All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Seed: 3
Record: 29-5
Conference: West Coast
vs.
TCU Horned Frogs
Seed: 6
Record: 22-12
Conference: Big Twelve
Date: Sunday, March 19
Time: 8:40 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Denver, CO
Channel: TBS
Can the Zags make the Sweet Sixteen for the 7th straight tournament?
Gonzaga TCU
Power Ratings
Strength: #6 Strength: #18
Median: #6 Median: #18
Markov: #9 Markov: #19
Pomeroy: #7 Pomeroy: #25
Offense: #1 Offense: #51
Defense: #75 Defense: #23
BPI: #8 BPI: #28
LRMC: #8 LRMC: #20
Other Measures:
SOS: #65 SOS: #30
Tempo (Offense): #33 Tempo (Offense): #45
Consistency: #307 Consistency: #350
Str + Reliability: #7 Str + Reliability: #45
Str + Potential: #4 Str + Potential: #10
2nd half season: #2 2nd half season: #16
Last 6: #2 Last 6: #26
Injury Mod Rank: #4 Injury Mod Rank: #12
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: NA Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #3 Sweet 16: NA
Gonzaga is a killer 3-seed, ranking #6 in Strength, #8 in Pomeroy and #8 in BPI and LRMC. They have the #1 offense in the country but play poorly on defense most of the time, resulting in a #75 efficiency rating. But with the #1 offense it usually doesn't matter. TCU is a pretty tough 6-seed at #18 Strength and #25 Pomeroy, with the #51 offense and #23 on defense.
The main thing that gives TCU a better shot than normal is both teams' inconsistency. They both have up and down games to a much greater degree than most teams, so the chances of TCU having an "up" game and Gonzaga having a "down" game are better when things are shaken up this much. Both teams play at a fast tempo which does lead to greater variance in scoring, but also tends to favor the favorite. Gonzaga has been playing well lately, TCU not so much.
Gonzaga is a shoo-in for the Sweet 16 according to the MegaScreen, which screens the Zags out of Final Four contention due to their weak defense. The Zags have made the Sweet Sixten six tournaments in a row now.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): =(7)Michigan St.+1, (6)Kentucky+16, =(3)Xavier+4, (13)Kent St.+7, @(1)Alabama+10, (5)Saint Mary's+9, =(5)Saint Mary's+26, =(14)Grand Canyon+12
- Losses to tournament teams (4): @(2)Texas-19, =(1)Purdue-18, =(3)Baylor-1, @(5)Saint Mary's-OT
- Other losses (1): Loyola Marymount-1
Overview: Gonzaga is always one of the teams to watch, especially in the pre-conference season when they mix it up with some of the nation's best. This year the Zags: beat 7-seed Michigan by one point aboard an aircraft carrier; fell to 2-seed Texas 93-74; and beat 6-seed Kentucky 88-72. And that was just in the first four games! In another 3-game stretch the Bulldogs lost to Purdue, 84-66, beat 3-seed Xavier 88-84 (both in one of the Portland Phil Knight tournaments), and fell to Baylor by a point playing in South Dakota for some reason. Their last big non-conference challenge was overall 1-seed Alabama, whom they beat 100-90 in Birmingham, making them 1-1 against 1-seed this season.
In the WCC Gonzaga coasted as usual waiting for the big matchup with 5-seed Saint Mary's but were tripped up by Loyola Marymount on the way, breaking their 76-game home win streak (they won the rematch on the road 108-65). They lost in overtime to the Gaels on the road, beat them at home 77-68, then thrashed them 77-51 in their West Coast Conference tournament final.
Senior Drew Timme, who seemingly has been around forever, is the team's leader. He averages 20.9 points and 7.3 rebounds per game. Three other Zags average in double figures including Julian Strawther who led against Grand Canyon with 28.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): =(8)Iowa+13, (11)Providence+13, @(3)Baylor+1, (3)Kansas St.+14, @(1)Kansas+23, (9)West Virginia+4, (2)Texas+2, =(3)Kansas St.+13, =(11)Arizona St.+2
- Losses to tournament teams (9): (6)Iowa St.-2, @(2)Texas-4, @(9)West Virginia-9, @(11)Mississippi St.-OT, @(3)Kansas St.-21, (3)Baylor-4, @(6)Iowa St.-11, (1)Kansas-5, =(2)Texas-6
- Other losses (3): Northwestern St.-1, @Oklahoma St.-6, @Oklahoma-14
Overview: Perhaps the most remarkable thing about TCU's season is their first three games. The green bar at "0" is the Horned Frogs' average game level. They beat Arkansas Pine-Bluff at home by a point, beat Lamar by 11 at home, then lost to Northwestern State by a point at home. The Frogs almost started the year as bad as Louisville*! (*the Cardinals lost three home games by a point each to terrible teams to kick off their 4-28 season)
But somehow, suddenly, the team was great. Seriously, wtf? Leading scorer Mike Miles (17.3ppg) missed the Northwestern State loss and #2 scorer Damion Baugh (12.6) missed the first six games, but the team was suddenly good at game four against Louisiana Monroe, a 95-60 win. Two games later they beat 8-seed Iowa 79-66, then 11-seed Providence 75-62. And in early January, 3-seed Baylor 88-87 on the road. How does this happen? No wonder the team's Consistency rating is #350—a lot of it is due to those first three games!
In any case after the 13-1 start TCU went 8-11, losing to pretty much the whole Big Twelve plus 11-seed Mississippi State, but beating 3-seed Kansas State, 1-seed Kansas (83-60 on the road!), 9-seed West Virginia, 2-seed Texas, and 3-seed Kansas State again to insure an at-large bid. Mike Miles had 26 in the opening round win over Arizona State.
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Game Analysis: In case it's not obvious, look at Gonzaga's chart and compare the games where they are motivated vs. the ones where they aren't. Compare the last game, Grand Canyon, vs. the game before it, St. Mary's, and the game before that, San Francisco. The Bulldogs had defeated San Francisco on the road and were playing at home, and won by 11. They beat Grand Canyon by 12. St. Mary's had beaten the Bulldogs earlier in the year. Same for game 27, Loyola Marymount. Seem like they were a little motivated to make a statement there? The question is, will they beat that motivated against TCU, or do they expect to waltz into the Sweet Sixteen as they have the last six tournaments in a row?
TCU wasn't playing well entering the tournament and their 2 point win over Arizona State doesn't do much to change that viewpoint. Their terrible 3-point shooting makes it seem unlikely they can come back from any deficit, but their pedestrian 2-point shooting might be good enough to keep them in the game against the porous Zag defense. TCU's own defensive play is good, of course, but on offense Gonzaga has the #1 2-point shooting in the country, doesn't turn the ball over or get their shots blocked.
Vegas Line:
Gonzaga by 4 1/2
Power rating: spread
Gonzaga by 4.9
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Gonzaga: 60.8%
TCU: 39.2%
3-seeds beat 6-seeds about 61% of the time...well look at that. And agreement as usual between the sportsbooks and power ratings.
Bottom line: I don't expect to see Motivated Gonzaga this game, just "take care of business and get to the Sweet Sixteen again" Gonzaga. TCU isn't playing all that well and that should be enough.
Final prediction: Gonzaga 81, TCU 77
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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