All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Baylor Bears
Seed: 3
Record: 22-10
Conference: Big Twelve
vs.
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
Seed: 14
Record: 27-7
Conference: Big West
Date: Friday, March 17
Time: 1:30 pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Denver, CO
Channel: TNT
Is there any logical basis at all for a UCSB upset? Only the same one we used to (almost) pick St. Peter's over Kentucky last year.
Baylor UCSB
Power Ratings
Strength: #12 Strength: #116
Median: #9 Median: #89
Markov: #15 Markov: #98
Pomeroy: #15 Pomeroy: #102
Offense: #2 Offense: #71
Defense: #104 Defense: #163
BPI: #12 BPI: #123
LRMC: #18 LRMC: #93
Other Measures:
SOS: #6 SOS: #186
Tempo (Offense): #203 Tempo (Offense): #312
Consistency: #232 Consistency: #75
Str + Reliability: #16 Str + Reliability: #101
Str + Potential: #13 Str + Potential: #134
2nd half season: #12 2nd half season: #118
Last 6: #60 Last 6: #63
Injury Mod Rank: #11(53?) Injury Mod Rank: #115
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: NA Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: NA Sweet 16: NA
Baylor is a solid 3-seed as seen by their Strength rating of #12, Pomeroy of #15, BPI of #12, and slightly lagging LRMC of #18. Their Median game play is in the top ten, and on offense they're the #2 team in the nation. But they don't make our MegaScreen rating for the Final Four or even the Sweet Sixteen largely because of their Defensive Efficiency ranking over #100.
That doesn't apply to this game, which is to get to the Round of 32. And USCB doesn't make the screens either. The Gauchos don't just have one number over 100—most of their rankings are over 100 or very close. UCSB's offense is actually better than Baylor's defense at #71. Their own defense is a pretty dismal #163, though.
The Gauchos play very slow on offense and Baylor's is moderate, so expect a slower tempo overall. Most of the unpredictability in the game should come from Baylor's side as the Gauchos are fairly reliable. Baylor's injury situation is worth noting, as Langston Love may be out with an eye injury and they've played like the #53 team without him. This roughly corresponds with their last six games where Baylor ranks #60—almost the same as the surging Gauchos have over the same span.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): =(2)UCLA+5, =(3)Gonzaga+1, @(9)West Virginia+5, (1)Kansas+6, (8)Arkansas+3, @(6)TCU+4, (9)West Virginia+12, (2)Texas+9
- Losses to tournament teams (10): =(4)Virginia-7, @(2)Marquette-26, @(6)Iowa St.-15, (6)TCU-1, (3)Kansas St.-OT, @(2)Texas-5, @(1)Kansas-16, @(3)Kansas St.-10, (6)Iowa St.-15, =(6)Iowa St.-6
- Other losses (0): None
Overview: Baylor started strong with a 64-point win(!) over Mississippi Valley State, and played a tough non-conference schedule, losing to 4-seed Virginia and 2-seed Marquette but beating 2-seed UCLA and 3-seed Gonzaga. That was good practice for the Big Twelve where 2/3 of their foes are in the tournament and the other three are dangerous. They Bears went 5-8 against those tournament teams and beat 8-seed Arkansas along the way. The Bears went 1-1 vs. 1-seed Kansas and 2-seed Texas but 0-2 against 3-seed Kansas State and 0-3 vs. 6-seed Iowa State, to whom they lost the last two games of the year. In their lower-ranked last six games they lost 4 times but also beat Texas.
Baylor is led by guards Keonte George, Adam Flagler, and LJ Cryer, who all average over 14 points per game.
**************************************************************
- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (0): None
- Other losses (7): @Northern Arizona-9, @Duquesne-11, UC Riverside-1, @Cal St. Northridge-5, UC Irvine-11, @UC Riverside-11, Cal St. Fullerton-14
Overview: UCSB didn't lose to any tournament teams the entire season. Probably because they didn't play any. The Gauchos had their share of bad games early including losses to Northern Arizona and Duquesne, and a win over non-D-I San Diego Christian by 13 points at home that counts as their worst effort. UCSB won most of their Big West games and after a 3-game skid they came alive, winning seven straight including the Big West tournament. Over the last six games they exceeded their offensive average by nearly 15 points per game, and were 8.5 points better overall.
6-5 point guard AJ Mitchell leads the team in points with 16.4 per game, in assists at 5.1, and steals with 1.4. The Gauchos are a tall team, #60 in the nation.
**************************************************************
Game Analysis: Only a few stats give UCSB much hope. One is that Baylor plays bad defense. UCSB's offense is just a bit better at #71. The downside is their own defense which at #163 will be facing the #2 offensive attack in the nation. Not too much hope there.
Another hope is for a slow tempo to keep things close. The Gauchos play very slow on offense and Baylor is moderate, so perhaps that keeps it closer than a fast game would. But UCSB is a pretty consistent team, unlikely to have an upside outlier game that they'd need to beat the Bears. They'll have to hope the Bears cooperate by playing a poor game of their own. That requires a lot of hope, probably too much.
Finally, there''s Baylor's injury situation. Without Langston Love the Bears have played at about the #53 level, which is a huge difference from #12. That sample covers six games where Love either didn't play or barely played, four of which were losses including the final two losses to Iowa State at the end. First off it's not too likely he makes that much of a difference; second, he's practicing with the team to see if he can come back; and third, even the #53 team beats UCSB (Strength rating #116) most of the time. In fact, the best team the Gauchos beat all year—UC Irvine—is #99 in KenPom.
There is one more thing: Baylor is playing like the #60 team in their last six games, while UCSB is just a bit behind at #63. Baylor's numbers are somewhat due to Love's absence but he's missed just three of those games. UCSB is playing 8.5 points better than normal over this span: actually, 14.8 points better on offense and 6.3 points worse on defense. It puts them neck-and-neck with the Bears during this recent stretch, and is the only argument of all the ones above that carries any weight at all. Is it enough to go on, even as a bracket strategy to capture a potential big upset that's admittedly not likely to happen? Depends on a lot of things, including how far you think Baylor will go. You make the call.
One caveat: it used to be the case—and maybe still is—that no team who hadn't played a team in the NCAA tournament field had ever won a tournament game. Not sure if that's still true—not that it really affects anything—but if you don't think that precedent will be broken, don't pick this upset.
Vegas Line:
Baylor by 10 1/2
Power rating: spread / Last six games spread
Baylor by 12.7 / 0.34
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win / Last six games
Baylor: 82.5% / 50%
UCSB: 17.5% / 50%
Normally a 14-seed wins 15% of the time, so even for the full season UCSB has better odds than historical chance. Our power rating has Baylor by a bit more than Vegas does.
Of course a lot changes in a small, 6-game sample. Every game magnifies the spread and the odds of winning. But it's pretty dramatic to see the spread go to less than a point and the odds go to 50/50. Small sample, obviously, but something to consider, especially if your bracket scoring rewards upsets.
Bottom line: Last year I looked at Kentucky vs. St. Peter's and noted how much better the Peacocks were playing over recent games. I figured out that they were suddenly the best defensive team in the nation. Still, they weren't equal to Kentucky and I wasn't going to pick a 15-seed to win based on a small-game sample like that, and I felt Kentucky would have a deep run.
Fast forward to this year when UCSB has had a big improvement over the last six games. This time, it looks like they've suddenly become the nation's best offense. Going up against a horrible Baylor defense. And a Baylor team that—because of their defense—I don't expect to go very deep. And it's a 14 vs. a 3, not a 15 vs. a 2. True, the Gauchos still have a terrible defense trying to guard Baylor, but unlike the Kentucky example, the teams are playing very close in quality over the last six games.
I had no intention of picking this upset when I started the review, and indeed was dismissing issues as quickly as I found them. But I didn't take the upset last year—which I don't really regret, as the conditions weren't right—but I can't pass it up this time because the conditions are right, as noted above. There's a good chance I'd have Baylor upset in the Round of 32 anyway. So it doesn't cost anything.
Final prediction: UCSB 82, Baylor 81 OT
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
Comments