All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Indiana Hoosiers
Seed: 4
Record: 23-11
Conference: Big Ten
vs.
Miami Hurricanes
Seed: 5
Record: 26-7
Conference: ACC
Date: Sunday, March 19
Time: 8:40 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Albany, NY
Channel: TNT
I thought both these teams were vulnerable to being upset, but they made it to the 2nd round unlike some 1- and 2-seeds.
Indiana Miami
Power Ratings
Strength: #23 Strength: #48
Median: #24 Median: #37
Markov: #20 Markov: #31
Pomeroy: #30 Pomeroy: #40
Offense: #27 Offense: #12
Defense: #43 Defense: #132
BPI: #17 BPI: #36
LRMC: #24 LRMC: #41
Other Measures:
SOS: #23 SOS: #84
Tempo (Offense): #47 Tempo (Offense): #106
Consistency: #251 Consistency: #74
Str + Reliability: #29 Str + Reliability: #32
Str + Potential: #29 Str + Potential: #70
2nd half season: #34 2nd half season: #42
Last 6: #53 Last 6: #77
Injury Mod Rank: #34 Injury Mod Rank: #50
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: NA Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #24 Sweet 16: #20
Indiana holds a decent-sized lead over Miami considering they're only a seed apart. In Strength, Pomeroy, LRMC, and especially BPI they have a solid lead. For all of that Miami plays better offense by quite a bit; Indiana's defense is worlds better however.
Indiana's schedule was a lot tougher so far, reflecting the top-to-bottom strength of the Big Ten compared to the ACC. Miami's the far more consistent team though, meaning that Indiana is going to have a bad game to lose basically. Both teams play a quick tempo, Indiana the faster of the two.
Neither team played well down the stretch this year, leading me to pick both to be upset in the first round! But both recovered, at least well enough to beat a 12- and 13-seed, which these days is a cause for celebration with 16-seeds beating 1-seeds and 15-seeds going to the Sweet Sixteen. Who has recovered more? Both still lag in the Last 6 Games measure, but Miami's major doubt was how they could play without Norchad Omier, and he played 36 minutes vs. Drake, so that cause for concern is gone.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): @(3)Xavier+2, (14)Kennesaw St.+14, @(9)Illinois+15, (7)Michigan St.+13, (1)Purdue+5, (9)Illinois+3, @(1)Purdue+8, =(8)Maryland+10, =(13)Kent St.+11
- Losses to tournament teams (10): =(2)Arizona-14, @(1)Kansas-22, @(8)Iowa-2, (7)Northwestern-1, @(10)Penn St.-19, @(8)Maryland-11, @(7)Northwestern-2, @(7)Michigan St.-15, (8)Iowa-22, =(10)Penn St.-4
- Other losses (1): @Rutgers-15
Overview: Indiana started pretty strong at 7-0 with wins over 3-seed Xavier and pre-season #1 North Carolina but shockingly lost their first Big Ten contest to Rutgers, 63-48. They also fell to 2-seed Arizona and 1-seed Kansas. Xavier Johnson was lost for the year early in the KU game and the Hoosiers then lost three Big Ten games in a row. At 1-4 in conference play their pre-season promise looked busted. But they won 8 of their next 9, beating 9-seed Illinois, 7-seed Michigan State, and 1-seed Purdue in that run. But the end of the season was very erratic for the Hoosiers, alternating wins and losses, great games and terrible ones. Beating 1-seed Purdue again—on the road this time—was followed by a 90-68 home loss to 8-seed Iowa. They ended the season 4-4, more unpredictable than ever.
The one constant this year as been the play of Trayce Jackson-Davis, a player-of-the-year candidate who averages 20.8 points per game and 10.9 rebounds, as well as 4.1 assists. As mentioned, 3rd-leading scorer Xavier Johnson was lost early in the season; it seems like they eventually adjusted to playing without him but are inconsistent as a result. They beat Kent State 71-60 behind Jackson-Davis' 20 points.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): =(11)Providence+10, (11)N.C. State+7, (4)Virginia+2, (5)Duke+22, (11)Pittsburgh+2, =(12)Drake+7
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =(8)Maryland-18, @(11)N.C. State-OT, @(5)Duke-2, @(11)Pittsburgh-3, =(5)Duke-7
- Other losses (2): @Georgia Tech-6, Florida St.-1
Overview: Miami popped off to a 13-1 start, beating 11-seed Providence in the pre-conference season as well as UCF and Rutgers while losing only to 8-seed Maryland. They beat 11-seed NC State and 4-seed Virginia before a stunning loss to 15-18 Georgia Tech started a 4-4 skid. All those losses were on the road and the Canes marched on, winning 7 straight including an 81-59 win over 5-seed Duke (the only tournament team in that stretch). Then came the FSU debacle, their first home loss, to a 9-23 team, on a last-second heartbreaking shot by their hated rival. It seems to have done something to them.
The Hurricanes didn't play well at all at the very end. It wasn't just the Duke loss in the final game—where they lost Norchad Omier early in the contest—but all of their last four games: the home loss to Florida State, the 2-point home win over 11-seed Pitt, the 2-point win over Wake Forest—all were basically as bad as the Duke loss.
Omier is a key defensive player, averaging 1.3 blocks and 9.7 rebounds along with being the Hurricanes' #3 scorer at 13.6ppg. Their overall scoring leader is senior guard Isaiah Wong who leads the team with 16.2 points, 3.4 assists and 1.4 steals. Nigel Pack scored 21 in the win over Drake.
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Game Analysis: This is another "double-mismatch" game, the kind that seems so common these days, where both teams either play great offense or great defense, resulting in mismatches on both sides of the floor. In this case it's the team with the ball that's in charge as both teams have defensive play that lags their offensive prowess.
Miami is even better on offense than Indiana, but they're far worse than the Hoosiers on D. When the Hoosiers have the ball they have a great advantage in effective field goal percentage over Miami's defense, both on 3-pointers and especially 2-pointers. The only things Miami does right on defense is create turnovers and not foul.
When Miami has the ball they don't have nearly as good of an advantage shooting. Indiana's D is good at stopping the 2 but not the three, and Miami shoots the three pretty well. Indiana rebounds pretty well on defense, too, and gets a lot of blocked shots. They don't create turnovers, however.
All in all Indiana's defense is weaker but not bordering on putrid like Miami sometimes. Miami's offense is about the same as Indiana's plus they get 2nd shots via rebounds, another weakness of both teams on defense.
Vegas Line:
Indiana by 2
Power rating: spread
Indiana by 3.0
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Indiana: 59.4%
Miami: 40.6%
The 4 vs. 5 matchup is won by the 4-seed about 55% of the time; Indiana's 59% reflects Miami's low power rating scores more than anything else. Vegas has the Hoosiers by 2; our Power rating says three points.
Bottom line: Indiana is playing up and down, but Miami is just playing flat. They look like a team that should have lost in the first round. Neither team looks like a Sweet Sixteen team but at least Indiana looks like they belong in the Round of 32.
Final prediction: Indiana 78, Miami 74
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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