All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Tennessee Volunteers
Seed: 4
Record: 23-10
Conference: SEC
vs.
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
Seed: 13
Record: 26-7
Conference: Sun Belt
Date: Thursday, March 16
Time: 9:40 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Orlando, FL
Channel: CBS
How far can the Vols go without point guard Zakai Zeigler?
Tennessee Louisiana
Power Ratings
Strength: #4 Strength: #98
Median: #4 Median: #105
Markov: #12 Markov: #92
Pomeroy: #5 Pomeroy: #92
Offense: #49 Offense: #57
Defense: #2 Defense: #146
BPI: #3 BPI: #99
LRMC: #10 LRMC: #96
Other Measures:
SOS: #42 SOS: #183
Tempo (Offense): #231 Tempo (Offense): #119
Consistency: #345 Consistency: #7
Str + Reliability: #11 Str + Reliability: #60
Str + Potential: #2 Str + Potential: #150
2nd half season: #10 2nd half season: #91
Last 6: #16 Last 6: #80
Injury Mod Rank: #20 Injury Mod Rank: #98
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: #6 Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #8 Sweet 16: NA
Tennessee is a very strong 4-seed, that's clear from the power ratings where they look more like a 1-seed or 2-seed. #4 in Strength, #5 in Pomeroy, #3 in BPI. Only the LRMC has the Vols at roughly a 4-seed level, #10. Interestingly our own Markov chain implementation also puts the Volunteers lower, at #12. But overall the Volunteers have been one of the best teams this year, and our MegaScreen rankings put them in the mix for the Final Four with the Sweet Sixteen almost a given.
But their play over the last month or so hasn't been at a 1- or 2-seed level, which is why they fell to a 4-seed. They rank only #10 for the 2nd half of the season and #16 over the last six games. Already slumping, Tennessee lost point guard Zakai Zeigler in the opening minutes against Arkansas, and their Injury Mod Rank of #16 reflects how they play in the small sample without him.
Louisiana is hoping to capitalize on those woes with an upset win, but they've still got a tall order as they rank around #100 in the power ratings. They play solid offense (#57 in Pomeroy) but that's matched up against Tennesee's #2 defensive play. Tennessee's offense has been their weakness all year but they'll be facing the #146 defense against the Cajuns.
While Tennessee has been one of the most inconsistent teams this year, Louisiana has been smooth sailing and very predictable—not really what you want to be when gunning for an upset. It's that kind of consistency that helps you win your minor conference tournament against teams you're supposed to beat, not the kind that upsets giants.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): =(10)USC+OT, =(1)Kansas+14, =(8)Maryland+3, (11)Mississippi St.+34, @(11)Mississippi St.+11, (2)Texas+11, (9)Auburn+3, (1)Alabama+9, (8)Arkansas+18
- Losses to tournament teams (7): @(2)Arizona-5, (6)Kentucky-7, (7)Missouri-1, @(6)Kentucky-12, @(7)Texas A&M-5, @(9)Auburn-9, =(7)Missouri-8
- Other losses (3): Colorado-12, @Florida-13, @Vanderbilt-1
Overview: Tennessee was one of the very best teams all season but ran into turbulence in February and may have taken a fatal blow in March. Despite losing basically at home to Colorado, 78-66, the Vols beat 10-seed USC and 1-seed Kansas to start 14-2 (they also lost to 2-seed Arizona on the road in that stretch). The home loss to then-struggling Kentucky was another aberration, and soon they were 18-3, fresh off a win over 2-seed Texas in the SEC/Big Twelve Challenge, and ranked #2 in the AP poll. From there the Vols lost to Florida and Vanderbilt, and Missouri at home, and were never the same. Occasional great wins—like beating 1-seed Alabama—were followed by losses, reflecting their status as one of the country's most inconsistent teams. Defensively they were always sound, even fantastic, but on offense they often struggled.
Santiago Vescovi leads the team with 12.9 points per game but in 2nd place is point guard Zakai Zeigler with 10.7 points, 5.4 assists, and 2.0 steals per game. He will miss the tournament however as he recovers from a torn ACL. Our Injury Correction rankings show the Vols aren't nearly as good without him.
**************************************************************
- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (2): @(12)Drake-12, @(2)Texas-28
- Other losses (5): @Coastal Carolina-1, @Old Dominion-4, @Southern Miss-11, @Troy-15, @James Madison-6
Overview: Louisiana played consistent basketball this year, for the most part beating the teams they're supposed to beat and losing to those they're supposed to lose to. Like 12-seed Drake early on, and then 2-seed Texas (100-72). That big loss might have led to the flubs at Coastal Carolina and Old Dominion (their 3rd and 4th road game in a row), but soon they were winning with regularity, dropping only a few road games on their way to a Sun Belt title. The Cajuns didn't lose at home all year.
The Cajuns win with offense and lose on defense. They shoot the 3 very well (37%) but don't defend it well. They do rebound well on both sides of the court, and their only offensive weakness is poor free throw shooting (67%). 6-11 Forward Jordan Brown is the team's leading scorer (19.4 ppg) and rebounder (8.7) and leads in blocked shots, too.
**************************************************************
Game Analysis: Tennessee might be ripe for an upset—poor offense, playing erratically, now missing a key player—but Louisiana doesn't seem to be the right type of team to take advantage of the opportunity.
Louisiana plays solid offense which is wasted against Tennessee's incredible defense. And the Cajuns aren't good on defense, where they could further compound Tennessee's offensive woes. Instead, it's just what the Volunteers need.
Not only that, but Louisiana is a very consistent team, one of the most consistent in the nation. Hardly the kind of team able to rise to the occasion and find another gear, even if just randomly, to pull off an upset. Instead they'll be like every other team, hoping for Tennessee's inconsistency to manifest on the downside. Further, the Cajuns play a moderately fast tempo, which doesn't reduce the number of possession to keep things closer.
Jordan Brown is a great player, but he's also the only tall Cajun; they start three shorter guards and a 6-7 forward. Tennessee has a lot of height at power forward and center (including 7-1 Uros Plavsic) to keep Brown in check.
Vegas Line:
Tennessee by 11
Power rating: spread
Tennessee by 14.7
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Tennessee: 83.0%
Louisiana: 17.0%
Historically, 13-seeds upset 4-seeds about 20% of the time so the game-comparison system is giving Louisiana less than the norm. As we've said, Tennessee is a strong 4-seed, but the discrepancy between Vegas and the Strength power rating—Vegas favoring the Vols by almost 4 points fewer—demonstrates the doubt about Tennessee without Zeigler.
Bottom line: Tennessee's recent woes might make this a popular upset pick, but I feel the opposite; Louisiana is a team ready-made for Tennessee to beat, even in the Vols' weakened and questionable state.
Final prediction: Tennessee 76, Louisiana 61
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
Comments