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Kansas State Wildats
Seed: 3
Record: 23-9
Conference: Big Twelve
vs.
Montana State Bobcats
Seed: 14
Record: 25-9
Conference: Big Sky
Date: Friday, March 17
Time: 9:40 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Columbus, OH
Channel: CBS
Bobcats vs. Wildcats. Aren't those the same thing?
Kansas State Montana State
Power Ratings
Strength: #20 Strength: #113
Median: #27 Median: #107
Markov: #25 Markov: #125
Pomeroy: #24 Pomeroy: #110
Offense: #51 Offense: #166
Defense: #19 Defense: #71
BPI: #31 BPI: #109
LRMC: #30 LRMC: #101
Other Measures:
SOS: #11 SOS: #212
Tempo (Offense): #44 Tempo (Offense): #271
Consistency: #115 Consistency: #42
Str + Reliability: #19 Str + Reliability: #88
Str + Potential: #38 Str + Potential: #139
2nd half season: #22 2nd half season: #114
Last 6: #19 Last 6: #120
Injury Mod Rank: #21 Injury Mod Rank: #113
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: NA Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: NA Sweet 16: #43
Overall Kansas State is a bit of a weak 3-seed; their #20 Strength implies a 5-seed and its their strongest ranking in the power ratings, with Pomeroy at #24 and BPI and LRMC in the low 30's. Montana State is a decent 14-seed ranking around #110 with their LRMC near #100. In terms of Offense and Defense Kansas State has a great defense rating at #19 but their offense lags at #51. Montana also grades out better on defense but only at #71 while their offense is a woeful #166.
The two teams' schedules aren't comparable; K-State plays in the Big Twelve and has faced killers every time out for months. Montana State's Big Sky slate isn't in the top 200. There's a tempo clash coming, too, as K-State plays it fast on offense and Montana State slows things down a bit. Both teams are pretty consistent, especially Montana State; their better-than-50 ranking suggests they are unlikely to have an outlier game needed to beat a much-better opponent. They're so consistent that their 2nd Half and Last 6 rankings are pretty much the same as their Strength rating for the whole season; it's one homogenous batch of games. K-State is the same.
Despite their strong power ratings K-State was screened out of even the Sweet Sixteen in the MegaScreen, while Montana State somehow qualified but at a low #43.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): =(11)Nevada+OT, (9)West Virginia+OT, @(2)Texas+13, @(3)Baylor+OT, (1)Kansas+OT, (6)TCU+21, (6)Iowa St.+6, (3)Baylor+10
- Losses to tournament teams (6): @(6)TCU-14, @(6)Iowa St.-4, @(1)Kansas-12, (2)Texas-3, @(9)West Virginia-8, =(6)TCU-13
- Other losses (3): @Butler-12, @Texas Tech-8, @Oklahoma-14
Overview: Kansas State wasn't taken seriously early on. They needed overtime to beat 11-seed Nevada and lost to Butler, and their pre-Big Twelve schedule was pretty easy so going 11-1 didn't impress. They beat 9-seed West Virginia in overtime at home but it was the road win at Texas, 116-103, that caught people's attention, and wins over 3-seed Baylor and 1-seed Kansas (both in overtime) didn't hurt.
The 'Cats were 17-2 and hit some turbulence and lost 5 of 7, beating only Florida and 6-seed TCU in that span. But two of the losses were to Kansas and Texas, and K-State righted the ship with a 4-game win streak, adding wins over 6-seed Iowa State and another over Baylor while making quick work of both dangerous Oklahoma teams. They did disappoint a bit at the end, falling to West Virginia and then TCU 80-67 in one of their worst performances, but nothing comes easy in the Big Twelve.
Kansas State is led by forward Keontae Johnson with 17.7 points and 7.0 rebounds per game, while 5-8 point guard Markquise Nowell adds 16.8 points and 7.6 assists. Overall K-State is a very short team, #311 in the country in average height.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (2): @(14)Grand Canyon-6, @(2)Arizona-21
- Other losses (7): @Oregon-30, =UNC Greensboro-11, =Quinnipiac-17, =Middle Tennessee-1, Eastern Washington-3, @Idaho-4, @Weber St.-10
Overview: Montana State had a rough start, losing to 14-seed Grand Canyon in the opener, to Oregon 81-51, and a trio of games in a row in Quebec at the Northern Classic including a dismal 70-53 loss to Quinnipiac. Returning to the states the Bobcats found consistency as they faced an easier schedule (with the exception of 2-seed Arizona) and pretty soon they were in contention for the Big Sky conference crown. They beat regular season winner Eastern Washington in the season final and won three tournament games to capture the NCAA bid.
The Bobcats' leading scorer is guard RaeQuan Battle at 17.4 points per game.
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Game Analysis: Montana State's isn't very good on offense; they don't shoot the two very well and are awful (32%) behind the arc. What they can do well is get fouled, and they hit their free throws at a solid 76.3% clip, making free throws a major focus of their offense. In fact they are #3 in terms of getting production from the free throw line. It's not a great strategy to base an offense around, but their defense is good enough to shut down the level of opponent they are used to, so it works.
Kansas State fouls a lot on defense. This plays right into Montana State's hands. K-State's skill in contesting shots? Wasted on poor shooting Montana State. Just send them to the free throw line. Skill at creating turnovers? Might work, but Montana State protects the ball pretty well. This all sounds silly but many a team has stayed in a game longer than they should by making free throws. There's also the chance key K-State players get in foul trouble, and that could be a problem later on.
As you can see I'm trying to come up with a scenario where Montana State wins this game. Free throws is it, because that's about the only way they're going to have success against K-State's defense. When K-State has the ball the Wildcats and the Bobcats are more evenly matched. The Wildcats have trouble with blocks and steals, and are mediocre shooters. The thing is, they get to the foul line a lot, too, and Montana State fouls quite a bit on defense. So we could have a game that turns into a free throw battle.
If that happens the Bobcats still have a chance, as they shoot 76.3% to K-State's 75%. Over enough free throws that manifests into an advantage.
Vegas Line:
Kansas State by 8 1/2
Power rating: spread
Kansas State by 10.1
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Kansas State: 77.8%
Montana State: 22.2%
Surprisingly Montana State shows a 22% chance of winning by the game-comparison method, much higher than the normal 15% chance for a 14-seed against a 3-seed. The Bobcats are so consistent I figured their odds would be minuscule. The Strength power rating favors K-State by 10 points while Vegas goes with just 8 1/2.
Bottom line: There will likely be more to this game than free throws, unfortunately for the Bobcats. We're ignoring that some of the stats that are "even" between the Bobcats and Wildcats are based on a very different set of opponents. In the end Keontae Johnson and Markquise Nowell should find it easier to operate on offense against the Bobcats than most of the Big Twelve teams they've been battling for the last few months.
Final prediction: Kansas State 74, Montana State 65
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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