All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Seed: 3
Record: 28-5
Conference: West Coast
vs.
Grand Canyon Lopes (Antelopes)
Seed: 14
Record: 24-11
Conference: WAC
Date: Friday, March 17
Time: 7:35 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Denver, CO
Channel: truTV
It's the Zags vs. the Lopes. To quote Apollo Creed, sounds like a damn monster movie.
Gonzaga Grand Canyon
Power Ratings
Strength: #5 Strength: #107
Median: #6 Median: #120
Markov: #9 Markov: #115
Pomeroy: #8 Pomeroy: #109
Offense: #1 Offense: #54
Defense: #76 Defense: #198
BPI: #8 BPI: #94
LRMC: #8 LRMC: #102
Other Measures:
SOS: #65 SOS: #201
Tempo (Offense): #33 Tempo (Offense): #261
Consistency: #307 Consistency: #131
Str + Reliability: #7 Str + Reliability: #97
Str + Potential: #4 Str + Potential: #112
2nd half season: #2 2nd half season: #109
Last 6: #2 Last 6: #50
Injury Mod Rank: #4 Injury Mod Rank: #105
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: NA Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #3 Sweet 16: #40
Gonzaga is a killer 3-seed, ranking #5 in Strength and #8 in Pomeroy, BPI, and LRMC. They have the #1 offense in the country but play poorly on defense most of the time, resulting in a #76 efficiency rating. But with the #1 offense it usually doesn't matter. Grand Canyon ranges around #100, but note that they play solid offense at #54, enough to score on the #76 defense. The problem is their own defense, which is around #200, having to take on the #1 offense in the nation.
Grand Canyon plays a slower pace while Gonzaga likes to push the tempo. Perhaps as a result the Zags are a bit inconsistent in performance, but they remain a top ten team under most circumstances so it's not like that gives the Lopes a big opening. And Gonzaga is playing their best right now—they rank #2 in Strength for both the 2nd half of the season and for their last 6 games. Grand Canyon has really upped their game lately, too, but the gap is still huge.
Gonzaga is a shoo-in for the Sweet 16 according to the MegaScreen, which screens the Zags out of Final Four contention due to their weak defense. Grand Canyon surprisingly makes the grade for the Sweet 16 but is pretty far down the list.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): =(7)Michigan St.+1, (6)Kentucky+16, =(3)Xavier+4, (13)Kent St.+7, @(1)Alabama+10, (5)Saint Mary's+9, =(5)Saint Mary's+26
- Losses to tournament teams (4): @(2)Texas-19, =(1)Purdue-18, =(3)Baylor-1, @(5)Saint Mary's-OT
- Other losses (1): Loyola Marymount-1
Overview: Gonzaga is always one of the teams to watch, especially in the pre-conference season when they mix it up with some of the nation's best. This year the Zags: beat 7-seed Michigan by one point aboard an aircraft carrier; fell to 2-seed Texas 93-74; and beat 6-seed Kentucky 88-72. And that was just in the first four games! In another 3-game stretch the Bulldogs lost to Purdue, 84-66, beat 3-seed Xavier 88-84 (both in one of the Portland Phil Knight tournaments), and fell to Baylor by a point playing in South Dakota for some reason. Their last big non-conference challenge was overall 1-seed Alabama, whom they beat 100-90 in Birmingham, making them 1-1 against 1-seed this season.
In the WCC Gonzaga coasted as usual waiting for the big matchup with 5-seed Saint Mary's but were tripped up by Loyola Marymount on the way, breaking their 76-game home win streak (they won the rematch on the road 108-65). They lost in overtime to the Gaels on the road, beat them at home 77-68, then thrashed them 77-51 in their West Coast Conference tournament final.
Senior Drew Timme, who seemingly has been around forever, is the team's leader. He averages 20.9 points and 7.3 rebounds per game. Three other Zags average in double figures.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (1): (14)Montana St.+6
- Losses to tournament teams (1): @(11)Nevada-13
- Other losses (10): =Wichita St.-12, Loyola Marymount-4, North Texas-2, @Stephen F. Austin-5, @Cal Baptist-5, Utah Valley-2, @Tarleton St.-19, @Seattle-5, UT Rio Grande Valley-1, Seattle-11
Overview: Grand Canyon had a rough go of things until winning four games to capture the WAC crown. In their very first game they beat 14-seed Montana State, their only tournament-field win. Two games later they fell to 11-seed Nevada, their only tournament-field loss. The Lopes alternated winning and losing all year, never losing more than two in a row nor winning more than four in a row in the regular season. The four wins in the WAC tournament gave them their longest streak, at six games, and was the first time they really played both well and consistently for several straight games. They beat Southern Utah twice in that stretch, including an 84-66 win in the WAC final.
The Lopes are led by Rashon Harrison's 17.7 points and 3.6 assists per game.
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Game Analysis: When Gonzaga is motivated they are probably the best team in the country. Note the rematch with Loyola Marymount, the team that ended their 76-game home win streak. After losing at home by 1 point, they won on the road by 43 points. The same goes for St. Mary's, who beat them in overtime in their first game. Gonzaga won the 2nd game by 9 points and the rubber match by 26.
The question now is, does Grand Canyon have a chance? After all they're about the same quality as Loyola Marymount, who upset Gonzaga in Spokane. The Lopes are peaking at the right time to do it, and Gonzaga is an inconsistent team. And Gonzaga's weak defensive play can definitely be exploited by solid offensive play by the Lopes.
So yes, there's a chance. But no, it's not very good. Gonzaga is on a roll, too. As much as the Lopes have upped their game, so have the Zags upped theirs. Gonzaga is basically going to score at will against the Antelopes' porous defense. The only chance Grand Canyon has is to let the 3-pointers fly and hope they fall. The Lopes shoot almost 38% from the 3-point line and they shoot it a lot. Granted, most of the teams they play will defend even worse than Gonzaga, but it's their one hope and they should definitely give that strategy a try. That's basically what UMBC did to beat Virginia as a 16-seed. Of course, as a fast-paced team Gonzaga is better prepared to come back from such a barrage.
Vegas Line:
Gonzaga by 15
Power rating: spread
Gonzaga by 14.9
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Gonzaga: 83.7%
Grand Canyon: 16.3%
The Strength power rating and Vegas agree almost to a T on the spread. Gonzaga's 84% chance to win corresponds pretty well with the historical 85.1% odds for a 3-seed to beat a 14-seed.
Bottom line: Gonzaga already got upset by a team like this earlier in the season; they should be prepared to play like they did in the Loyola Marymount rematch, not the first game. I think Grand Canyon will have success on offense hitting 3-pointers but the Zags will have their way on the other side of the court.
Final prediction: Gonzaga 91, Grand Canyon 76
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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