All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Xavier Musketeers
Seed: 3
Record: 25-9
Conference: Big East
vs.
Kennesaw State Owls
Seed: 14
Record: 26-8
Conference: ASUN
Date: Friday, March 17
Time: 12:40pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Greensboro, NC
Channel: truTV
Three years after a 1-28 season Kennesaw State made the Big Dance.
Xavier Kennesaw St
Power Ratings
Strength: #17 Strength: #146
Median: #21 Median: #128
Markov: #11 Markov: #133
Pomeroy: #16 Pomeroy: #127
Offense: #9 Offense: #153
Defense: #70 Defense: #116
BPI: #21 BPI: #134
LRMC: #12 LRMC: #131
Other Measures:
SOS: #20 SOS: #247
Tempo (Offense): #50 Tempo (Offense): #101
Consistency: #58 Consistency: #25
Str + Reliability: #9 Str + Reliability: #113
Str + Potential: #41 Str + Potential: #191
2nd half season: #21 2nd half season: #122
Last 6: #13 Last 6: #148
Injury Mod Rank: #15 Injury Mod Rank: #149
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: #8 Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #13 Sweet 16: NA
Xavier obviously outranks Kennesaw State in just about every metric, generally settling in below #20 in the power ratings while the Owls are in low triple digits everywhere. Even the offense vs. defensive efficiency numbers don't give a break, as Xavier's numbers are better whether compared in pair or crossed-over. The Musketeers had a much tougher schedule of course. There are a few similarities: both teams play a pretty quick tempo, and both teams are pretty consistent in their results. Neither bodes well for the Owls' upset chances.
Xavier is so consistent that a deep run becomes a possibility, and indeed they made the radar in our Final Four MegaScreen, though outside the likelihood area. They are a solid Sweet Sixteen team, as is expected of a 3-seed.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): (9)West Virginia+10, (4)Connecticut+10, (6)Creighton+3, (2)Marquette+4, @(4)Connecticut+3, (11)Providence+OT, @(11)Providence+5, =(6)Creighton+22
- Losses to tournament teams (6): (4)Indiana-2, =(5)Duke-7, =(3)Gonzaga-4, @(6)Creighton-17, @(2)Marquette-1, =(2)Marquette-14
- Other losses (3): @DePaul-1, @Butler-2, Villanova-1
Overview: Xavier has a good consistency rating but it seems to be mostly due to the first half of the season when they actually were very consistent. Lately they've been a bit all over the place, upside and downside. Early losses to 4-seed Indiana, 5-seed Duke, and 3-seed Gonzaga were offset by wins over 9-seed West Virginia, 4-seed UConn, 6-seed Creighton, and 2-seed Marquette as part of an 11-game win streak through mid-January. Losses to DePaul and Butler harmed their résumé but they beat UConn and Creighton again, as well as 11-seed Providence twice in going 15-5 in Big East play with and finishing 2nd to Marquette in the conference tournament.
Point guard Souley Boum leads the team with 16.5 ppg and 4.4 assists. The Musketeers are a tall team with tall guards and 7-0 center Jack Nunge. 2nd leading scorer Zack Freemantle was lost in late January, roughly corresponding to the time when Xavier started to get less consistent—but kept playing just as well on average. It may mean a deeper run is less likely, though.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (3): @(12)VCU-3, @(5)San Diego St.-34, @(4)Indiana-14
- Other losses (5): @Florida-10, =Campbell-24, @North Florida-3, @Eastern Kentucky-3, Queens-7
Overview: When Amir Abdur-Rahim took over the Owls in 2019, Kennesaw State was 6-26 the previous season. They went 1-28 in his first year as head coach, then 5-19 in his second (the Covid-shortened season). Last year they were 13-18. This year? 26-8 and champions of the ASUN (formerly Atlantic Sun conference). That total still includes three non-D-I schools, and a horrendous 85-61 loss to Campbell, but the Owls did respectably against Florida (88-78 loss on the road), VCU (64-61 road loss), and Indiana (69-55 road loss) though San Diego State got away from them. When the ASUN season rolled in they started winning more than they had in years—more than they ever had at D-I, where their previous best was 14 wins. They Owls topped Liberty—the best team in the ASUN by far—two times, the last one when it counted: for the NCAA automatic bid. It helped that they were playing at home for both games, but they earned the home court by being the top seed.
Chris Youngblood leads the Owls with 14.7 points per game
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Game Analysis: 14-seeds beat 3-seeds quite often, in fact on average it happens each tournament —or rather, 0.6 times per tournament. Unlike the 15 vs. 2 upsets which are very hard to call and too risky, the 14 vs. 3 upsets can often be seen beforehand. Usually it's a weak three, sometimes an extra-strong 14-seed, but for bracket strategy it's best to only do so when you aren't going to advance the three-seed very far. This game doesn't seem to offer good odds for the upset, as Xavier isn't weak and Kennesaw State isn't very strong.
For one thing Xavier shoots the ball very well (#10 EFG) and the Owls don't defend very well (#212)—and those are rankings based on Xavier's #20 SOS and Kennesaw's #247 SOS, so imagine how disparate they'd be if corrected for opposition. Xavier's rebounding numbers are better, too. The Owls do shoot 37% from the 3-point line. But if the game is somehow close, they make only 66% from the free throw line (and that's a stat that doesn't have to be adjusted for opposition).
Another stat that doesn't need to be adjusted for opposition: height. Xavier is the #26 team in average height while Kennesaw State is #337. The Owls start a lineup that is a total of 14 inches shorter than the Musketeers, an average of almost 3 inches per player. The biggest discrepancies are at point guard (5 inches) and center (4 inches).
Vegas Line:
Xavier by 11 1/2
Power rating: spread
Xavier by 13.3
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Xavier: 88.8%
Kennesaw St: 11.2%
14-seeds normally have almost a 15% chance to win against a 3-seed, but Kennesaw state has about an 11% chance based on game comparisons. The reason, as noted above, is that both teams are consistent so there aren't many outliers for the Owls to win. Our game spread is slightly higher but still in line with Vegas.
Bottom line: Kennesaw had a great season and a great run in the conference tournament and getting to the Big Dance is the reward, but that's where it probably stops. Wait till next year, though, if they keep getting better at this rate they'll be a 3-seed themselves next time around.
Final prediction: Xavier 84, Kennesaw State 70
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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