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Kansas State Wildcats
Seed: 3
Record: 24-9
Conference: Big Twelve
vs.
Kentucky Wildcats
Seed: 6
Record: 22-11
Conference: SEC
Date: Sunday, March 19
Time: 2:40 pm Eastern
Region: CBS
Location: Greensboro, NC
Channel: CBS
Wildcats fight in a SEC/Big Twelve Challenge sequel.
Kansas State Kentucky
Power Ratings
Strength: #20 Strength: #26
Median: #27 Median: #38
Markov: #25 Markov: #40
Pomeroy: #24 Pomeroy: #28
Offense: #51 Offense: #14
Defense: #19 Defense: #71
BPI: #31 BPI: #15
LRMC: #30 LRMC: #28
Other Measures:
SOS: #11 SOS: #43
Tempo (Offense): #44 Tempo (Offense): #172
Consistency: #115 Consistency: #342
Str + Reliability: #19 Str + Reliability: #49
Str + Potential: #38 Str + Potential: #15
2nd half season: #22 2nd half season: #30
Last 6: #21 Last 6: #9
Injury Mod Rank: #21 Injury Mod Rank: #27
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: NA Final 4: #11
Sweet 16: NA Sweet 16: #33
Overall Kansas State is a bit of a weak 3-seed; their #20 Strength implies a 5-seed and its their strongest ranking in the power ratings, with Pomeroy at #24 and BPI and LRMC in the low 30's. Kentucky, a strong 6-seed, is nearly their equal in Strength and Pomeroy and bests them easily in the BPI. The LRMC is about even but still gives UK the slight advantage.
Kansas State's strength is defense while Kentucky's is offense; this leads to a great game on paper when UK has the ball, and a lower-level but still very even contest on the other side of the floor.
Kansas State is fairly reliable while Kentucky has had its very notable ups and downs this year, leading to one of the lowest Consistency scores in the nation. They've played really well lately, while Kansas State has played about the same as usual. Kentucky's hope for a deep run depends on them playing at their best; how long can that last?
Despite their strong power ratings K-State was screened out of even the Sweet Sixteen in the MegaScreen, while Kentucky slipped into the rankings but at pretty low values.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): =(11)Nevada+OT, (9)West Virginia+OT, @(2)Texas+13, @(3)Baylor+OT, (1)Kansas+OT, (6)TCU+21, (6)Iowa St.+6, (3)Baylor+10, =(14)Montana St.+12
- Losses to tournament teams (6): @(6)TCU-14, @(6)Iowa St.-4, @(1)Kansas-12, (2)Texas-3, @(9)West Virginia-8, =(6)TCU-13
- Other losses (3): @Butler-12, @Texas Tech-8, @Oklahoma-14
Overview: Kansas State wasn't taken seriously early on. They needed overtime to beat 11-seed Nevada and lost to Butler, and their pre-Big Twelve schedule was pretty easy so going 11-1 didn't impress. They beat 9-seed West Virginia in overtime at home but it was the road win at Texas, 116-103, that caught people's attention, and wins over 3-seed Baylor and 1-seed Kansas (both in overtime) didn't hurt.
The 'Cats were 17-2 and hit some turbulence and lost 5 of 7, beating only Florida and 6-seed TCU in that span. But two of the losses were to Kansas and Texas, and K-State righted the ship with a 4-game win streak, adding wins over 6-seed Iowa State and another over Baylor while making quick work of both dangerous Oklahoma teams. They did disappoint a bit at the end, falling to West Virginia and then TCU 80-67 in one of their worst performances, but nothing comes easy in the Big Twelve.
Kansas State is led by forward Keontae Johnson with 17.7 points and 7.0 rebounds per game, while 5-8 point guard Markquise Nowell adds 16.8 points and 7.6 assists. Overall K-State is a very short team, #311 in the country in average height. Johnson had 18 and Nowell 17 in the win over Montana State.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): (16)Howard+32, @(4)Tennessee+7, (7)Texas A&M+9, @(11)Mississippi St.+3, (4)Tennessee+12, (9)Auburn+32, @(8)Arkansas+9, =(11)Providence+8
- Losses to tournament teams (7): =(7)Michigan St.-OT, @(3)Gonzaga-16, =(2)UCLA-10, @(7)Missouri-14, @(1)Alabama-26, (1)Kansas-9, (8)Arkansas-15
- Other losses (4): South Carolina-3, @Georgia-7, Vanderbilt-2, =Vanderbilt-7
Overview: Kentucky started the season ranked #4 in the polls and started off 7-2, winning big against weak teams while falling to 7-seed Michigan State in overtime and to 3-seed Gonzaga 88-72. Then they hit the skids, losing 4 of the next 7 to 2-seed UCLA, 7-seed Missouri, and 1-seed Alabama, but worst of all, to 11-21 South Carolina at home. That's when the eulogies for the Wildcat season were being read, and with good cause. Right on cue they played their best game so far beating 4-seed Tennessee 63-56 on the road and winning 10 of 13 from there. Along the way they were still erratic, losing to 16-16 Georgia but beating the Vols again. At the end an incredible 86-54 win over 9-seed Auburn was followed by a bad home loss to Vanderbilt which was followed by a road win over 8-seed Arkansas which was followed by yet another loss to Vandy. Kentucky just can't buy any consistency, so what they do next is anyone's guess: Final Four or First Round exit.
There's no doubt the Wildcats have amazing talent, and Oscar Tshiebwe is one of the nation's best, averaging 16.5 points per game and 13.1 rebounds. Tshiebwe garnered an amazing 25 rebounds against Providence including 11 offensive rebounds while Antonio Reeves led in scoring with 22 points.
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Game Analysis: Starting with the higher-level side of the court: When Kentucky has the ball. Kentucky's main issue is poor shooting, and K-State defends the three-point line very well. They're not as good at defending 2-pointers, which is good for Kentucky. They're also not a great rebounding team, which is great news for Kentucky since they're a great offensive rebounding team mostly due to Tshiebwe who is on a tear. So they can miss their shots with impunity knowing he's going to get the rebound. That's not quite true and missing shots isn't a great strategy, but you get the point.
Kansas State on D has to limit fouls and go for steals, while on offense they need to limit turnovers themselves. Basically they need a plan to deal with Tshiebwe inside, on both sides of the court, and the rest should take care of itself. If FDU can make a plan to deal with Edey then Kansas State can limit Tshiebwe. They're a short team but much taller than Fairleigh Dickinson. Compared to that job, this one should be easy.
Vegas Line:
Kentucky by 3
Power rating: spread
Kansas St by 0.2
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Kansas St: 49.2%
Kentucky: 50.8%
Very interesting odds out of Vegas, with Kentucky the favorite. It's not that surprising given the mixed results of the power ratings; it looks like the BPI is the most influential here as the BPI prediction for the game is Kentucky by 2.7, while Pomeroy has K-State by a point. But it might be the rebounding discrepancy that Vegas feels gives Kentucky the edge. It's a good argument, I made it myself. Also over the last six games, Strength gives UK a 3.1 point edge.
3-seeds beat 6-seeds about 60% of the time, but here we see almost exactly even odds.
Bottom line: There are very good arguments for Kentucky to win this game, but I'm not confident they can put two good performances in a row together. Plus I had K-State advancing in my bracket and I need to stick with them as a rule.
Final prediction: Kansas State 82, Kentucky 78 OT
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