All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Indiana Hoosiers
Seed: 4
Record: 22-11
Conference: Big Ten
vs.
Kent State Golden Flashes
Seed: 13
Record: 28-6
Conference: MAC
Date: Friday, March 17
Time: 9:55 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Albany, NY
Channel: TBS
A game that—like many first-round games—will come down to who wants it more.
Indiana Kent State
Power Ratings
Strength: #23 Strength: #66
Median: #24 Median: #49
Markov: #20 Markov: #56
Pomeroy: #30 Pomeroy: #71
Offense: #27 Offense: #110
Defense: #43 Defense: #38
BPI: #17 BPI: #73
LRMC: #24 LRMC: #37
Other Measures:
SOS: #23 SOS: #155
Tempo (Offense): #47 Tempo (Offense): #92
Consistency: #251 Consistency: #50
Str + Reliability: #29 Str + Reliability: #39
Str + Potential: #29 Str + Potential: #86
2nd half season: #34 2nd half season: #89
Last 6: #69 Last 6: #64
Injury Mod Rank: #36 Injury Mod Rank: #75
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: NA Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #24 Sweet 16: NA
Not surprisingly, 4-seed Indiana outranks the 13-seed Flashes but it's not all that far apart in some cases. There's a big discrepancy in Strength but in Median Strength it's considerably tighter, #24 to #49. The BPI has the widest spread but the LRMC the tightest, #24 to #37. Kent State's defensive play rates higher than Indiana's in Pomeroy too, #38 to #43. What gives the Hoosiers the overall advantage is their #27 offense, while Kent State's is just #110.
Obviously Indiana has faced a tougher schedule overall but as we'll see Kent State has played some of the nation's top teams so the Hoosiers won't surprise them. Both teams want to play a quick tempo to varying degrees, but they are opposites in terms of Consistency, where Indiana is fairly random and Kent State seems very steady. The Flashes are unlikely to have a bad game but will find it hard to get an extra gear, instead depending on Indiana to have a poor outing. Both teams were better earlier in the season, but the Flashes have recovered while Indiana is playing poorly in the last several games, almost to make the contest a draw at this point (if we can trust the small sample). Further, both teams are missing a player from earlier in the season that made them a better team: for Indiana it was Xavier Johnson, for Kent State, Giovanni Santiago.
Only Indiana shows up, and not very highly, in our MegaScreen's Sweet 16 rankings.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): @(3)Xavier+2, (14)Kennesaw St.+14, @(9)Illinois+15, (7)Michigan St.+13, (1)Purdue+5, (9)Illinois+3, @(1)Purdue+8, =(8)Maryland+10
- Losses to tournament teams (10): =(2)Arizona-14, @(1)Kansas-22, @(8)Iowa-2, (7)Northwestern-1, @(10)Penn St.-19, @(8)Maryland-11, @(7)Northwestern-2, @(7)Michigan St.-15, (8)Iowa-22, =(10)Penn St.-4
- Other losses (1): @Rutgers-15
Overview: Indiana started pretty strong at 7-0 with wins over 3-seed Xavier and pre-season #1 North Carolina but shockingly lost their first Big Ten contest to Rutgers, 63-48. They also fell to 2-seed Arizona and 1-seed Kansas. Xavier Johnson was lost for the year early in the KU game and the Hoosiers then lost three Big Ten games in a row. At 1-4 in conference play their pre-season promise looked busted. But they won 8 of their next 9, beating 9-seed Illinois, 7-seed Michigan State, and 1-seed Purdue in that run. But the end of the season was very erratic for the Hoosiers, alternating wins and losses, great games and terrible ones. Beating 1-seed Purdue again—on the road this time—was followed by a 90-68 home loss to 8-seed Iowa. They ended the season 4-4, more unpredictable than ever.
The one constant this year as been the play of Trayce Jackson-Davis, a player-of-the-year candidate who averages 20.8 points per game and 10.9 rebounds, as well as 4.1 assists. As mentioned, 3rd-leading scorer Xavier Johnson was lost early in the season; it seems like they eventually adjusted to playing without him but are inconsistent as a result.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (1): @(16)Northern Kentucky+22
- Losses to tournament teams (3): @(12)Charleston-2, @(1)Houston-5, @(3)Gonzaga-7
- Other losses (3): @Northern Illinois-10, @Akron-12, @Ball St.-12
Overview: Through the first 12 or so games of the season, Kent State looked like the new 2008 Davidson (I'm always on the lookout for the new 2008 Davidson). A team that played excellent ball across the board winning or losing, and lost only to high-profile teams in close games. The Flashes beat 16-seed Northern Kentucky in the opener, 79-57, and lost to 12-seed, 31-3 Charleston 74-72, to 1-seed Houston 49-44, and 3-seed Gonzaga 73-66, all on the road. That's reminiscent to 2008 Davidson's tough early schedule where they played top seeds very close prior to their Elite Eight run.
There is a big difference, and that's that Davidson got better as the season went on and were undefeated in conference play. Kent State's consistent play started to break down before they started losing, and their three later losses were much worse than the early ones—to worse teams, and by low double digits. At the end it's tempting to say the Flashes have regained their form as their 93-78 win over Toledo was their best game since the opener.
PG Sincere Carry is the Flashes' leading scorer with 17.6 points and 4.9 assists per game.
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Game Analysis: Kent State's defense seems good enough to handle matters when Indiana has the ball. They force turnovers, block shots, and limit opponents to a low shooting percentage. What more can you ask for? Rebounding would help, but you can't do everything; plus Indiana isn't a great offensive rebounding team. The Hoosiers shoot the three very sparingly for modern basketball and don't get to the foul line often—but Kent State's agressive D fouls quite a bit. The Hoosiers shoot just 71%.
On the other hand Indiana's defense can really contain the Flashes. They force long possession by locking down on defense; they don't try to cause turnovers but they're big on blocked shots. The team is tall across the board, with every player 6-4 and over most of the time. Kent State's guards are all a lot shorter, and that could be a problem for the Flashes. Kent State may have to resort to a lot of three-point attempts to break Indiana's packed-in defense. But they only shoot 33% on threes. Not sure what the answer is for the Flashes on offense, but sometimes a team just makes their shots and that of course makes all the difference.
Kent State's season is interesting. Why were they so good early on? And why were they worse when the schedule got easier? Did they like the challenge of playing good teams, and lose focus against lower-level competition? That would be one reason why they played so well at the end—they needed to win their conference to make it to the NCAA tournament.
Contrast that to Indiana's season. Twice the team seemed to be trucking along only to hit a really bad rough patch. As of now the rough patches and recoveries are alternative game by game. It doesn't bode well for a deep tournament run, and even for one game it looks like feast or famine: either the Hoosiers get a blowout win on suffer an upset loss.
Vegas Line:
Indiana by 4
Power rating: spread
Indiana by 4.7
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Indiana: 62.9%
Kent State: 37.1%
The spread is pretty low for a 4-seed vs. 13-seed game, reflecting perhaps both Indiana's relative weakness as a 4-seed and Kent State's strength as a 13-seed. But overall it seems that there is some "compression" in quality, and this year in particular has a lot of parity among large swaths of the college basketball world. Kent State's 37% chance to win is almost double the historical chance for a 13-seed (~21%) so that backs up the Vegas line.
Bottom line: Indiana isn't predictable at the moment but Kent State seems to have settled into a good thing lately. Their season indicates they are hungry, where Indiana is all over the place. If the Hoosiers were facing a struggling team they'd win by 25. Instead I think the Flashes will get the upset.
Final prediction: Kent State 73, Indiana 67
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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