler is coming true while the Blue Devils are getting better every game. I would consider a Tennessee win a major upset at this point, and in any case I had Tennessee exiting before the Sweet Sixteen all along.
Final prediction: Duke 68, Tennessee 51
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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