All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Baylor Bears
Seed: 3
Record: 23-10
Conference: Big Twelve
vs.
Creighton Bluejays
Seed: 6
Record: 22-12
Conference: Big East
Date: Sunday, March 19
Time: 7:10 pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Denver, CO
Channel: TBS
One of the tightest 3 vs. 6 matchups you will find.
Baylor Creighton
Power Ratings
Strength: #13 Strength: #12
Median: #9 Median: #12
Markov: #15 Markov: #13
Pomeroy: #14 Pomeroy: #13
Offense: #2 Offense: #29
Defense: #98 Defense: #14
BPI: #10 BPI: #11
LRMC: #18 LRMC: #14
Other Measures:
SOS: #6 SOS: #13
Tempo (Offense): #203 Tempo (Offense): #131
Consistency: #232 Consistency: #177
Str + Reliability: #16 Str + Reliability: #12
Str + Potential: #13 Str + Potential: #19
2nd half season: #9 2nd half season: #8
Last 6: #45 Last 6: #23
Injury Mod Rank: #11(37?) Injury Mod Rank: #9
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: NA Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: NA Sweet 16: #12
Baylor is a solid 3-seed as seen by their Strength rating of #13, Pomeroy of #14, BPI of #10, and slightly lagging LRMC of #18. Their Median game play is in the top ten, and on offense they're the #2 team in the nation. But they don't make our MegaScreen rating for the Final Four or even the Sweet Sixteen largely because of their Defensive Efficiency that is barely under triple-digits.
And if Baylor is a solid 3-seed, what does that make Creighton as a 6? They rank like a 3-seed themselves, with a Strength and Pomeroy ranking 1 spot ahead of the Bears, and BPI one spot behind. The pre-tournament LRMC had them 4 spots ahead. The Bluejays are ahead in our Markov chain but a few spots back in Median.
Both teams played a killer schedule, with tough non-conference slates. Tempo shouldn't be a big factor as both teams are pretty moderate there. And both squads had success in the last half of the season, though both have hit some turbulence lately, Baylor a bit more than Creighton. Baylor's injury situation is clearing up a bit, as Langston Love played 5 minutes in the first round win over UCSB. But that doesn't mean he's close to 100% and Baylor is a lot better when he's fully healthy.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): =(2)UCLA+5, =(3)Gonzaga+1, @(9)West Virginia+5, (1)Kansas+6, (8)Arkansas+3, @(6)TCU+4, (9)West Virginia+12, (2)Texas+9, =(14)UC Santa Barbara+18
- Losses to tournament teams (10): =(4)Virginia-7, @(2)Marquette-26, @(6)Iowa St.-15, (6)TCU-1, (3)Kansas St.-OT, @(2)Texas-5, @(1)Kansas-16, @(3)Kansas St.-10, (6)Iowa St.-15, =(6)Iowa St.-6
- Other losses (0): None
Overview: Baylor started strong with a 64-point win(!) over Mississippi Valley State, and played a tough non-conference schedule, losing to 4-seed Virginia and 2-seed Marquette but beating 2-seed UCLA and 3-seed Gonzaga. That was good practice for the Big Twelve where 2/3 of their foes are in the tournament and the other three are dangerous. They Bears went 5-8 against those tournament teams and beat 8-seed Arkansas along the way. The Bears went 1-1 vs. 1-seed Kansas and 2-seed Texas but 0-2 against 3-seed Kansas State and 0-3 vs. 6-seed Iowa State, to whom they lost the last two games of the year. In their lower-ranked last six games they lost 4 times but also beat Texas.
Baylor is led by guards Keonte George, Adam Flagler, and LJ Cryer, who all average over 14 points per game. Flagler led with 18 points against UCSB in the 74-56 win.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (5): =(8)Arkansas+3, (11)Providence+6, (3)Xavier+17, (4)Connecticut+3, =(11)N.C. State+9
- Losses to tournament teams (9): =(2)Arizona-2, @(2)Texas-5, =(11)Arizona St.-2, @(2)Marquette-11, @(4)Connecticut-9, @(3)Xavier-3, @(11)Providence-OT, (2)Marquette-2, =(3)Xavier-22
- Other losses (3): Nebraska-10, =BYU-3, @Villanova-12
Overview: Creighton was an AP poll darling early and at 6-0 they had already beaten 8-seed Arkansas. Then they went on a 6-games skid and all that goodwill was squandered. They really only played one bad game—the home loss to Nebraska—in that stretch which included three 2-seeds (Arizona, Texas, and Marquette) as well as 11-seed ASU, plus BYU in Las Vegas. Two more losses quickly followed to 4-seed UConn and 3-seed Xavier but they held up in the power ratings so their comeback didn't surprise anyone knowledgable. The Bluejays won 8 straight, beating 11-seed Providence, 3-seed Xavier, and 4-seed UConn before hitting a bit more turbulence in the tough Big East. After three solid wins they got beat 82-60 by Xavier in their final outing which stands as their worst game. But they've come back from adversity before.
7-1 center Ryan Kalkbrenner is the team's leading scorer at 15.4 ppg; he was gone for three games during Creighton's 6-game skid, and counting just the game he has played the Bluejays are a top ten team in Strength. The Bluejays bounced back from the big Xavier loss with a solid 72-63 win over NC State behind Kalkbrenner's 31 points (10 of 13 FG).
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Game Analysis: Baylor plays nearly the best offense in the country, but around the #100 defense. That's going to catch up with them at some point before the Final Four, almost certainly. But will it be this game? It's probably going to be a very close one.
One interesting aspect is rebounding. On Creighton's side of the court both teams are poor at rebounding. That changes on the other side, where Baylor is excellent on offensive rebounding and Creighton the same on defense. Creighton's defense doesn't go for steals at all and defends the 2-point almost exclusively, which will leave Baylor's potent 3-point shots open. This is bad news for Creighton.
On the other hand, Creighton shoots 55% from inside the arc and Baylor is awful at defending the 2. Creighton is a much taller team with 7-1 Kalkbrenner who will match with 6-10 Flo Thamba at center. Both teams like to shoot the 3 a lot but the Bluejays may find more success on the inside.
And of course a close game often comes down to free throws. Creighton shoots over 77%, while Baylor shoots just under 75%. Even that makes it too close to call.
Vegas Line:
Baylor by 1 1/2
Power rating: spread
Creighton by 0.1
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Baylor: 48.9%
Creighton: 51.1%
Damn, that's a razor-tight game. The sportsbooks favor Baylor by a point and a half but Strength calls it a tossup or multi-overtime game with Creighton a 51% favorite. Looking at the other power ratings, Pomeroy has Creighton a 1-point favorite and the BPI has Baylor by 0.3 with the Bears a 51.2% favorite! Love it.
Historically the 3-seed wins about 61% of the time so Creighton is clearly a strong 6-seed as we've mentioned.
Bottom line: Sticking with Creighton to advance as planned. It's going to be a close one.
Final prediction: Creighton 74, Baylor 71
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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