All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Xavier Musketeers
Seed: 3
Record: 26-9
Conference: Big East
vs.
Pittsburgh Panthers
Seed: 11
Record: 24-11
Conference: ACC
Date: Sunday, March 19
Time: 12:10 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Greensboro, NC
Channel: CBS
If first-round performance means anything, Pitt has a great chance to advance.
Xavier Pittsburgh
Power Ratings
Strength: #17 Strength: #75
Median: #21 Median: #59
Markov: #11 Markov: #61
Pomeroy: #16 Pomeroy: #77
Offense: #9 Offense: #24
Defense: #70 Defense: #135
BPI: #21 BPI: #67
LRMC: #12 LRMC: #72
Other Measures:
SOS: #20 SOS: #89
Tempo (Offense): #50 Tempo (Offense): #152
Consistency: #58 Consistency: #319
Str + Reliability: #9 Str + Reliability: #88
Str + Potential: #41 Str + Potential: #54
2nd half season: #21 2nd half season: #79
Last 6: #24 Last 6: #82
Injury Mod Rank: #15 Injury Mod Rank: #82
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: #8 Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #13 Sweet 16: #42
Xavier will be the clear favorite by the power ratings, obviously as they're a 3-seed vs. an 11-seed and the stats show the difference. Both teams play much better offense than defense which does lead to mismatches on both sides, which in theory could mean a pretty even game as both offenses have success.
Xavier is so consistent that a deep run becomes a possibility, and indeed they made the radar in our Final Four MegaScreen, though outside the likelihood area. They are a solid Sweet Sixteen team, as is expected of a 3-seed. Pitt is very inconsistent which is ironically the one thing that could get them a win: have another upside outlier performance like they did against Iowa State. And Xavier's consistency seems to be breaking down over the last month.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): (9)West Virginia+10, (4)Connecticut+10, (6)Creighton+3, (2)Marquette+4, @(4)Connecticut+3, (11)Providence+OT, @(11)Providence+5, =(6)Creighton+22, =(14)Kennesaw St.+5
- Losses to tournament teams (6): (4)Indiana-2, =(5)Duke-7, =(3)Gonzaga-4, @(6)Creighton-17, @(2)Marquette-1, =(2)Marquette-14
- Other losses (3): @DePaul-1, @Butler-2, Villanova-1
Overview: Xavier has a good consistency rating but it seems to be mostly due to the first half of the season when they actually were very consistent. Lately they've been a bit all over the place, upside and downside. Early losses to 4-seed Indiana, 5-seed Duke, and 3-seed Gonzaga were offset by wins over 9-seed West Virginia, 4-seed UConn, 6-seed Creighton, and 2-seed Marquette as part of an 11-game win streak through mid-January. Losses to DePaul and Butler harmed their résumé but they beat UConn and Creighton again, as well as 11-seed Providence twice in going 15-5 in Big East play with and finishing 2nd to Marquette in the conference tournament.
Point guard Souley Boum leads the team with 16.5 ppg and 4.4 assists. The Musketeers are a tall team with tall guards and 7-0 center Jack Nunge. 2nd leading scorer Zack Freemantle was lost in late January, roughly corresponding to the time when Xavier started to get less consistent—but kept playing just as well on average. It may mean a deeper run is less likely, though. The Musketeers were down 13 with 10 minutes to play and rallied for a 72-67 win Jerome Hunter scoring 24 points.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): (16)Fairleigh Dickinson+22, @(7)Northwestern+29, @(11)N.C. State+8, (4)Virginia+3, (5)Miami FL+3, =(11)Mississippi St.+1, =(6)Iowa St.+18
- Losses to tournament teams (5): (9)West Virginia-25, =(12)VCU-4, @(5)Duke-8, @(5)Miami FL-2, =(5)Duke-27
- Other losses (6): =Michigan-31, @Vanderbilt-1, Clemson-1, Florida St.-7, @Virginia Tech-7, @Notre Dame-7
Overview: Pittsburgh peaked early. Not really early, when they lost to 9-seed West Virginia 81-56 and to Michigan 91-60. But several games later, after they had destroyed 7-seed Northwestern 87-58 on the road, and won early ACC games vs. 11-seed NC State and 4-seed Virginia, as well as pre-season #1 North Carolina. Things continued to go well until the loss to Florida State at home; even though they rallied for a 6-game win streak, it included most of the ACC's worst teams—Louisville, FSU, BC. Another bad loss—Notre Dame—hit them late, and they played their worst in losing 96-69 to Duke in the ACC tournament. They barely made the Big Dance and made the most of it by beating fellow 11-seed Mississippi State, however.
Blake Hinson leads the team with 15.5 points and 6.1 rebounds per game. Pitt raced to a 22-2 lead over iowa State and won 59-41 with Nelly Cummings scoring 13.
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Game Analysis: Both teams are in the top 25 on offense, but play defense well outside the top 50. The difference is in degree—Xavier plays top 10 offense while Pitt's D is below the top 100. Still, that means each side of the court is a mismatch in favor of the team with the ball, so in that respect it's pretty even.
What can Pitt do to maximize their offensive advantage while minimizing their defensive deficiency? The obvious answer is three-point shooting. The Panthers shoot the three very well and very often, and Xavier doesn't defend it all that well. That could level the playing field. It's why Pitt is so inconsistent—their gameplay follow their 3 point shooting.
Of course, Xavier shoots 3's even better that Pitt, but not as often; that's because they are almost as good on 2-pointers relatively. It's a big reason they're so consistent—they don't rely on one type of shot like Pitt does.
Clearly, though, if both teams play like their first round game? Pitt wins in a walk. Or their last 2 games, for that matter.
Vegas Line:
Xavier by 5 1/2
Power rating: spread
Xavier by 5.2
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Xavier: 62.3%
Pitt: 37.7%
3-seeds beat 11-seed about 64% of the time so Xavier's odds here line up pretty well with history. The Strength power rating agrees almost spot on with Vegas, too. Not much to add here.
Bottom line: If Pitt makes their threes, Xavier can do the same. You have to expect Pitt to shoot 3s well and Xavier to shoot both the 2 and the three poorly to expect a Pitt win. We're expecting Xavier, of course, to shake off their problems from the last two games, otherwise they're going home fast.
Final prediction: Xavier 80, Pittsburgh 75
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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